The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Over the total is 10-0-1 in the last 11 of the Pacers-Wizards series at Capital One Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-WSH (o/u at 232.5)
* NBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 175-80 SU and 145-106-4 ATS (57.8%) (sub-system: 83-29 SU and 67-41-4 ATS (62%) when favored by 4 points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 at CHA), TORONTO (-6.5 at CHI), ORLANDO (-8.5 at SAC)
* BOSTON is 17-3 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since June 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-GSW (o/u at 211.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-40 SU and 72-46-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
* DETROIT is 9-1 SU and ATS (90%) as an underdog this season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY of DETROIT, 1 PLAY of NEW YORK
* CLEVELAND is 6-3 SU but 1-8 ATS (11%) as a double-digit home favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-16.5 vs BKN)
* CHICAGO was 1-9 SU and ATS (10%) in its final 10 games before the All-Star break
* TORONTO is 11-3 SU and ATS (79%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-5.5 at CHI)
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 105-86 Under the total vs. teams in 3rd in 8+ Days games over the last three seasons
System Matches: PLAY UNDER IN ALL 10 GAMES TONIGHT
* ATLANTA is 18-35 SU and 15-38 ATS playing its 3rd Straight Road game since April 2021
* NBA teams playing at home in 3rd in 8+ Days scenario are 82-40 SU and 72-46-4 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System/Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATL)
* NBA teams playing on the road in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 16-24 SU and 14-25-1 ATS vs. teams in 3rd Straight Home games over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 at CHA), BOSTON (-5.5 at GSW)
* BOSTON is 17-3 Under the total playing its 4th in 10+ Days games since June 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-GSW (o/u at 211.5)
* INDIANA is 24-11 SU and 26-9 ATS playing in 3rd in 8+ Days games since March 2021
* WASHINGTON is 3-19 SU and 5-17 ATS (23%) vs. the lowest scoring teams in the league this season, currently scoring <114 PPG
* NBA teams playing at home in 3+ Days Rest scenario are 30-11 SU and 25-13-3 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games over the last four seasons
System/Trends Match: 1 PLAY of INDIANA, 1 PLAY/FADE of WASHINGTON
* NBA teams playing at home in 4th in 10+ Days scenario were 23-10 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): IND-WSH (o/u at 232.5)
* LA CLIPPERS are 11-5 SU and 13-3 ATS playing at home with 3+ Days Rest since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS (+4.5 vs DEN)
* LA CLIPPERS are 18-7 Under the total playing in 4th in 10+ Days games since January 2024
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DEN-LAC (o/u at 226.5)
* PHOENIX is 2-10 SU and ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since February 2023
* PHOENIX is 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS (85%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHOENIX (+7.5 at SAS)
* SAN ANTONIO is 13-5 Over the total playing on 3+ Days Rest since February 2022
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-SAS (o/u at 229.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) ATLANTA at (502) PHILADELPHIA* Over the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of the Hawks-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PHI (o/u at 237.5)
(503) BROOKLYN at (504) CLEVELAND* Underdogs are on a 12-2 ATS surge in the Nets-Cavs series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+16.5 at CLE)
(505) HOUSTON at (506) CHARLOTTE* Road teams are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in the HOU-CHA non-conference set since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-4.5 at CHA)
(507) INDIANA at (508) WASHINGTON
* Over the total is 10-0-1 in the last 11 of the ND-WSH series at Capital One Arena
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): IND-WSH (o/u at 232.5)
(509) DETROIT at (510) NEW YORK* DETROIT is 7-2 ATS in the last nine trips to Madison Square Garden
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+4.5 at NYK)
(511) TORONTO at (512) CHICAGO* Favorites have won and covered all three meetings between Toronto and Chicago since February 2025
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-5.5 at CHI)
(513) PHOENIX at (514) SAN ANTONIO* Home teams are 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six of the PHX-SAS series
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 vs PHX)
(515) BOSTON at (516) GOLDEN STATE* Under the total is 11-2 in the Celtics-Warriors cross-country series at Golden State since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-GSW (o/u at 211.5)
(517) ORLANDO at (518) SACRAMENTO* Over the total has converted in all six matchups between Orlando and Sacramento at Golden1 Center since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ORL-SAC (o/u at 224.5)
(519) DENVER at (520) LA CLIPPERS* DENVER is on a 6-0 ATS surge versus LAC dating back to their WCF First Round Game 4 matchup last year
Trend Match (PLAY): DENVER (-4.5 at LAC)
NBA Post-All-Star Break Trends
The following handicapping information details betting trends for teams through Sunday in the first week/weekend coming out of the All-Star break. Unless noted, these are from the last four NBA seasons.
