As promised, last week I offered a side and total selection on every one of the six Wild Card playoff games. I am always confident in doing this as I feel like there are very few people who dig into the stats, trends, and matchups for every game more than I do. Well, the weekend was a roller coaster, as the Packers’ collapse cost me what looked like both a side and total win for that game against the Bears, and the Steelers’ inability to get anything going offensively on MNF cost me another pair of setbacks. However, the Sunday board was spectacular, as I swept all six best bet selections that day.
In the end, I was 7-5, and my futures board is still intact after the Rams and Patriots advanced to the divisional round. That’s where I pick up here. Hopefully you caught my piece from earlier this week on the Divisional Round Playoff Trends, as well as this week’s loaded NFL Analytics Report, because between those two pieces, my strength ratings, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I have come up with the following leans for this weekend’s divisional playoff action…
Saturday, January 17, 2026
San Francisco at Seattle (-7)
Just two weeks ago, the Seahawks held the 49ers to 173 yards and nine first downs. Even still, they were a couple of plays away from being in some trouble in the game, as they only put up 13 points themselves. Since then, head coach Kyle Shanahan’s team has gained some extremely valuable momentum by going on the road and winning at Philadelphia in the Wild Card playoff round. Can the 49ers sustain that momentum and turn the tables at Seattle on Saturday?
Well, if you ask me, yes, they can. However, I’d be much more willing to invest in the 7-point spread than in any type of money line wager. Recent history is on my side, as road teams have proven to be worthy bets in the divisional round when underdogs in the +3.5 to +9.5 range, going 29-17-1 ATS (63%) in the last 47 tries (15-32 SU). Of the last 37 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 22 of them have covered the point spread (61.1% with one push), and 13 have won a second straight road game outright.
In addition, in terms of Wild Card teams’ potential success in the divisional round, note that 19 of the last 27 WC teams to cover the spread in divisional games played well defensively in the prior game, allowing 20 points or less. San Francisco won 23-19 last weekend. Of course, there is the argument that since losing to the 49ers 17-13 on opening weekend, the Seahawks have gone 14-2 with the losses being by 2 and 3 points. They have clearly earned the #1 seed. However, teams fight all season long to have home-field advantage throughout their conference playoffs. But that advantage has not lasted long, as #1 seeds are 30-14 SU but just 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) dating back to 2004.
Making matters worse for the #1 seeds is their record versus #6’s (or worse), as in that matchup the home teams are just 13-8 SU and 6-14-1 ATS (30%) since 2006 and #1 seeds playing as small home favorites of 7 points or less are on an ugly 4-12-1 ATS (25%) slide in the divisional round. Being as how this game is in Seattle, we must all consider that road teams are 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS in all six meetings between divisional foes SF and SEA in the last three seasons, and that San Francisco has been one of the NFL’s best road rematch teams lately, going 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS in its L12 tries.
In regards to the total, San Francisco’s head coach Shanahan is 29-17 Under the total as a single-digit underdog since 2017, and in the last 28 matchups between a #1 seed and a Wild Card team, or a road winner from the prior weekend, Under the total is 21-9-1 (70%). Plus, when looking at a DK betting split showing 59% of bets on the Under, when 56% or more of the number of bets have been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last 2-1/2 seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 56-45 ATS (55.4%).
One other key note there, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points or more, Over is 31-6 (83.8%). When road teams fail to reach 20 points, Under is 30-7-1 (81.1%) in the last 38. I don’t think SF gets 24. In fact, I’d say we’re looking at a 20-17 type of game.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: Give me SF +7 and Under 44.5 at Seattle
Buffalo at Denver (-1.5)
I tried all week long to convince myself that Buffalo QB Josh Allen was finally due to win the big one, which, of course, would mean he and his teammates march into Denver Saturday and take down the #1 seed. I just can’t get there, as I’ve seen this Broncos’ defense enough times this season to know that Allen is going to be under the gun all game long. He already took a lot of uncomfortable hits last week at Jacksonville, and that defense pales in comparison to this one. There is no team that puts more pressure on with a 4-man rush than this one, and with Buffalo a little short on talent at the wideout position, I think it’s going to be a long day for Allen and Co.
Like Seattle, Denver has clearly earned its #1 seed and bye, going 14-3, including 8-1 at home. This difference between this game and the Sea-SF game is that the Broncos are being somewhat disrespected, laying just 1.5 points. Being the first game of the weekend, we need to consider this trend, especially with Denver well-rested: There has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based on the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on. On Saturdays, home teams have gone 26-6 SU and 20-12 ATS (62.5%) over the last 16 seasons.
Of course, as I mentioned earlier, I believe the Broncos’ pass defense is the most important thing in this matchup, and they ranked #1 in the NFL in defensive yards per pass attempt, allowing 5.4 YPA. Last week, I released a playoff betting system showing that home teams allowing 5.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt have been solid bets in the playoffs, going 22-7 SU and 18-11 ATS (62.1%) since 2002.
I also have my eye on the DK betting splits for this game as Buffalo has become a trendy road dog, getting 64% of the handle at DraftKings as of Friday. Even still, the line has shifted to Denver. When the majority handle was on road underdogs for an ATS wager over the last two years, these majority groups have surprisingly struggled, 27-36 ATS (42.9%).
