Saratoga Picks for Friday, June 6 from Mike Somich:

For the third time in this Triple Crown cycle, the weather just does not want to cooperate with us. After two beautiful days to kick off the Belmont Festival on Wednesday and Thursday, the rains are forecasted to start around Noon on Friday. That makes things slightly more difficult for a couple of reasons. First, I’m on the current track trends that could adjust with water in the turf courses and the dirt. Secondly, it introduces scratches and possible races off the turn into the mix. Hopefully, the rain stays away, or at least does not pour down, but it is something to keep an eye on.

The Bed O’ Roses, Saratoga, Race #6

Let’s start with a fun little seven furlong sprint on the dirt where #3 Ways and Means will be the post time favorite. She loves this Saratoga surface, three wins in four starts, and can handle water in the track. The pace sets up well for her to sit close and pounce. In short, she is the most likely winner, but at 6-5 on the morning line, and possibly shorter at post, let’s play against her.

#6 Miss Justify is a juicy 12-1 and, when you isolate the one-turn races, a horse that fits with improvement here. She has a win over the track and is bred to love the sloppy stuff. Trainer Todd Pletcher saw her as good enough to try the Grade 1 Alabama (the biggest 3-year-old filly race at Saratoga) and now ships her back into graded stakes company off an extremely sharp seasonal debut.

#4 Jody’s Pride is another interesting option if you want to beat Ways and Means. She, too, looks much better when you isolate her one-turn races, with the only loss coming in a graded stakes effort where she lost a three-way photo. The only concern with her is the lack of early pace, which could leave her too much to do.

If anyone takes this field gate to wire, it will be the #1 Irish Maxima, who has ripped off three in a row and six of the last seven. All of those were against worse fields at lower-end tracks, so her class will be tested today, but like defense, speed travels.

Top 4: 6-3-4-1
Bet – $50 Win #6

Ogden Phipps, Saratoga, Race #9

The best older fillies in the country, minus Thorpedo Anna, take to the track, and we have a deserving favorite in #4 Raging Sea, who loves both the distance and the track. Outside of the Breeders’ Cup second place to Thorpedo Anna, she has won her last five races and gets the pace set up today to extend that streak. I’d be shocked if we got 5-2, but I would play her down to 7/5 against this field.

#5 Candied comes in off a win on the Pimlico undercard and has performed well at Saratoga in the past, including a second-place finish in last year’s Alabama. She needs to take another step forward to win, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.

#6 Tarifa has always had the talent to bust through, but has been unable to live up to those expectations thus far in her career. She was a tough luck second place finisher behind Gin Gin, who ran her eyeballs out last time and has the pace to be closer to the lead than her main rivals. She loves the off track as well.

If I was going to sprinkle in a price, it would be #1 Dorth Vader. She’s pulled the big upset before, but that was going gate to wire. She will not get the lead today, but I do think she can stick around for the minor placings.

Top 4: 4-5-6-1
Bet: $50 Win #4

Spot Bets:
Saratoga, Race #11 $50 Exacta 2-3
Saratoga, Race #14 $50 Win #3

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