* In PASB games with totals >= 235, Under the total is on a 28-13-3 (68.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-PHI (o/u at 238.5)
* In PASB games, teams on winning or losing streaks of 4+ games that are playing as underdogs are 1-23 SU and 7-17 ATS (29.2%) in the last four seasons.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs TOR), SACRAMENTO (+8.5 vs ORL)
* In their first PASB game, favorites boasting above-average defensive stats (<= 113.5 PPG allowed) have gone 30-13 SU and 26-16-1 ATS (61.9%) in the last four seasons.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON, DETROIT, HOUSTON, PHOENIX, NEW YORK, SAN ANTONIO, TORONTO, LA CLIPPERS
* In PASB games between two teams both having 33+ wins already, favorites are on a 14-5 SU and 13-6 ATS (68.4%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs DET)
* In the last 24 PASB non-conference games, Eastern Conference teams have gone 16-8 SU and 19-5 ATS (79.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE (+4.5 vs HOU), BOSTON (-5.5 at GSW), ORLANDO (-8.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 182-68 SU and 146-103-1 ATS (58.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs DET)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 134-105 SU and 136-100-3 ATS (57.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 94-40 SU and 81-52-1 ATS (60.9%).
System Match (PLAY): INDIANA (-2.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-43 SU and 23-31-2 ATS (42.6%) in their last 56 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): GOLDEN STATE (+5.5 vs BOS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 135-106 (56%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 247-209 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 337-264 (56.1%).System Match (PLAY): OVER – BKN-CLE (spread -16.5, total 229.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 188-109 SU but 137-156-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 109-138 ATS (44.1%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATL)
Favorites flush low-scoring totals quicklyNBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 159-59 SU and 129-87-2 ATS (59.7%) in their last 218 tries.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 vs ATL)
Road favorites bounce back after losing as home favoriteNBA teams that come off a game in which they lost as home favorites flush that result quickly when next a road favorite, going 175-80 SU and 145-106-4 ATS (57.8%) (sub-system: 83-29 SU and 67-41-4 ATS (62%) when favored by 4-points or more versus intraconference foes) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (-4.5 at CHA), TORONTO (-6.5 at CHI), ORLANDO (-8.5 at SAC)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 335-257 SU but 268-309-15 ATS (46.4%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): NEW YORK (-4.5 vs DET)
Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 387-336 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-CLE (o/u at 229.5)
NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 195-212 SU and 184-213-10 ATS (46.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): ORLANDO (-8.5 at SAC)
High TO games can be significantNBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 94-64 SU and 96-61-1 ATS (61.1%) in their last 158 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR HOUSTON at CHA, -4.5 CURRENTLY
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #1:Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 146-27 SU but 75-95-3 ATS (44.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CLEVELAND (-16.5 vs BKN)
NBA Streak Betting System #7:Teams who have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-98-2 (58.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): TOR-CHI (o/u at 231.5), ORL-SAC (o/u at 223.5)
NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 110-124 SU but 131-101-3 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+6.5 vs TOR)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 298-342-4 ATS (46.6%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+8.5 vs ORL)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and a ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, TORONTO, BOSTON, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and a ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW YORK
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, BOSTON
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and a ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, NEW YORK, TORONTO, SAN ANTONIO, DENVER
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and a ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA ML, CLEVELAND ML, NEW YORK ML, SAN ANTONIO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-CLE, TOR-CHI
UNDER – ATL-PHI, IND-WSH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – HOU-CHA, BOS-GSW
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +4.5 (+3.5)
2. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+3.3)
3. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+2.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -16.5 (+0.8)
2. SAN ANTONIO -7.5 (+0.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT +4.5 (+4.0)
2. CHARLOTTE +4.5 (+2.3)
3. CHICAGO +6.5 (+2.0)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: ORLANDO -8.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CLE OVER 229.5 (+4.8)
2. BOS-GSW OVER 211.5 (+1.5)
3. ATL-PHI OVER 238.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-SAS UNDER 229.5 (-4.6)
2. ORL-SAC UNDER 224.5 (-2.5)
3. TOR-CHI UNDER 231.5 (-2.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. LA CLIPPERS +4.5 (+3.1)
2. GOLDEN STATE +5.5 (+2.5)
3. SACRAMENTO +8.5 (+2.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -16.5 (+0.6)
2. INDIANA -2.5 (+0.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DET-NYK OVER 221.5 (+1.6)
2. IND-WSH OVER 232.5 (+1.5)
3. ATL-PHI OVER 238.5 (+1.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-CLE UNDER 229.5 (-6.0)
2. PHX-SAS UNDER 229.5 (-4.1)
3. DEN-LAC UNDER 226.5 (-2.6)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Thursday, February 19 appeared first on VSiN.
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