The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Monday, March 2, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* HOUSTON is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge versus non-conference foe Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-15.5 at WSH)

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* DENVER is 13-1 Over the total (93%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-UTA (o/u at 243.5)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: LAC-GSW UNDER 215.5 (projections have total at 210)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away/home scenario are 39-36 SU and 33-42 ATS vs. teams in 4th in 6 Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+7.5 vs BOS) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 36-34 SU and 25-42 ATS playing home games in the OneDayRest scenario since November 2023
Trend Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+1.5 vs LAC) 

* GOLDEN STATE is 136-101 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-GSW (o/u at 215.5) 

* DENVER is 13-1 Over the total (93%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
* DENVER is 89-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
* UTAH is 100-73 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-UTA (o/u at 243.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(523) HOUSTON at (524) WASHINGTON
* HOUSTON is on an 8-1 SU and ATS surge versus non-conference foe Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-15.5 at WSH)

(525) BOSTON at (526) MILWAUKEE* Under the total is 8-1 in the last nine of the Celtics-Bucks set
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIL (o/u at 215.5)

(527) DENVER at (528) UTAH* DENVER has won and covered all seven meetings with Utah since the start of March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 at UTA)

(529) LA CLIPPERS at (530) GOLDEN STATE* LA CLIPPERS are 7-1 SU and ATS in the last eight of the divisional series with Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (-1.5 at GSW) 

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-109 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 251-210 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 343-268 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-WSH (spread +15.5, total 224.5)
UNDER – DEN-UTA (spread +11.5, total 243.5) 

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #1:In Western Northwest divisional games, home underdogs are on a 18-22 SU and 28-12 ATS (70%) run since early-November 2024.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+11.5 vs DEN) 

Western Northwest Division Betting System #2:In Western Northwest divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game have their totals go Over at a 30-13 (69.8%) rate in the last 43 instances.
System Match (PLAY OVER): DEN-UTA (o/u at 243.5)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favoriteNBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 179-82 SU and 147-110-4 ATS (57.2%) (sub-system: 85-30 SU and 68-43-4 ATS (61.3%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 at UTA) 

Divisional upsets can create urgency
NBA teams that lose as favorites to divisional opponents have bounced back well when facing another divisional foe, going 112-70 SU and 106-73-3 ATS (59.2%) in that follow-up try over the last five seasons.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-11.5 at UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 113-130 SU but 135-106-3 ATS (56%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+11.5 vs DEN)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 17-58 SU and 31-41-3 ATS (43.1%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+11.5 vs DEN)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:20 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER, LA CLIPPERS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-UTA 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BOS-MIL, LAC-GSW

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-UTA

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +7.5 (+2.1)
2. WASHINGTON +15.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -11.5 (+1.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MILWAUKEE +7.5 (+2.3)
2. WASHINGTON +15.5 (+1.9)
3. UTAH +11.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: HOU-WSH OVER 224.5 (+0.5)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-GSW UNDER 215.5 (-1.7)
2. DEN-UTA UNDER 243.5 (-1.3)
3. BOS-MIL UNDER 215.5 (-0.6)

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1(tie). WASHINGTON +15.5 (+2.2)
MILWAUKEE +7.5 (+2.2) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER -11.5 (+1.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -1.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOU-WSH OVER 224.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-GSW UNDER 215.5 (-5.5)
2. DEN-UTA UNDER 243.5 (-2.9)
3. BOS-MIL UNDER 215.5 (-2.1)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Monday, March 2 appeared first on VSiN.