Introduction

Though J.J. McCarthy was technically drafted in 2024, he will effectively be entering his “rookie” season this year after suffering a meniscus injury during the Vikings’ preseason game against Las Vegas, which required season-ending surgery. McCarthy showed plenty of promise in his preseason debut, completing 11 of 17 passes for 188 yards with two touchdowns, one interception, and adding 18 rushing yards.

While this will be his first season starting in regular-season NFL games, McCarthy had the benefit of learning behind veteran Sam Darnold throughout last year. He also had time to study Kevin O’Connell’s system and focus on improving his physical strength during the offseason—an effort that could help prevent future injuries.

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McCarthy and Vikings Betting Markets for 2025 Season

DraftKings currently has J.J. McCarthy projected at 3,650.5 passing yards (over -120; under +100), suggesting oddsmakers believe the Vikings will lean on him to drive the passing game. His passing touchdowns line is also available, set at 24.5 (over -105; under -115).

The good news for McCarthy is that he’ll be surrounded by an excellent supporting cast: one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, superstar wide receiver Justin Jefferson, standout tight end T.J. Hockenson, and rising target Jordan Addison.

What remains to be seen is how McCarthy will perform under the pressure of real regular-season NFL action—where the stakes and intensity are far greater than anything he’s previously experienced.

One indicator of his potential is his final college season at Michigan, where he played 15 games and went 240-for-332 (72.3%) for 2,991 yards and 22 touchdowns. While impressive, McCarthy will need to take his game to another level to succeed in the NFL—especially in the ultra-competitive NFC North.

As for the team outlook, the Vikings’ current win total is set at 9.5 (over +105; under -125). The shorter odds on the under reflect skepticism due to the strength of the division and uncertainty surrounding McCarthy. This represents a notable drop from last season’s 14-win campaign, but many still believe in Kevin O’Connell’s coaching pedigree and the continuity of the roster around the young quarterback.

Conclusion

With the Vikings in transition and McCarthy having little to no NFL experience, it’s hard to make strong predictions about either the player or the team. What we do know is that McCarthy has a talented roster around him—if he can meet expectations, the Vikings could remain a strong contender in 2025.