The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Saturday, March 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs UTA)
* DETROIT is 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-14.5 vs BKN)
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 307-171 SU but just 200-265-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs GSW)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* ORLANDO is 121-91 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-MIN (o/u at 224.5)
* BROOKLYN is 11-29 SU but 22-17-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+14.5 at DET)
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away game scenario are 18-36 SU and 21-32-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): LA CLIPPERS (-6.5 at MEM)
* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 223-280 SU but 281-214-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four easons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): UTAH (+10.5 at MIL), GOLDEN STATE (+14.5 at OKC)
* GOLDEN STATE is 136-102 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 219.5)
* NBA teams playing at home in a 2 Days Rest scenario were 54-27 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
* UTAH is 101-74 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* MILWAUKEE is 21-8 Under the total (72.4%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
System/Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in UTA-MIL (o/u at 234.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(515) ORLANDO at (516) MINNESOTA* Road teams are on a 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS surge in the ORL-MIN non-conference series since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+6.5 at MIN)
(517) BROOKLYN at (518) DETROIT* DETROIT is 6-2 SU and 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings with Brooklyn
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-14.5 vs BKN)
(519) PHILADELPHIA at (520) ATLANTA* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the 76ers-Hawks series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+6.5 at ATL)
* Over the total has converted in the last six matchups between PHI and ATL at State Farm Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 233.5)
(521) LA CLIPPERS at (522) MEMPHIS* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the Clippers-Grizzlies set at FedEx Forum
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-MEM (o/u at 228.5)
(523) UTAH at (524) MILWAUKEE* Favorites are 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine of the UTA-MIL non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs UTA)
(525) GOLDEN STATE at (526) OKLAHOMA CITY* Over the total has converted in all six meetings between Golden State and Oklahoma City at the Paycom Center since the start of 2023
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-OKC (o/u at 219.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 252-212 (54.3%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 344-271 (55.9%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-DET (spread -14.5, total 214.5), UTA-MIL (spread -10.5, total 234.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Back-to-back scoring outbursts could be the beginning of a trend
NBA teams coming off back-to-back wins in which they scored 130+ points in each outing have gone 100-65 SU and 89-74-2 ATS (54.6%) in the follow-up contest since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-6.5 vs PHI)
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 307-171 SU but just 200-265-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs GSW)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 149-27 SU but 77-96-3 ATS (44.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): OKLAHOMA CITY (-14.5 vs GSW)
NBA Streak Betting System #9:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been solid in the rare role of playing as double-digit favorites, going 16-1 SU and 13-3-1 ATS (81.3%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-10.5 vs UTA)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 308-353-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 40-160 SU and 88-106-6 ATS (45.4%).System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+14.5 at DET)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets have been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): MINNESOTA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT, ATLANTA, OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA ML, DETROIT ML, ATLANTA ML, OKLAHOMA CITY ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI. of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-ATL, UTA-MIL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-DET, GSW-OKC
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+2.3)
2. BROOKLYN +14.5 (+1.0)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+1.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+0.5)
3. MILWAUKEE -10.5 (+0.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: MEMPHIS +6.5 (+2.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+2.5)
2. MILWAUKEE -10.5 (+0.5)
3. DETROIT -14.5 (+0.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1(tie). ORL-MIN OVER 225.5 (+0.3)
UTA-MIL OVER 234.5 (+0.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-DET UNDER 214.5 (-1.2)
2. GSW-OKC UNDER 219.5 (-1.0)
3. PHI-ATL UNDER 233.5 (-0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PHILADELPHIA +6.5 (+2.4)
2. BROOKLYN +14.5 (+0.5)
3. MEMPHIS +6.5 (+0.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MINNESOTA -6.5 (+2.1)
2. MILWAUKEE -10.5 (+1.0)
3. OKLAHOMA CITY -14.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-ATL OVER 233.5 (+3.9)
2. ORL-MIN OVER 225.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-OKC UNDER 219.5 (-1.4)
2. BKN-DET UNDER 214.5 (-1.0)
3. LAC-MEM UNDER 228.5 (-0.2)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Saturday, March 7 appeared first on VSiN.
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