The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 25, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

* NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 94-66 SU and 96-63-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 160 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at MEM) 

* Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 73-97-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game, including 34-48 ATS (41.5%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at TOR) 

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the MAKINEN BETTORS RATINGS: BOS-DEN UNDER 228.5 (projections have total at 225.2) 

Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping

The following NBA betting trends are an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures. 

* OKLAHOMA CITY is just 3-6 SU and 1-8 ATS (11%) on the back end of back-to-back games
Trend Match (FADE): OKLAHOMA CITY (+7.5 at DET) 

* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 65-51 SU and 63-52 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since the start of last season
* SAN ANTONIO is 12-18 SU and 10-20 ATS playing on the road in the One Day Rest scenario since January 2025
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at TOR) 

* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away scenario are 18-33 SU and 21-29-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): BOSTON (+3.5 at DEN) 

* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 52-26 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-DEN (o/u at 228.5)

* GOLDEN STATE is 14-3 Over the total (82%) as a favorite of -5.5 to -9.5 points this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR GSW-MEM (spread GSW -3.5, total 227.5) 

* HOUSTON is 18-8 Under the total (69.2%) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAC-HOU (o/u at 221.5)

Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games: 

(523) OKLAHOMA CITY at (524) DETROIT
* Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Thunder-Pistons non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-DET (o/u at 219.5) 

(525) GOLDEN STATE at (526) MEMPHIS
* Over the total has converted in seven of the last eight meetings between Golden State and Memphis
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): GSW-MEM (o/u at 227.5) 

(527) SAN ANTONIO at (528) TORONTO
* SAN ANTONIO has won and covered all four meetings with Toronto since the start of 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at TOR) 

(529) CLEVELAND at (530) MILWAUKEE
* CLEVELAND is 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three trips to divisional foe Milwaukee
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-8.5 at MIL) 

(531) SACRAMENTO at (532) HOUSTON
* Underdogs are 6-4 SU and 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 of the SAC-HOU series
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (+13.5 at HOU) 

(533) BOSTON at (534) DENVER
* Under the total is 10-3-1 in the Celtics-Nuggets non-conference set since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-DEN (o/u at 228.5)

NBA Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons. 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:
In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 183-68 SU and 147-103-1 ATS (58.8%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-7.5 vs OKC) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #5:
Home teams with a winning record that are underdogs of five-points or more have gone 13-45 SU and 23-33-2 ATS (41.1%) in their last 58 non-conference games.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (+7.5 vs SAS) 

NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:
Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, dependent upon what type of matchup it was. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 136-108 (55.7%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 248-210 (54.1%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 340-266 (56.1%).
System Match (PLAY): OVER – SAC-HOU (spread -13.5, total 221.5)

The following handicapping information details betting systems for divisional games. 

Eastern Central Division Betting System #2:
In Eastern Central divisional games, underdogs on a back-to-back situation are 10-34 SU and 18-25-1 ATS (41.9%) since January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+8.5 vs CLE)

NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted. 

High TO games can be significant
NBA teams that committed 20+ turnovers in the previous game have done well in expected-tight matchups (within -4 to +4 line range) in the follow-up game, going 94-66 SU and 96-63-1 ATS (60.4%) in their last 160 tries.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE (-3.5 at MEM) 

NBA Streak Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA. 

NBA Streak Betting System #2:
Teams having won their last four games or more have been a solid wager when playing as large road favorites of 7.5 points or more, going 93-24 SU and 64-50-3 ATS (56.1%) since the start of the 2020-21 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at TOR) 

NBA Streak Betting System #15:
Teams reaching an 8-game winning streak have become profitable fade opportunities, going 73-97-1 ATS (42.9%) in the next game, including 34-48 ATS (41.5%) on the road over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): SAN ANTONIO (-7.5 at TOR)

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Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage. 

To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results: 

– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units
– ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8% 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently.  If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): GOLDEN STATE, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%).  This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, MILWAUKEE, DENVER

DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DETROIT, SAN ANTONIO 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): GOLDEN STATE 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT ML, HOUSTON ML, DENVER ML 

DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – OKC-DET

Today’s NBA Strength Ratings

The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses). 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+3.3)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +7.5 (+2.7)
3. TORONTO +7.5 (+2.0) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CLEVELAND -8.5 (+1.1)
2. HOUSTON -13.5 (+0.7)
3. DENVER -3.5 (+0.4) 

Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+5.7)
2. OKLAHOMA CITY +7.5 (+0.7)
3. TORONTO +7.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: DENVER -3.5 (+2.1) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MEM OVER 227.5 (+2.0)
2. BOS-DEN OVER 228.5 (+1.6)
3. OKC-DET OVER 219.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAS-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-1.2)
2. SAC-HOU UNDER 221.5 (-0.9) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. OKLAHOMA CITY +7.5 (+3.7)
2. MEMPHIS +3.5 (+2.5)
3. TORONTO +7.5 (+1.7) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: HOUSTON -13.5 (+1.0) 

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. GSW-MEM OVER 227.5 (+0.4)
2. OKC-DET OVER 219.5 (+0.2) 

Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BOS-DEN UNDER 228.5 (-3.3)
2. CLE-MIL UNDER 227.5 (-1.4)
3. SAS-TOR UNDER 229.5 (-0.7)

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