Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 24, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Matthew Boyd is 9-1 (+6.95 units) in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs NYM)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 349-381 but for +97.12 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD)
Trend: Underdogs are on a 27-11 (71.1%, +23.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 61.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 vs BOS)
* Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 39-74 in their last 113 tries (-19.81 units, ROI: -17.5%).
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+127 at CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse recordIn the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 201-134 for +46.37 units, and an ROI of +13.8%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-133 vs MIL), PITTSBURGH (-102 at CIN), BOSTON (-127 at TOR)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 345-204 for +30.02 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +5.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-102 at CIN), ST LOUIS (-108 at SF), BOSTON (-127 at TOR), TEXAS (-199 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-133 at ATH)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 145-259 for -31.36 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -7.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+162 at TEX), COLORADO (+242 at SEA)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 117-59 for -15.60 units (ROI of -8.9%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS (-199 vs MIN)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponentA 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams have had a very strong season, 127-43 for +19 units, an ROI of +11.2%.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-308 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season longA frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, having a season record of 447-473 for +53.50 units, ROI +5.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-102 at BAL), PITTSBURGH (-102 at CIN), MIAMI (+158 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+101 at LAA), ST LOUIS (-108 at SF), ATHLETICS (+109 vs HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaksI have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong 3-week surge, they are 208-203 for +14.29 units (ROI 3.5%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 105-98, +2.02 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – MINNESOTA (+162 at TEX)
3-games – ARIZONA (+128 vs LAD)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaksIn looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 190-258 for -25.65 units, an ROI of -5.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD), DETROIT (+117 at CLE), PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs MIA), HOUSTON (-133 at ATH)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaksIn conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 250-187 for +22.84 units (ROI 5.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-188 vs WSH), SAN DIEGO (-133 vs MIL), PITTSBURGH (-102 at CIN), MIAMI (+158 at PHI), SEATTLE (-308 vs COL), ST LOUIS (-108 at SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): CINCINNATI, CHICAGO CUBS, SAN FRANCISCO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, BALTIMORE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 405-414 but for +48.27 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 661-856 but for +38.80 units and an ROI of 2.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 349-381 but for +97.12 units and an ROI of 13.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 152-62 for +12.08 units and an ROI of 5.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-188 vs WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 618-708 record but for +33.18 units and an ROI of 2.5% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next gameSince 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1973-1855 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -243.57 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-101 at CHC), ST LOUIS (-108 at SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outingYou’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1958-2494 (44%) for -242.40 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+153 at ATL), MILWAUKEE (+109 at SD), TAMPA BAY (-102 at BAL), DETROIT (+127 at CLE), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+294 at NYY), HOUSTON (-133 at ATH)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outingGoing back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3976-3468 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -513.34 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-133 vs MIL), BALTIMORE (-120 vs TB), CLEVELAND (-155 vs DET), PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs NYM), ARIZONA (+128 vs LAD), SAN FRANCISCO (-113 vs STL), ATHLETICS (+109 vs HOU)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 37-95 skid (-35.31 units, ROI -26.8%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+127 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 91-172 (-60.30 units, ROI: -22.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+127 at CLE), TEXAS (-199 vs MIN)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 39-74 in their last 113 tries (-19.81 units, ROI: -17.5%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (+127 at CLE)
Losing Streak Betting System #6:Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 259-278 run (+5.30 units, ROI: 1.8%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+127 at CLE), TEXAS (-199 vs MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs NYM), HOUSTON (-133 at ATH)
Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 79-63 (+21.28 units, ROI: 15%) in their last 142 tries to extend streaks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-188 vs WSH), MIAMI (+158 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 181-144 (+15.67 units, ROI: 4.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+158 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 34-66 (-5.26 units, ROI: -5.3%) in their last 100 tries.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+158 at PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +294 (+95 diff), COLORADO +242 (+32), DETROIT +127 (+25), MILWAUKEE +109 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS -156 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Matches: MIL-SD OVER 7.5 (+0.5), LAD-AZ OVER 8.5 (+0.5), DET-CLE OVER 7.5 (+0.5), MIN-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5), COL-SEA OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:System Match: CWS-NYY UNDER 8 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) MILWAUKEE (95-63) at (954) SAN DIEGO (87-71)Trend: SD is 34-19 (+12.68 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-1.5 vs MIL)
(955) PITTSBURGH (68-89) at (956) CINCINNATI (80-77)Trend: PIT is 24-52 (-23.10 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-102 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 3-12 (-9.92 units) in matchups vs PIT or MIL with starter Hunter Greene in his career
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-119 vs PIT)
Trend: Under the total is 9-2 (+6.65 units) when Paul Skenes is a slight underdog (-108 to +111 line range) since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-CIN (o/u at 7)
(957) MIAMI (77-80) at (958) PHILADELPHIA (92-65)Trend: Over the total is 27-17-1 (+8.30 units) when MIA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 8)
(959) NEW YORK-NL (81-76) at (960) CHICAGO-NL (88-69)Trend: Matthew Boyd is 9-1 (+6.95 units) in home night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-120 vs NYM)
(961) LOS ANGELES-NL (88-69) at (962) ARIZONA (80-77)Trend: LAD is 34-40 (-26.15 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-156 at AZ)
(963) ST LOUIS (78-80) at (964) SAN FRANCISCO (77-81)Trend: SF is 19-7 (+13.42 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-113 vs STL)
Trend: Under the total is 17-6 (+10.45 units) when SF is favored with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-SF (o/u at 7.5)
(965) TAMPA BAY (76-81) at (966) BALTIMORE (74-83)Trend: TB is 11-3 (+8.97 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-102 at BAL)
(967) DETROIT (85-72) at (968) CLEVELAND (85-72)Trend: CLE is 60-40 (+15.75 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-1.5 vs DET)
(969) CHICAGO-AL (58-99) at (970) NEW YORK-AL (89-68)Trend: CWS is 88-60 (+15.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 at NYY)
(971) BOSTON (86-71) at (972) TORONTO (90-67)Trend: TOR is 57-34 (+18.54 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 vs BOS)
(973) MINNESOTA (68-89) at (974) TEXAS (79-78)Trend: Under the total is 49-29-1 (+17.10 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TEX is 12-3 (+6.31 units) in the last 15 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-199 vs MIN)
(977) HOUSTON (84-73) at (978) ATHLETICS (74-83)Trend: HOU is 4-9 (-6.46 units) with starter Hunter Brown as a -145 favorite or worse (including underdog) in divisional games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-133 at ATH)
Trend: Luis Severino is 16-36 (-17.18 units) in his last 52 games as an underdog
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+109 vs HOU)
(979) COLORADO (43-114) at (980) SEATTLE (88-69)Trend: Under the total is 45-29-2 (+13.10 units) in Rockies’ road games this season
Trend: Under the total is 11-1-1 (+10.05 units), going under the listed total by 2.38 runs on average, when Luis Castillo faces teams with a <= 45% win pct since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-SEA (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trend
Series #18: Boston at Toronto, Tue 9/23-Thu 9/25Trend: Underdogs are on a 27-11 (71.1%, +23.54 units) run in the Toronto-Boston AL East rivalry.
– The ROI on this trend is 61.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+105 vs BOS)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, September 26)
The post Steve Makinen’s MLB Picks from Betting Splits and Systems for Wednesday, September 24 appeared first on VSiN.
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