Game: SMU Mustangs at Clemson Tigers

Date: October 18th at 3:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ACC Network

The Clemson Tigers, following their first two covers of the season, return home to face the SMU Mustangs. SMU enters this matchup unbeaten in ACC play, with their only two losses coming against TCU and Baylor. The Mustangs boast a strong offense, ranking 33rd in points per game (32.4) and 45th in total yards per game (405.8). Defensively, they take a “bend but don’t break” approach — allowing plenty of yards (437.6 per game, 113th in FBS) but holding opponents to touchdowns on just 68.42% of red-zone trips.

Clemson, meanwhile, has been fairly average offensively, sitting near the middle of the FBS in most statistical categories. Their defense, however, has stood out, ranking 21st in points allowed per game (18.5) and 25th in yards allowed per game (323.2). Both teams remain long shots to win the ACC — SMU at +1600 and Clemson at +8000 — but this shapes up to be an intriguing midseason matchup and one of the tougher tests either team has faced recently.

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Weather

Temperatures in Clemson, South Carolina, will be on the warmer side for October, sitting in the high 70s throughout most of this matchup. Precipitation shouldn’t be a factor, with only a 3% chance of rain, and winds are expected to average around 8 mph, with gusts reaching up to 18 mph.

Betting Overview

The spread in this matchup opened with Clemson as an 11.5-point favorite, but the line has since shifted toward SMU, with Clemson now sitting between an 8.5- and 10-point favorite depending on the book. Moneylines have stayed relatively steady, with SMU around +270 and Clemson around -340. As for the total, this game opened at 54.5, with some books holding that number while others have nudged it up to 55.5.

Power Ratings

  • ESPN FPI: SMU currently ranks 40th, giving 8.3 points above the FBS average, while Clemson sits at 29th, giving 10 points above the FBS average. Using these numbers, Clemson would be roughly a 1.5- to 2-point favorite on a neutral field. Factoring in home-field advantage, the Tigers would project as about a 4- to 5-point favorite.
  • SP+: The SP+ model views these teams slightly differently, though the point margins relative to the FBS average are similar to ESPN’s FPI. SMU ranks 44th, giving 8.8 points above the FBS average, while Clemson comes in at 39th, giving 10.6 points above the FBS average. Based on these figures, Clemson’s favorability remains about the same projecting as a modest favorite in this matchup.

Betting Trends

We saw these two teams face off for the first time just last season in the ACC Championship, where Clemson edged out SMU in a 34–31 victory. The Tigers also managed to cover the narrow spread, and the over hit, closing at 56.5.

SMU’s ATS record has been abysmal so far, sitting at 1–5 on the season. They’re also 0–2 ATS on the road but have gone 1–1 since conference play began. Unders have been extremely favorable in SMU games, hitting in five of their six contests. The under has also hit in both road matchups and both of their ACC games.

After last week’s cover, Clemson is now 2–4 ATS on the season with a 2–2 mark in ACC play. However, they’ve yet to cover at home, sitting at 0–3 ATS. Unders have also been more favorable in Clemson games, hitting in four of six overall and two of three at home, while splitting in conference play.

Final Thoughts

Both teams enter this game with confidence after back-to-back wins. This will be SMU’s first road test in ACC play, but they do match up well against this Clemson team. I think Clemson finds a way to win this one at home, but SMU should cover based on the current lines available. I also like the under if it stays around 55.5.