Looking closer at the total, we know that home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 21-6-1 Over (77.8%) the total surge. Hosts averaged 33.3 PPG in those contests. Alternatively, road team covers have seen 17 Unders, 8 Overs (72.7%) since ’14. The hosts scored 10.4 PPG fewer in those road covers. In essence, home teams cover with offense, road teams cover with defense. I think Denver will score a good number here and get a win. Let’s say 28-21.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll go with Denver -1.5 and Over 45.5 versus Buffalo
Sunday, January 18, 2026
Houston at New England (-3)
Embed from Getty ImagesIf there is one team this weekend that continues to be undervalued based upon all it has shown this season, it is New England. Could it be the first-time playoff QB/new head coach recipe that folks are worried about? I don’t know why that would be the case, as QB Drake Maye is an MVP candidate and head coach Mike Vrabel is a highly successful and respected coach in the league. If you’re worried about the lack of experience factor, know that non-returning playoff teams hosting a returning playoff team in the divisional round are now on a 10-4 SU and 9-5 ATS run since 2008.
This Patriots’ team is elite, and as a 3-point home favorite this Sunday, not being treated as such. Of course, they are red-hot too, winners of four straight outright and ATS. New England is 36-7 SU and 32-11 ATS when riding a three-game or more outright winning streak since 2016. And although the era was different, the divisional round has also been practically automatic for this franchise, particularly at home, where they are 12-1 SU since 2002.
At the same time, Houston is 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six divisional round tries. The Texans also haven’t matched up well with the league’s best historically, going 20-58 SU and 29-48 ATS vs. elite teams with a point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010. I have some concerns with the Houston offense after watching them turn the ball over three times versus Pittsburgh. The concerns deepen if WR Nico Collins can’t go.
There are also some serious concerns about the Houston offense, and reading into their 30-point performance last week would be a mistake. The turnovers were uncharacteristic to say the least, but even still, road teams that avoid turnovers (<=1.0 giveaways per game) have surprisingly not fared well in the playoffs of late, going 6-24 SU and 10-20 ATS (33.3%) since 2004. The chances of getting to 21 points are small in my opinion, and when scoring 20 points or less, the chance of a road team winning in this round drops dramatically to 6-42 SU and 18-28-2 ATS (39.1%) in that same span.
On the total, this game has the lowest number of any of the four games, and 75% of the handle and bets are on that side of the ledger. Perhaps bettors don’t know that #2 seeds are a high-scoring surge at 19-10 Over (65.5%) in the last 15 years, or that home teams that have covered the point spread in divisional round games are also on a 21-6-1 Over (77.8%) total surge. I like New England, thus I like the Over too. Let’s call it 27-17.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll back New England -3 and Over 40.5 in Foxboro on Sunday
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Chicago
In the NCAA tournament, and even in the “old days” of NFL playoffs, it was always believed that elite teams that survive early upset attempts by upstart opponents have an increased chance of reaching their title goals. If such is the case, you have to consider what the Rams went through to get past Carolina last weekend a blessing. We saw prior to that game on my Shared Champions piece that LA was the most complete team in this year’s playoff field, notching 27 out of 27 marks that I look at for championship DNA. The Bears were a complete opposite, scoring 14 marks and missing on some of the most important strength rating and statistical traits, most notably on defense.
Can Chicago overcome the odds yet again and make a game out of what, on paper, would seem to be a historical playoff mismatch? I’d say so if the gambling gods were blessing them, but in this case, there is actually 66% of the handle and 60% of the bets on the Bears as home dogs. Those behind the counter will be rooting against them. The line (-3.5) may look a bit uncomfortable for those looking to back LA here, but remember that there has been a significant performance difference in home/road dichotomy based upon the day of the weekend the Divisional Playoff game has been played on.
On Sundays, road teams have performed much better, going 26-13-1 ATS (66.7%) since 2006. Plus, of the last 37 teams that pulled off road wins in the Wild Card round to advance to this weekend, 22 of them have covered the point spread (61.1% with one push), and 13 have won a second straight road game outright.
Getting back to the Bears’ insufficient playoff resume, after yielding 421 yards of offense to GB last Saturday, there is even greater concern about the Rams’ potent offense overwhelming this defense. We know that home teams allowing more than 7.0 yards per pass attempt have been quite unreliable for bettors in the postseason, going 8-15-1 ATS (34.8%) since 2012. That Packers game was windy too, normally an offense limiter.
This game is only supposed to be cold. It’s hard to see any scenario in which the Rams don’t score well here. The line/total combo suggests they will get 26. The magic point total for road teams in divisional playoff action has proven to be 21 points, a point higher than last week, as they are 24-25 SU but 33-15 ATS (68.8%) since 2002 when they reached that mark. More on that, since 2002, the offensive potency of the road team typically controls the total result. When road teams in the divisional round score 24 points or more, Over is 31-6 (83.8%). Add to that the fact that #2 seeds are a high scoring surge at 19-10 Over (65.5%) in the last 15 years.
Finally, with 58% of the bets climbing on Over on a sinking total, in games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last two years, going 96-72 ATS (60.8%)! I think we’re looking at a 31-21 type of win for the Rams.
NFL Divisional Round Best Bet: I’ll go Over 48.5 and LA Rams -3.5 in Chicago on Sunday
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