Game: Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings

Date: September 14th at 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

This week’s Sunday Night Football game features a matchup between two quarterbacks just beginning their NFL careers, Michael Penix Jr. and J.J. McCarthy. Last week, the Falcons opened with an NFC South showdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, where they narrowly lost. Offensively, Atlanta could not get the run game going, though Penix delivered a solid day through the air. Defenses often set the tone early in the season as offenses take time to find rhythm, and that was the case here, with the Falcons’ defense playing a strong game against a talented Bucs offense. For the Vikings, things looked bleak through the first half and part of the third quarter in their Monday Night matchup against the Bears, but they turned it around emphatically in the fourth. Offensively, Minnesota struggled to generate much early but exploded for 21 points in the final quarter. The defense kept them within striking distance, showing Caleb Williams different looks that caused confusion and allowed the team to rally late. This Sunday Night matchup should be exciting, and it will be interesting to see how both teams perform in their first non-division games.

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Betting Overview

When this SNF matchup opened, the Vikings were favored at -4.5, but the line has since shifted to -3.5. The moneyline opened with Minnesota at -205, and now sits between -165 and -190, while Atlanta has moved from +170 to a range of +140 to +160. The total has only dropped a point, from 45.5 to 44.5. Bettors seem to favor Minnesota, with 79% of spread bets on the Vikings, though the money has leaned toward Atlanta at 61%. 

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching edge in this matchup clearly belongs to the Minnesota Vikings, led by head coach Kevin O’Connell. Coming from the Shanahan-McVay tree, O’Connell and his staff have proven strong in player development and shown the ability to adapt to the volatility of the NFL.

DLs vs. OLs: Minnesota takes the edge in this matchup as well. These teams may have similarly strong offensive lines, but with Atlanta struggling to establish the run and Minnesota boasting a stronger defensive front, the advantage in the trenches goes to the Vikings.

QBs: While J.J. McCarthy looked strong in the second half of his first start last week, I think Michael Penix Jr. has more tools in his game at this stage. Penix also brings a few more NFL starts under his belt.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This matchup is very close, with Atlanta featuring an absolute game changer in Bijan Robinson, while Minnesota relies on a solid two-back system they like to use. The off-ball linebackers for both franchises are fairly similar, but the Vikings hold the edge at tight end with T.J. Hockenson. Overall, I would lean slightly toward Atlanta because of Robinson’s impact, though the margin is very narrow.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The secondary units for these two franchises are very close, but even without Jordan Addison, the difference Justin Jefferson brings gives the Vikings the edge. The Falcons do have Drake London, who didn’t get off to the start he wanted last week, but I expect Atlanta to find a way to get him more involved.

Betting Trends from 2024

These teams actually met last December, when the Vikings won in dominant fashion, 42-21. Minnesota easily covered in that matchup, and the over 46.5 also cashed.

Last season, the Falcons were not particularly strong as an underdog ATS, going 1-4-0, including 1-3-0 as a road underdog. In non-division games, they finished just 3-7-1 ATS. For totals, Falcons games ended with 4 overs and 4 unders overall, though non-division matchups leaned heavily to the under, which hit in 9 of 11 contests.

The Vikings were far stronger ATS, finishing 6-2-0 at home, though only 3-2-0 as a home favorite. They also excelled in non-division games, going 8-4-0 ATS. Totals leaned to the under for Minnesota, both at home and in non-division contests. At home, the under hit in 5 of 8 games, including 3 of 5 as home favorites. In non-division matchups, the under cashed in 9 of 12 games.

Final Thoughts

Sunday Night Football is set up to be a great matchup, marking J.J. McCarthy’s first home start and his second primetime appearance. The Vikings do enter with a day less of rest, but with the depth this Minnesota team brings, I think it will ultimately prove too much for the Atlanta Falcons.