The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 345-263 SU but 278-315-15 ATS (46.9%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 48-77-1 ATS (38.4%).System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs ORL)

* NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 instances of hosting LAC, including a win and cover last night
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs LAC)

* MIAMI is 31-13 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIA (o/u at 241.5)

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Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* WASHINGTON is 6-43 SU and 16-33 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs DET) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario were 71-57 SU and 70-57 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-13.5 at CHI) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 62-52 SU and 64-48 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at UTA) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in a One Day Rest scenario are 62-52 Over the total vs. teams in back-to-back away/home games over the last two seasons

* MILWAUKEE is 22-9 Under the total (71%) vs. teams that currently have losing records
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in MIL-UTA (o/u at 229.5) 

* ORLANDO is 122-93 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
* CHARLOTTE is 155-111 Under the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since March 2021
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CHA (o/u at 225.5)

* MIAMI is 31-13 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAL-MIA (o/u at 241.5) 

* SACRAMENTO is 10-18 SU and ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
Trend Match (FADE): SACRAMENTO (+2.5 vs PHI) 

* PHILADELPHIA is 27-11 Over the total playing on the road in One Day Rest games since November 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-SAC (o/u at 226.5) 

* PHOENIX is 9-6 SU and 11-4 ATS (73.3%) vs. teams currently scoring >118 PPG this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (+9.5 at SAS) 

* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 113-88 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): PHX-SAS (o/u at 227.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:

(551) DETROIT at (552) WASHINGTON* Underdogs are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 of the DET-WSH series
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs DET)

(553) ORLANDO at (554) CHARLOTTE* ORLANDO is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven trips to Charlotte
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (+5.5 at CHA)

* Under the total is 12-3-1 in the last 16 of their overall series as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ORL-CHA (o/u at 225.5)

(555) CLEVELAND at (556) CHICAGO* Over the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Cavs-Bulls divisional rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-CHI (o/u at 240.5)

(557) PHOENIX at (558) SAN ANTONIO* Home teams have won and covered the last seven meetings between PHX and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-9.5 vs PHX)

(559) LA CLIPPERS at (560) NEW ORLEANS* NEW ORLEANS is 9-3 SU and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 instances of hosting LAC, including a win and cover last night
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 vs LAC)

(561) LA LAKERS at (562) MIAMI* Home teams have won and covered all three matchups between LAL and MIA since the start of last season
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-3.5 vs LAL)

(563) MILWAUKEE at (564) UTAH* Favorites are on 8-2 SU and ATS surge in the MIL-UTA non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at UTA)

(565) PHILADELPHIA at (566) SACRAMENTO* Under the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of the 76ers-Kings cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-SAC (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 138-114 (54.8%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 261-216 (54.7%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 346-279 (55.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DET-WSH (spread +14.5, total 231.5)
UNDER – CLE-CHI (spread +13.5, total 241.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 11-34 SU and 19-25-1 ATS (43.2%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+13.5 vs CLE) 

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of troubleNBA teams off a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 193-112 SU but 141-160-4 ATS (46.8%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 113-142 ATS (44.3%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): MIAMI (-3.5 vs LAL)

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerous
NBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points offensively have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 116-77-1 ATS (60.1%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs DET) 

Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 345-263 SU but 278-315-15 ATS (46.9%) over the last seven seasons.  The worst situation for these teams comes against divisional rivals, 48-77-1 ATS (38.4%).System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-5.5 vs ORL) 

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponentsNBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 177-220 SU and 172-221-4 ATS (43.8%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): LA LAKERS (+3.5 at MIA)

Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 349-359 SU and 324-376-8 ATS (46.3%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-9.5 vs PHX)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 204-216 SU and 194-216-10 ATS (47.3%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-5.5 at UTA)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 116-137 SU but 142-109-3 ATS (56.6%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+5.5 vs MIL) 

NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 321-366-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+14.5 vs DET), LA LAKERS (+3.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHARLOTTE, NEW ORLEANS, MIAMI, SACRAMENTO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #5: Concerning number of bets. When 70% or more of the number of bets has been on a home side of an ATS wager since January 2023, this “super” majority group has gone just 104-142 ATS (42.3%), well below the overall performance of all majorities. This has resulted in a net loss of -52.2 units for an ROI of -21.2%.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI, SACRAMENTO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, SAN ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handles doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, SAN ANTONIO ML, NEW ORLEANS ML, UTAH ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): LAC-NOP, LAL-MIA, PHI-SAC 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – PHI-SAC
UNDER – CLE-CHI

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +12.5 (+4.2)
2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+4.1)
3. SACRAMENTO +2.5 (+1.1) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -9.5 (+4.2)
2. DETROIT -14.5 (+2.5)
3. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+1.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHICAGO +12.5 (+6.7)
2. LA LAKERS +3.5 (+2.5)
3. PHOENIX +9.5 (+0.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DETROIT -14.5 (+2.4)
2. MILWAUKEE -5.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. LAC-NOP OVER 231.5 (+4.9)
2. PHX-SAS OVER 226.5 (+1.5)
3. MIL-UTA OVER 229.5 (+1.3) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-SAC UNDER 226.5 (-2.2)
2. ORL-CHA UNDER 225.5 (-1.3)
3. DET-WSH UNDER 231.5 (-0.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON +14.5 (+10.0)
2. CHICAGO +12.5 (+7.9)
3. UTAH +5.5 (+7.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN ANTONIO -9.5 (+4.7)
2. PHILADELPHIA -2.5 (+0.7) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHX-SAS OVER 226.5 (+3.9)
2. LAC-NOP OVER 231.5 (+3.7)
3. MIL-UTA OVER 229.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. PHI-SAC UNDER 226.5 (-4.1)
2. ORL-CHA UNDER 225.5 (-1.8)
3. DET-WSH UNDER 231.5 (-1.2)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Thursday, March 19 appeared first on VSiN.