The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, April 9, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-387 but for +97.50 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the ’22 season
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA) 

Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 23-4 (85.2%, +17.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 66.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-186 vs CWS) 

* Since the start of the 2025 season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 380-225 for +36.15 units (ROI: 6%), when not matched against the same.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-168 vs AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the ’25 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 24-12 start for +6.17 units and an ROI of +17.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (-136 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (-199 vs COL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the ’26 season, these teams are at 6-5 for +0.36 units.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-131 vs CIN)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 28-15 start for +5.60 units.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-168 vs AZ)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a 10-17 start for -0.03 units.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+113 vs DET) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.28 units. The ’26 record so far is 7-1 for +4.57 units, as big favorites are off to an unusually strong start overall. I would expect this to cool.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-199 vs COL) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 13-7 but for -5.49 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-207 vs ATH) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 9-4 start for -1.20 units.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-207 vs ATH) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a reasonable start, 25-27 for +1.30 units.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 2-7 for -5.64 units and an ROI of -62.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+113 vs DET), COLORADO (+163 at SD) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 13-7 for +8.96 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at KC)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 5-8 for -5.67 units.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 at MIN) 

MLB Series Systems

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The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 441-354 for +31.92 units and an ROI of 4.0% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+163 at SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 411-425 but for +42.58 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 at MIN) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 354-387 but for +97.50 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA) 

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 370-317 but for -79.82 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR KANSAS CITY vs CWS (-186 CURRENTLY)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 401-339 record for +59.58 units and an ROI of 8.1% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+163 at SD) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 632-734 record but for +23.34 units and an ROI of 1.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2002-1886 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.98 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+163 at SD) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4043-3517 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.55 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-131 vs CIN), MINNESOTA (+113 vs DET), SAN DIEGO (-199 vs COL)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 599-494 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +33.99 units, for an ROI of 3.1%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-207 vs ATH)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 330-298 (52.5%) for +18.21 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-186 vs CWS)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. 

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 66-38 SU for +14.18 units (ROI: 13.6%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 at MIN)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 449-509 SU but for +69.18 units (ROI: 7.2%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 156-164 SU for +40.33 units in the last 320 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+109 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+153 at KC)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 269-286 run (+7.67 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-136 at MIN) 

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 34-69 (-8.26 units, ROI: -8%) in their last 103 tries.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+163 at SD) 

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: ATHLETICS +169 (+24 diff) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-KC UNDER 9 (-0.7)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Tue 4/7-Thu 4/9
Trend: NY Mets are 27-11 (71.1%, +14.24 units) in the last 38 games vs Arizona Diamondbacks
–  The ROI on this trend is 37.5%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-168 vs AZ) 

Series #9: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City, Thu 4/9-Sun 4/12
Trend: KANSAS CITY is on a run of 23-4 (85.2%, +17.84 units) versus the Chicago White Sox.
– The ROI on this trend is 66.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-186 vs CWS) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season.Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, NY METS, KANSAS CITY, SAN DIEGO

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, April 9 appeared first on VSiN.