The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, March 27, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Interleague favorites/Pick ’ems have gone 16-3 SU for +12.38 units in their opening day game since the start of the 2020 season (including a perfect 12-0 SU for +12.00 units at HOME).Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-143 vs KC)
* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 367-182 (66.8%) for +51.93 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-175 vs CLE)
Trend: COL is 11-30 (-11.76 units) on the road last 3+ seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+163 at MIA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. For the 2026 season, the record is 3-3 (-2.44 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-199 vs COL), TORONTO (-175 vs ATH)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025. For the 2026 season, the record is 3-3 (-0.93 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-175 vs ATH), KANSAS CITY (+119 at ATL), SAN DIEGO (-126 vs DET)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For the 2026 season, the record is 1-0 (+1.89 units).
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+163 at MIA)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the ’26 campaign.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-252 vs ARI)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative systemIn combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-252 vs ARI)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! For the 2026 season, the record is 1-2 (-0.41 units).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (+144 at SEA), KANSAS CITY (+119 at ATL)
MLB Opening Day notes
The following MLB betting trends look at team performance in their first game of the year.
* Interleague favorites/pick ’ems have gone 16-3 SU for +12.38 units in their first game since the start of the 2020 season (including a perfect 12-0 SU for +12.00 units at home).
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-143 vs KC)
* Totals in the range of 7.5 to 8.5 have been a sweet spot for betting Overs in Game #1, hitting at a 36-20-1 (64.3%) rate in the last six seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): ATH-TOR (o/u at 8.5), COL-MIA (o/u at 7.5), KC-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 362-315 but for -84.67 units and an ROI of -13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (-175 vs ATH), ATLANTA (-143 vs KC)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponentTeams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7 runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 430-410 (51.2%) for +23.65 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs NYY)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1975-2516 (44%) for -245.05 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+203 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4006-3485 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -505.08 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-252 vs ARI)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hitHome teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 592-483 (55.1%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +38.59 units, for an ROI of 3.6%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+113 vs NYY)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favoritesHome favorites coming off a game in which they hit 4 or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 367-182 (66.8%) for +51.93 units and an ROI of 9.5%!
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-175 vs CLE)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: ARIZONA +203 (+33 diff), CLEVELAND +144 (+22), COLORADO +163 (+19), SAN FRANCISCO +113 (+18), LA ANGELS +139 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATLANTA -143 (+20)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(965) COLORADO (0-0) at (966) MIAMI (0-0)Trend: COL is 11-30 (-11.76 units) on the road last 3+ seasons with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+163 at MIA)
(967) ARIZONA (0-1) at (968) LOS ANGELES-NL (1-0)
Trend: Over the total is 12-4-2 (+7.50 units) when AZ is on the road and faces teams with a >= 0.480 win pct with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season, going over the listed total by 2.64 runs on average
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-LAD (o/u at 8.5)
(969) ATHLETICS (0-0) at (970) TORONTO (0-0)Trend: Luis Severino is 17-36 (-16.06 units) as an underdog in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+144 at TOR)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 14-25 (-26.29 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-175 vs ATH)
(979) DETROIT (1-0) at (980) SAN DIEGO (0-1)Trend: Framber Valdez is 9-6 (+2.81 units) as a slight underdog (between -108 to +105) in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DETROIT (+104 at SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, ATLANTA, DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO, MIAMI, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Friday, March 27 appeared first on VSiN.
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