Game: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Date: December 6th at 4:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

For the second of the Power 4 conference championships, we get a regular-season rematch in the SEC title game between Georgia and Alabama. The Crimson Tide won the first meeting in Athens, but this time the matchup shifts to a neutral field in Atlanta. The championship originally seemed destined to feature Texas A&M vs. Alabama, but after A&M’s first loss of the season to Texas, Georgia slipped in through the back door.

Despite that loss to Alabama, Georgia has put together an impressive season. Offensively, they’ve been solid, averaging 416.2 yards per game (34th in FBS) and 32.6 points per game (22nd in FBS). Their defense has surged down the stretch, allowing just 299.6 yards per game (12th in FBS) and 17.6 points per game (12th in FBS).

Alabama, meanwhile, put together a strong 10–2 season. Their offense has been productive but inconsistent, especially on the ground, averaging 392.5 yards per game (58th in FBS) and 31.2 points per game (26th in FBS). Defensively, they’ve been steady, giving up 304.8 yards per game (13th in FBS) and 18 points per game (13th in FBS).

The SEC championship is always significant, but this year’s matchup carries even more weight, with both teams fighting for a playoff bye.

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Betting Overview

When this matchup was set, the spread opened with Georgia as 1.5-point favorites, but that has since moved to Georgia -2.5. The moneyline has shifted only slightly as well, with Georgia now at -130 (from -120) and Alabama at +120 (from even). The total has remained steady at 47.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: FPI is higher on Alabama than Georgia, with the Crimson Tide at 6th giving 21.5 points to the FBS average, while the Bulldogs sit at 8th giving 20.8 points to the FBS average.  According to this we should see Alabama as around 0.5-point favorites in this matchup.
  • SP+: This model is the polar opposite of FPI having Georgia at 6th giving 23.4 points to the FBS average, and Alabama at 12th giving 20.6 points to the FBS average.  SP+ lines up more closely with the current spread, projecting Georgia as slightly stronger favorites.

Betting Trends

In the first meeting this season, Alabama won outright and covered as 2.5-point underdogs, and the under cashed as well.

Georgia comes into this matchup with a 5–7 ATS record (all as favorites) and a 5–3 mark in SEC play. Totals have leaned toward the under, hitting in 7 of 12 games overall and splitting 4–4 within the conference.

Alabama has put together a strong 7–3–2 ATS record, including 4–2–2 in SEC play and a 1–0 mark as an underdog. While Alabama overs hit early in the season, the under proved far more reliable down the stretch—cashing in 8 of 12 overall, 7 of 8 SEC games, and in their lone game as an underdog (the previous matchup against Georgia).

Final Thoughts

We’ve seen some fantastic Georgia–Alabama matchups over the years, and Saturday afternoon should bring us another great chapter in this rivalry. Alabama has historically held the edge, but based on recent form, that may not be the case this time. Georgia had been rolling prior to last week’s close call against Georgia Tech, while Alabama has been scraping by in several recent games. I think Georgia finds a way to win and cover here, and I’m staying away from the total.