The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Tuesday, March 3, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 175-217 SU and 169-219-4 ATS (43.6%) (sub-system: 18-46 SU and 19-43-2 ATS (30.6%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs OKC)

* NEW YORK is 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in divisional rivalry with Toronto since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at TOR)

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* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario are 92-48 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-SAC (o/u at 223.5)

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.

* CLEVELAND is just 14-17 SU and 9-22 ATS (29%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+2.5 vs DET)

* DETROIT is 15-3 Under the total (83.3%) as a favorite of 1.5 to 5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (spread DET -2.5, o/u at 228.5)

* NBA teams playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario are 222-277 SU but 280-211-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BROOKLYN (+13.5 at MIA), DALLAS (+12.5 at CHA), NEW YORK (-2.5 at TOR)

* MIAMI is 11-5 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) vs. the current lowest-scoring teams in the league, scoring <114 PPG
* BROOKLYN is 11-27 SU but 22-15-1 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since November 2024
Trends Match: 1 PLAY of MIAMI, 1 PLAY of BROOKLYN

* CHARLOTTE is 11-37 SU and 16-31-1 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since March 2022
Trend Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 vs DAL)

* OKLAHOMA CITY is 93-19 SU and 68-41-3 ATS playing in all One Day Rest games since April 2024
* CHICAGO is 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS (18.8%) in its last 16 games
Trends Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at CHI)

* ORLANDO is 120-90 Under the total playing in all One Day Rest games since March 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-ORL (o/u at 228.5)

* NBA teams playing on 3+ Days Rest scenario are 85-62 SU and 86-60-1 ATS vs. teams in One Day Rest games over the last three seasons
* PHOENIX is 2-11 SU and ATS playing on the road in 3rd in 8+ Days games since February 2023
* PHOENIX is 10-2 SU and 11-1 ATS (92%) vs teams currently winning less than 40% of their games this season
Systems/Trend Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of PHOENIX (-10.5 at SAC)

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario are 92-48 Under the total vs. teams in 4th in 10+ Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHX-SAC (o/u at 223.5)

* NBA teams playing at home in the One Day Rest scenario were 109-81 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAS-PHI (o/u at 234.5), NOP-LAL (o/u at 243.5)

* SAN ANTONIO is 13-18 SU and 10-21 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
Trend Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at PHI)

* LA LAKERS are 36-15 SU and 34-17 ATS playing at home in One Day Rest games since January 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): LA LAKERS (-8.5 vs NOP)

* LA LAKERS are 11-3 Over the total (78.6%) at home versus teams that currently have losing records
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-LAL (o/u at 243.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(531) DALLAS at (532) CHARLOTTE* Underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the Dallas-Charlotte non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+12.5 at CHA)

(533) DETROIT at (534) CLEVELAND* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of this divisional series at Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 228.5)

(535) WASHINGTON at (536) ORLANDO* Favorites are on a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS surge in this divisional set at the Kia Center
Trend Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs WSH)

(537) BROOKLYN at (538) MIAMI* Under the total has converted in the last six matchups between Brooklyn and Miami
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 225.5)

(539) NEW YORK at (540) TORONTO* NEW YORK is 11-0 SU and 9-1-1 ATS in its divisional rivalry with Toronto since the start of the 2023-24 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-2.5 at TOR)

(541) OKLAHOMA CITY at (542) CHICAGO* OKLAHOMA CITY is on a 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS surge versus Chicago
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY (-10.5 at CHI)

(543) SAN ANTONIO at (544) PHILADELPHIA* Over the total is 9-2-2 in the last 13 of the Spurs-76ers series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SAS-PHI (o/u at 234.5)

(545) MEMPHIS at (546) MINNESOTA* Over the total is 7-2 in the last nine of the Grizzlies-Timberwolves series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MEM-MIN (o/u at 236.5)

(547) NEW ORLEANS at (548) LA LAKERS
* Over the total has converted in all four meetings between New Orleans and the LA Lakers at Crypto.com Arena since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-LAL (o/u at 243.5)

(549) PHOENIX at (550) SACRAMENTO
* Favorites are on a 13-0 SU and 10-3 ATS run in the last 13 of the Suns-Kings divisional series
Trend Match (PLAY): PHOENIX (-10.5 at SAC)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five points or more have gone 13-46 SU and 24-33-2 ATS (42.1%) in their last 59 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+7.5 vs SAS)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #6:
Divisional single-digit home underdogs winning 38% of their games or less have gone 47-134 SU and 80-96-5 ATS (45.5%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET, BUT WATCH FOR SACRAMENTO vs PHX (+10.5 CURRENTLY)

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-109 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 251-210 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 343-268 (56.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – DAL-CHA (spread -12.5, total 230.5), BKN-MIA (spread -13.5, total 225.5), OKC-CHI (spread +10.5, total 227.5), MEM-MIN (spread -13.5, total 236.5)
UNDER – PHX-SAC (spread +10.5, total 222.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Atlantic Division Betting System #2:In Eastern Atlantic divisional games, home underdogs of five points or less have gone 16-41 SU and 19-36-2 ATS (34.5%) since late April 2021.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+2.5 vs NYK)

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #1:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, teams playing a third straight home game are 25-13 SU and 24-12-2 ATS (66.7%) since early March 2023.
System Match (PLAY): ORLANDO (-15.5 vs WSH)

