The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Thursday, March 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 306-171 SU but just 199-265-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs LAL)
* NEW ORLEANS is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
* WASHINGTON is 6-41 SU and 15-32 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs UTA)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* DETROIT is 10-1 SU and ATS (90.9%) as an underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (+3.5 at SAS)
* BROOKLYN is 11-28 SU but 22-16-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
* MIAMI is 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) vs. the current lowest scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
Trends Match: 1 PLAY ON BROOKLYN, 1 PLAY ON MIAMI
* MIAMI is 27-12 Over the total playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 226.5)
* DALLAS is just 2-14 SU and 4-12 ATS (25%) vs. winning teams on the road this season
Trend Match (FADE): DALLAS (+9.5 at ORL)
* ORLANDO is 120-91 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-ORL (o/u at 228.5)
* WASHINGTON is 6-41 SU and 15-32 ATS playing at home in 4th in 6 Days games since April 2022
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-3.5 vs UTA)
* UTAH is 20-8 Under the total playing in the back-to-back away games since March 2021
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UTA-WSH (o/u at 243.5)
* HOUSTON is 18-9 Under the total (66.7%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): GSW-HOU (o/u at 214.5)
* CHICAGO is 2-15 SU and 4-13 ATS (23.5%) in its last 17 games
* PHOENIX is 15-17 SU and 11-20 ATS playing in all 3rd in 8+ Days games since October 2021
Trends Match: 1 FADE OF CHICAGO, 1 FADE OF PHOENIX
* NBA teams playing in One Day Rest scenario are 174-115 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CHI-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 223-279 SU but 281-213-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5.5 at DEN)
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 109-83 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-SAC (o/u at 234.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(563) UTAH at (564) WASHINGTON* Over the total is 9-2-2 in the last 13 of the Jazz-Wizards non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): UTA-WSH (o/u at 243.5)
* UTAH is on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS surge in overall games with Washington
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at WSH)
(565) DALLAS at (566) ORLANDO* Underdogs are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five of the DAL-ORL set at the Kia Center
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+9.5 at ORL)
(567) GOLDEN STATE at (568) HOUSTON* Road teams are 13-4 ATS in the last 17 of the GSW-HOU set
Trend Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (+8.5 at HOU)
(569) BROOKLYN at (570) MIAMI* Under the total has converted in the last seven matchups between Brooklyn and Miami, including an under two days ago
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 226.5)
(571) DETROIT at (572) SAN ANTONIO* Favorites are on a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS run in the Pistons-Spurs set in San Antonio
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 vs DET)
* Under the total is also 5-0 in the last five games of the series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-SAS (o/u at 228.5)
(573) TORONTO at (574) MINNESOTA* TORONTO is 9-5 SU and 11-3 ATS versus Minnesota since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+5.5 at MIN)
(575) CHICAGO at (576) PHOENIX* Over the total is 5-1 in the Bulls-Suns non-conference series since the start of the 2022-23 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-PHX (o/u at 224.5)
(577) LA LAKERS at (578) DENVER* Road teams are on an extended 13-4 ATS run in the LAL-DEN set
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (+5.5 at DEN)
(579) NEW ORLEANS at (580) SACRAMENTO* NEW ORLEANS is 8-3 SU and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings with Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 185-68 SU and 147-105-1 ATS (58.3%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-5.5 vs LAL)
ALSO WATCH FOR SAN ANTONIO vs DEN (-3.5 CURRENTLY)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 139-108 SU and 141-103-3 ATS (57.8%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at WSH)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 98-41 SU and 85-53-1 ATS (61.6%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-5.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-110 (55.5%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 252-211 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 343-270 (56%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-MIA (spread -12.5, total 226.5), CHI-PHX (spread -10.5, total 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forwardNBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 306-171 SU but just 199-265-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (-5.5 vs LAL)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 339-262 SU but 273-313-15 ATS (46.6%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 vs DET)
Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 392-339 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DAL-ORL (o/u at 228.5), LAL-DEN (o/u at 240.5)
Unusual defensive performancesNBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 179-121 SU and 168-125-7 ATS (57.3%) since ’21.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-3.5 vs DET)
Massive rebounding differentialsNBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-79 SU and 48-58 ATS (45.3%) in their last 106 tries.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+5.5 at MIN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #10:Teams having lost their last four games or more have been a solid wager when they are a capable offensive team, as those scoring 114 PPG or more are on a 113-132 SU but 137-106-3 ATS (56.4%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): UTAH (+3.5 at WSH)
NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 307-351-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more have been bad in road games, going 39-158 SU and 87-104-6 ATS (45.5%).System Matches (FADE ALL): UTAH (+3.5 at WSH), BROOKLYN (+12.5 at MIA)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, SAN ANTONIO, CHICAGO, LA LAKERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ORLANDO, SAN ANTONIO, MINNESOTA, CHICAGO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-WSH, DAL-ORL, TOR-MIN, LAL-DEN
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – BKN-MIA, DET-SAS
UNDER – DAL-ORL
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – GSW-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTA-WSH, DAL-ORL, LAL-DEN
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+2.9)
2. DETROIT +3.5 (+1.6)
3. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -8.5 (+0.8)
2. PHOENIX -10.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+3.1)
2. DALLAS +8.5 (+2.5)
3. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+1.4)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. WASHINGTON -3.5 (+0.3)
2. MIAMI -13.5 (+0.5)
3. MINNESOTA -5.5 (+0.2)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DET-SAS OVER 228.5 (+2.3)
2. UTA-WSH OVER 243.5 (+0.4)
3. GSW-HOU OVER 213.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIA UNDER 227.5 (-4.0)
2. DAL-ORL UNDER 230.5 (-2.2)
3. CHI-PHX UNDER 224.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. LA LAKERS +5.5 (+2.6)
2. SACRAMENTO +5.5 (+2.3)
3. DETROIT +3.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON -8.5 (+1.1)
2. PHOENIX -10.5 (+0.9)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-HOU OVER 213.5 (+1.3)
2. TOR-MIN OVER 226.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BKN-MIA UNDER 227.5 (-3.9)
2. DET-SAS UNDER 228.5 (-3.0)
3. DAL-ORL UNDER 230.5 (-1.7)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Thursday, March 5 appeared first on VSiN.
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