The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, April 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: SEATTLE is 10-0 (+10.25 units) in its last 10 games vs Texas with starter George Kirby
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-120 at TEX)

* Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 416-275 for +90.03 units and an ROI of 13%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS), DETROIT (-175 at MIN), ATLANTA (-143 at LAA)

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* Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-140 (-58.38 units, ROI: -20.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-163 at TOR)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating went 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 20-9 start for +6.62 units and an ROI of +22.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-143 at CWS), DETROIT (-175 at MIN), ATLANTA (-143 at LAA)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a 20-14 start but for a loss of -0.96 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA), NY METS (-163 vs AZ), CLEVELAND (-122 vs KC), NY YANKEES (-252 vs ATH), LA DODGERS (-149 at TOR), ATLANTA (-143 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 9-14 for +2.01 units.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-118 vs STL)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle took a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into 2026. The ’26 teams meeting this criteria are 12-6 but for -4.42 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-252 vs ATH)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longPerhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the ’22-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The ’26 season is off to a reasonable start, 19-23 for -1.15 units.System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (+113 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (+129 at PIT), ST LOUIS (-102 at WSH), CHICAGO CUBS (+109 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+129 at BOS)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-25 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For ’26, they are off to a 9-11 start for -0.69 units and an ROI of -3.4%. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ’26 results so far show a record of 2-5 for -3.44 units and an ROI of -49.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – ARIZONA (+135 at NYM), COLORADO (+144 vs HOU)
3+ games – TAMPA BAY (-131 vs CHC), LA ANGELS (+119 vs ATL)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, and ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 10-5 for +7.74 units.System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (-156 vs MIL), TORONTO (+123 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (+129 vs PHI)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 4-5 for -2.75 units.System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-120 at TEX), ATLANTA (-143 at LAA)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 440-354 for +30.92 units and an ROI of 3.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-163 vs AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 369-317 but for -80.82 units and an ROI of -11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (FADE): NY METS (-163 vs AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 401-338 record for +60.58 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+135 at NYM)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponentTeams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 433-416 (51%) for +20.18 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored 9 runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1999-1884 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -253.19 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS, LA DODGERS, COLORADO, WASHINGTON

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingConsider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1997-2545 (44%) for -249.27 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, ATLANTA

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4036-3511 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.16 units and an ROI of -6.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, NY METS, TAMPA BAY, BOSTON, WASHINGTON, MINNESOTA, COLORADO, LA ANGELS

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 599-493 (54.9%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +34.99 units, for an ROI of 3.2%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+119 vs BAL)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allowing >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 180-211 SU record for +41.04 units since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 66-35 SU for +18.10 units (ROI: 17.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-120 at TEX)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 213-245 SU but for +44.52 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+144 vs HOU)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 447-508 SU but for +68.01 units (ROI: 7.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at TB)
*WATCH FOR ST. LOUIS at WASHINGTON (-102 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 268-284 run (+8.50 units, ROI: 1.5%).
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+135 vs LAD)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 139-140 (-58.38 units, ROI: -20.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-163 at TOR)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: ATHLETICS +203 (+43 diff), ST. LOUIS -102 (+24), SAN FRANCISCO +129 (+22), TEXAS +100 (+22)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -122 (+39 diff), BALTIMORE -143 (+33), NY METS -163 (+28), DETROIT -175 (+20)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-WSH OVER 7.5 (+1.0), BAL-CWS OVER 7 (+0.7), DET-MIN OVER 6.5 (+0.7), LAD-TOR OVER 8 (+0.5), AZ-NYM OVER 7 (+0.5), PHI-SF OVER 7 (+0.5), KC-CLE OVER 6.5 (+0.5), CIN-MIA OVER 7 (+0.5), SD-PIT OVER 6 (+0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(909) PHILADELPHIA (6-4) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (3-8)Trend: PHI is 28-6 (+16.46 units) in the favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-156 at SF)

Trend: SF is 20-7 (+14.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 vs. PHI)

(917) DETROIT (4-6) at (918) MINNESOTA (4-6)Trend: Tarik Skubal is 22-9 (+6.22 units) in his last 31 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-175 at MIN)

(919) SEATTLE (4-7) at (920) TEXAS (5-5)Trend: SEA is 10-0 (+10.25 units) in its last 10 games vs. Texas with starter George Kirby
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-120 at TEX)

Trend: Nathan Eovaldi is 18-4 (+10.80 units) at home vs. teams with a < 48% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (+100 vs. SEA)

(925) LOS ANGELES-NL (8-2) at (926) TORONTO (4-6)
Trend: LAD is 20-6 (+11.61 units) as a smaller favorite within -115 to -165 line range with starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-149 at TOR)

Series #4: Arizona at NY Mets, Tue 4/7-Thu 4/9
Trend: NY Mets are 26-10 (72.2%, +14.65 units) in their last 36 games vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks
— The ROI on this trend is 40.7%.
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-163 vs. AZ)

Series #7: Philadelphia at San Francisco, Mon 4/6-Wed 4/8
Trend: Home teams are on a 19-6 (76%, +12.72 units) run in the Giants-Phillies series
— The ROI on this trend is 50.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+129 vs. PHI)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:15 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, LA DODGERS, HOUSTON, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI, BOSTON, WASHINGTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
— Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 UNITS & ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, NY METS, MIAMI, PITTSBURGH, BOSTON, WASHINGTON, NY YANKEES, TEXAS

Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY

The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Tuesday, April 7 appeared first on VSiN.