Eastern Southeast Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Southeast divisional games, road teams playing on a b2b are 14-18 SU and ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2021-22 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at ORL)

NBA Extreme Stats Next-Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

Teams losing despite scoring well are dangerousNBA teams coming off back-to-back losses in which they scored 115+ points have bounced back extremely well in the next outing when installed as underdogs, going 113-73-1 ATS (60.8%) since the start of the 2018-2019 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at ORL)

Favorites flush low-scoring totals quicklyNBA teams that come off a game in which they scored 90 points or fewer have responded well when favored in the next outing, going 161-61 SU and 131-89-2 ATS (59.5%) in their last 222 tries.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at PHI)

Rout wins are a warning sign for next contest for hostsNBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20 points or more are 339-260 SU but 272-312-15 ATS (46.6%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs OKC)

Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next-game stumbles versus non-conference foesNBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 175-217 SU and 169-219-4 ATS (43.6%) (sub-system: 18-46 SU and 19-43-2 ATS (30.6%) vs. opponents giving up <= 108 PPG) since late January 2021.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (+10.5 vs OKC)

Unusual shooting performance systemsNBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 391-339 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): DET-CLE (o/u at 228.5)

NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3-point field goal attempts in a game have responded the next time out by going just 344-353 SU and 318-371-8 ATS (46.2%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at ORL)

NBA road teams coming off a game in which they made 20+ 3-point shots have gone just 201-215 SU and 191-215-10 ATS (47%) in that next contest over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE): PHOENIX (-10.5 at SAC)

Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 106-74 (58.9%) rate since 2021, including 51-31 (62.2%) to the Over in the last 82.
System Match (PLAY OVER): WSH-ORL (o/u at 229.5)

NBA road underdogs that had a -20 or worse rebounding differential in their previous game have gone 27-78 SU and 48-57 ATS (45.7%) in their last 105 tries.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #1:Teams having won their last four games or more have been a risky bet when playing as double-digit home favorites, going 148-27 SU BUT 76-96-3 ATS (44.2%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (FADE ATS): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 vs DAL)

NBA Streak Betting System #7:Teams that have lost at least their last four games and are facing an opponent on 2+ Days Rest have had their games go Over the total at a 138-102-2 (57.5%) rate since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): BKN-MIA (o/u at 225.5)

NBA Streak Betting System #12:
Teams on losing streaks of five games or more have struggled as divisional underdogs, going 17-59 SU and 32-41-3 ATS (43.8%) since the start of the 2023-24 season.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+15.5 at ORL)

NBA Streak Betting System #14:
Teams reaching winning OR losing streaks of seven games or more become play-against teams in general, going 307-350-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020, and in particular, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more have been bad in road games, going 39-157 SU and 87-103-6 ATS (45.8%).
System Match (FADE): BROOKLYN (+13.5 at MIA)

Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in 2025-26, so perhaps tread lightly. Still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, NEW YORK, OKLAHOMA CITY, SAN ANTONIO, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHARLOTTE, OKLAHOMA CITY, SAN ANTONIO

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA, NEW ORLEANS

DK NBA Betting Splits system #8: Naturally, with super majority handle doing well on non-conference and non-divisional conference games as compared to the overall, the area where these groups would figure to struggle would be in divisional games. The super-majority number is a little higher, however, 67% in fact. When this super-majority number has backed a team in divisional games over the last three seasons, they are just 166-189 ATS, good for 46.8%. This is a 3%+ drop compared to the overall majority figures and has resulted in -41.9 units of loss and an ROI of -11.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, ORLANDO, NEW YORK

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1,454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHARLOTTE ML, ORLANDO ML, MIAMI ML, MINNESOTA ML, LA LAKERS ML

DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have uncovered is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number has favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-ORL, BKN-MIA, NYK-TOR, OKC-CHI, MEM-MIN, PHX-SAC

DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – WSH-ORL, BKN-MIA
UNDER – DAL-CHA

DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WSH-ORL

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+3.2)
2. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+1.5)
3. CHICAGO +10.5 (+1.3)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+2.5)
2. ORLANDO -15.5 (+0.8)
3. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+0.7)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+2.1)
2. DALLAS +13.5 (+1.7)
3. MEMPHIS +13.5 (+1.0)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+0.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO -7.5 (+0.3)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. DET-CLE OVER 227.5 (+1.3)
2. MEM-MIN OVER 236.5 (+1.1)
3. OKC-CHI OVER 227.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-LAL UNDER 243.5 (-2.7)
2. SAS-PHI UNDER 234.5 (-1.8)
3. PHX-SAC UNDER 222.5 (-1.5)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches:
1. SACRAMENTO +10.5 (+2.8)
2. TORONTO +2.5 (+1.5)
3. BROOKLYN +13.5 (+1.1)

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MINNESOTA -13.5 (+3.4)
2. LA LAKERS -8.5 (+1.4)
3. DETROIT -2.5 (+0.4)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. DET-CLE OVER 227.5 (+1.3)
2. MEM-MIN OVER 236.5 (+1.1)
3. DAL-CHA OVER 230.5 (+1.0)

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NOP-LAL UNDER 243.5 (-4.0)
2. SAS-PHI UNDER 234.5 (-1.7)
3. PHX-SAC UNDER 222.5 (-1.6)

The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Tuesday, March 3 appeared first on VSiN.