Game: Minnesota Vikings vs. Dallas Cowboys

Date: December 14th at 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

In last week’s SNF matchup, we saw a Texans defense completely manhandle their opponent. This week may feature a bit more offense in a matchup between the Vikings and Cowboys. Both teams are still mathematically alive in the playoff race (though it’s essentially impossible for Minnesota), but it remains a long shot. Minnesota snapped a four-game losing streak last week against the Washington Commanders in a 31-0 win, bringing their record to 5-8. The offense has struggled all season, ranking 29th in yards per game (275.5) and 26th in points per game (19.6). They’ve remained strong defensively, allowing just 299.1 yards per game (8th in the NFL) and 21.6 points per game (12th).

The Cowboys, meanwhile, fell short in a hard-fought Thursday Night Football battle with the Detroit Lions, leaving their clearest playoff path through winning the NFC East as they sit at 6-6-1. Their offense continues to shine, averaging 394.9 yards per game (1st in the NFL) and 29.3 points per game (3rd). As has been the case all season, the defense has been their weakness, ranking 29th in yards allowed per game (378.6) and 31st in points allowed per game (29.7). While the stakes may not be high here, it will be interesting to watch the continued development of young quarterback JJ McCarthy and see how this Cowboys offense fares against a solid Minnesota defense.

Betting Overview

The line opened with Minnesota as 1.5-point favorites, but Dallas has now swung to a 5.5 to 6.5-point favorite. The moneyline has shifted dramatically, with Minnesota moving from -120 to +235, and Dallas from even odds to -270. The total has climbed slightly from 45.5 to the 47.5–48 range.

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Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Even though this season hasn’t gone according to plan for the Minnesota Vikings, Kevin O’Connell has still proven to be a strong coach. If there’s a coaching edge in this matchup, it leans toward Minnesota, though neither team is where they hoped to be.

DLs vs. OLs: Dallas holds a clear advantage in the trenches. One of Minnesota’s biggest issues has been offensive line play, and they’ll be challenged by a solid Cowboys defensive front. On the flip side, Dallas features one of the best offensive lines in the league, going up against a respectable but not dominant Vikings defensive line.

QBs: When comparing a first-year full-time starter to a seasoned veteran like Dak Prescott, the gap is obvious. Dak holds the clear advantage at quarterback.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This should be an interesting battle in the middle of the field, especially when the Cowboys are on offense. Dallas has the edge offensively in this matchup, while Minnesota has the advantage defensively. Overall, it’s close, but I’d give a slight edge to Dallas.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Dallas’s secondary has struggled for much of the season but has looked a bit stronger recently. Minnesota’s secondary has had its own issues. The Cowboys have more depth and overall talent at receiver, even with CeeDee Lamb’s uncertainty giving them the edge in this category.

Betting Trends

Minnesota is a 5-8 ATS team, with a 2-3 record on the road, a 1-3 mark as a road underdog, and a 3-5 record within the NFC. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 7 of 13 games, including 3 of 5 on the road, while splitting 2 of 4 as road underdogs. In conference play, however, the under has been more favorable, hitting in 5 of 8.

Dallas enters this matchup 7-6 ATS, with a 4-2 record at home, a 1-2 record as a home favorite, and a 4-5 mark in NFC play. Totals have strongly favored the over, hitting in 9 of 13 games overall, 4 of 6 at home, 2 of 3 as home favorites, and 5 of 9 in conference action.

Final Thoughts

The Vikings’ defense will certainly challenge Dallas, but the Cowboys come in as the more complete team. Minnesota knows its playoff hopes are essentially gone, so they’ll be playing with nothing to lose. Dallas, meanwhile, still has a faint path to the postseason, so they should empty the tank here. With that in mind, I like the Cowboys to cover, and I’m staying off the total—though I would slightly lean toward the over.