The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, February 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 301-168 SU but just 196-260-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-15.5 vs WSH)
* PHILADELPHIA is 23-7 OVER the total playing on the ROAD in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-LAL (o/u at 233.5)
#1 UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the MAKINEN POWER RATINGS: ATLANTA -9.5 vs UTA (projections have line at -13.5)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario were 63-47 SU and 61-48 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+8.5 at TOR)
* CHARLOTTE is 5-19 SU and 7-17 ATS playing on the road in the 2 Days Rest scenario since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 at HOU)
* ATLANTA is 134-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2021
* UTAH is 99-69 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-ATL (o/u at 244.5)
* BROOKLYN is 11-25 SU but 22-13-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+10.5 at ORL)
* ORLANDO is 118-85 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-ORL (o/u at 214.5)
* LA LAKERS are 33-12 SU and 31-14 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
* PHILADELPHIA is 12-19 SU and 13-18 ATS playing in 3rd in 4 Days games since November 2024
Trends Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-4.5 vs PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 23-7 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-LAL (o/u at 233.5)
* GOLDEN STATE is 134-98 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-PHX (o/u at 215.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(515) BROOKLYN at (516) ORLANDO* BROOKLYN is 0-3 SU but 3-0 ATS in the last three games with Orlando
Trend Match (PLAY): BROOKLYN (+10.5 at ORL)
(517) WASHINGTON at (518) DETROIT* Road teams are 7-1 ATS in the last eight of the WSH-DET series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at DET)
(519) UTAH at (520) ATLANTA* Over the total has converted in all four matchups between Utah and Atlanta since March 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-ATL (o/u at 244.5)
(521) CHICAGO at (522) TORONTO* CHICAGO is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings with Toronto
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (+8.5 at TOR)
(523) CHARLOTTE at (524) HOUSTON* Favorites are on 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS surge in the CHA-HOU non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-3.5 vs CHA)
(527) GOLDEN STATE at (528) PHOENIX* PHOENIX is 9-2 SU and ATS in the last 11 games hosting divisional foe Golden State
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-6.5 vs GSW)
(529) PHILADELPHIA at (530) LA LAKERS* Under the total is 4-1 in the last five of the 76ers-Lakers cross-country series at Crypto.com Arena
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAL (o/u at 233.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 47-131 SU and 79-94-5 ATS (45.7%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+6.5 vs SAS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 134-105 (56.1%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 246-208 (54.2%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 331-263 (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-ORL (spread -10.5, total 214.5), WSH-DET (spread -15.5, total 226.5)
NBA Divisional Systems/Trends
The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games.
Western Southwest Division Betting System #1:In Western Southwest divisional games, favorites of 3.5 points or more are on a 48-14 SU and 36-26 ATS (58.1%) run since mid-February 2024.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-6.5 at DAL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forwardNBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 301-168 SU but just 196-260-13 ATS (43%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-15.5 vs WSH)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponentsNBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 173-217 SU and 168-218-4 ATS (43.5%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-9.5 vs UTA)
Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 383-333 (53.5%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-LAL (o/u at 234.5)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back well
NBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 192-166 SU and 197-151-10 ATS (56.6%) run.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at PHX)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 106-71 (59.9%) rate since 2021, including 51-28 (64.6%) to the Over in the last 79.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CHA-HOU (o/u at 216.5)
NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 25-77 SU and 46-56 ATS (45.1%) in their last 102 tries.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 at HOU), GOLDEN STATE (+6.5 at PHX)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #12:Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 16-53 SU and 29-37-3 ATS (43.9%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+6.5 vs SAS)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 294-336-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (+3.5 at HOU)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, UTAH, SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN, UTAH, CHARLOTTE, PHILADELPHIA
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): UTAH
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN ANTONIO, PHOENIX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, ATLANTA ML, TORONTO ML, PHOENIX ML, LA LAKERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHI-TOR, CHA-HOU, GSW-PHX
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-ORL
UNDER – CHA-HOU, GSW-PHX
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+4.1)
2. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+2.3)
3. WASHINGTON +15.5 (+0.6)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -9.5 (+4.0)
2. HOUSTON -3.5 (+2.7)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+2.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+2.0)
2. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+1.7)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -9.5 (+2.6)
2. DETROIT -15.5 (+1.9)
3. SAN ANTONIO -6.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHI-TOR OVER 223.5 (+3.8)
2. CHA-HOU OVER 216.5 (+2.2)
3. PHI-LAL OVER 233.5 (+0.1)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. UTA-ATL UNDER 244.5 (-2.4)
2. GSW-PHX UNDER 215.5 (-1.4)
3. BKN-ORL UNDER 214.5 (-0.2)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. GOLDEN STATE +6.5 (+3.4)
2. BROOKLYN +10.5 (+2.1)
3. CHICAGO +8.5 (+0.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ATLANTA -9.5 (+3.8)
2. HOUSTON -3.5 (+2.9)
3. LA LAKERS -3.5 (+2.0)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHI-TOR OVER 223.5 (+2.2)
CHA-HOU OVER 216.5 (+2.2)
3. BKN-ORL OVER 214.5 (+1.3)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-DAL UNDER 228.5 (-2.1)
2. PHI-LAL UNDER 233.5 (-1.0)
3. GSW-PHX UNDER 215.5 (-0.6)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Thursday, February 5 appeared first on VSiN.
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