The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, March 26, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: PHI is 26-6 (+14.46 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs TEX)

* Road teams playing as divisional underdogs in their first game of the year have had their totals go Over at a 21-10-1 (67.7%) rate in the last six seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAA-HOU (o/u at 8), ARI-LAD (o/u at 9)

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Trend: Favorites are 20-5 (80%, +11.38 units) in the last 25 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 45.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-120 vs PIT)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record–    In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (-232 vs WSH), BALTIMORE (-143 vs MIN), BOSTON (-156 at CIN), HOUSTON (-186 vs LAA), TAMPA BAY (-126 at STL), LA DODGERS (-259 vs ARI)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

– Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. This angle brought in +12.66 units over the final two weeks of 2025.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 at NYM), BOSTON (-156 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+109 vs DET), PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs TEX), LA DODGERS (-259 vs ARI), SEATTLE (-193 vs CLE)

–   Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle!
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+189 at CHC)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long

–   Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+100 at NYM), SAN DIEGO (+109 vs DET), CLEVELAND (+159 at SEA)

MLB Opening Day notes

The following trends look at team performance in their first game of the year.

* Road teams playing as divisional underdogs in their first game have had their totals go Over at a 21-10-1 (67.7%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): LAA-HOU (o/u at 8), ARI-LAD (o/u at 9)

* Home teams in games with totals < 7 have gone a perfect 7-0 SU for +7.5 units in Game #1 since the start of the 2020 season.
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): *NONE YET*
WATCH FOR NY METS vs PIT, CHICAGO CUBS vs WSH, DETROIT vs SD, SEATTLE vs CLE 

*Interleague favorites/pick ’ems have gone 12-2 SU for +9.64 units in their first game since the start of the 2020 season (including a perfect 10-0 SU for +10.00 units at home).
Trend Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-186 vs CWS), DETROIT (-136 at SD), BOSTON (-163 at CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs TEX), TAMPA BAY (-126 at STL)

* Totals in the range of 7.5 to 8.5 have been a sweet spot for betting Overs in Game #1, hitting at a 33-17 (66%) rate in the last six seasons.
Trend Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): CWS-MIL, MIN-BAL, LAA-HOU, BOS-CIN, TEX-PHI, TB-STL 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 208-155 for +18.61 units and an ROI of 5.1% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-126 at STL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 359-315 but for -87.67 units and an ROI of -13% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-120 vs PIT), BALTIMORE (-143 vs MIN), PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs TEX)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS YET THIS SEASON

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: WASHINGTON +189 (+28 diff), ARIZONA +209 (+23), CLEVELAND +159 (+16) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: WSH-CHC OVER 8 (+1.2), TB-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CLE-SEA OVER 6.5 (+0.6) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: ARI-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.9), BOS-CIN UNDER 8 (-0.5), DET-SD UNDER 7 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting  trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PITTSBURGH (0-0) at (902) NEW YORK-NL (0-0)Trend: Under the total is 9-2-1 (+6.65 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-108 to +111 line range) since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-NYM (o/u at 7)

(915) DETROIT (0-0) at (916) SAN DIEGO (0-0)Trend: Nick Pivetta is 13-5 (+8.27 units) in day games within -150 to +130 line range since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+113 vs DET)

(917) BOSTON (0-0) at (918) CINCINNATI (0-0)Trend: CIN is 8-2 (+8.89 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+135 vs BOS)

(919) TEXAS (0-0) at (920) PHILADELPHIA (0-0)Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 28-10 (+18.06 units) in the last 38 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+135 at PHI)

Trend: PHI is 26-6 (+14.46 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-163 vs TEX)

Series #12: Pittsburgh at NY Mets, Thu 3/26-Sun 3/29Trend: Favorites are 20-5 (80%, +11.38 units) in the last 25 games between Pittsburgh and NY Mets
– The ROI on this trend is 45.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-120 vs PIT)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, DETROIT, BOSTON, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS, MILWAUKEE, CHICAGO CUBS, BALTIMORE, HOUSTON, PHILADELPHIA, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Thursday, March 26 appeared first on VSiN.