The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, February 4, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well in the next contest as well, going 177-116 SU and 165-121-7 ATS (57.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2.5 vs MIN)
* Over the total is on an extended 12-1 run in the Pelicans-Bucks series at Milwaukee since the start of the 2012-13 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MIL (o/u at 222.5)
* In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 133-104 SU and 135-99-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at MIL), MEMPHIS (+1.5 at SAC)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based upon their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based upon the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario were 63-46 SU and 61-47 ATS vs. teams in back-to-back home games since start of last season
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at MIL)
* NBA teams playing on the road in One Day Rest scenario are 214-269 SU but 272-203-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (-2.5 at TOR), MEMPHIS (+1.5 at SAC)
* NBA teams playing at home in 2 Days Rest scenario were 50-25 Over the total vs. teams in 3rd Straight Road games since the start of last season
System Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-TOR (o/u at 227.5)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 38-36 SU and 32-42 ATS vs. teams in 4thin6Days games over the last two seasons
System Match (FADE): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs DEN)
* NBA teams playing in back-to-back away/home scenario are 24-9 Under the total vs. teams in back-to-back away games over the last two seasons
* DENVER is 88-56 Over the total playing in 4th in 6 Days games since March 2021
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DEN-NYK (o/u at 224.5)
* HOUSTON is 122-100 Over the total playing in the One Day Rest scenario since December 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 213.5)
* CLEVELAND is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS playing in the 2 Days Rest scenario since December 2024
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-2.5 at LAC)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) DENVER at (502) NEW YORK* NEW YORK is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Denver, including three straight wins and covers at home
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs DEN)
(503) MINNESOTA at (504) TORONTO* Home teams are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the MIN-TOR non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2.5 vs MIN)
(505) NEW ORLEANS at (506) MILWAUKEE* Over the total is on an extended 12-1 run in the Pelicans-Bucks series at Milwaukee since the start of the 2012-13 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NOP-MIL (o/u at 222.5)
(507) BOSTON at (508) HOUSTON* Under the total is 5-1 in the last six of the Celtics-Rockets set at the Toyota Center
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-HOU (o/u at 213.5)
(509) OKLAHOMA CITY at (510) SAN ANTONIO* Under the total has converted in six of the last eight matchups between OKC and SAS
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): OKC-SAS (o/u at 222.5)
(511) MEMPHIS at (512) SACRAMENTO* Favorites are on an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS surge in the Grizzlies-Kings series at Sacramento
Trend Match (PLAY): SACRAMENTO (-1.5 vs MEM)
(513) CLEVELAND at (514) LA CLIPPERS* Over the total is 6-1 in the last seven of the Cavaliers-Clippers non-conference set in Los Angeles
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-LAC (o/u at 222.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 179-67 SU and 143-102-1 ATS (58.4%) run.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs DEN), HOUSTON (-4.5 vs BOS)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #2:In games between two teams with 40% or less winning percentages, and lines of 4.5 or less either way, road teams are on a 133-104 SU and 135-99-3 ATS (57.7%) surge.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at MIL), MEMPHIS (+1.5 at SAC)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #3:NBA road favorites winning 36% of their games or less are on an impressive surge of 94-38 SU and 81-50-1 ATS (61.8%).
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at MIL)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Allowing 135+ points in a game is a sign of trouble
NBA teams off of a game in which they allowed 135+ points and are now favored have gone 185-108 SU but 135-154-4 ATS (46.7%) in the follow-up contest over the last seven seasons. Included among this is a 108-136 ATS (44.3%) mark when not playing the next day.System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-2.5 at TOR)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 172-217 SU and 167-218-4 ATS (43.4%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 vs NOP)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 382-331 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): DEN-NYK (o/u at 224.5), BOS-HOU (o/u at 213.5), MEMPHIS (+1.5 at SAC)
NBA teams that have made 50% or more of their 3PT field goal attempts in a contest have responded the next time out by going just 336-348 SU and 308-368-8 ATS (45.6%) in the next game over the last five seasons.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+5.5 vs NOP)
Teams not making many free throws bounce back wellNBA teams that are coming off a game in which they made six free throws or fewer have bounced back well in the next outing, and are on a 191-166 SU and 196-151-10 ATS (56.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+4.5 at HOU)
Unusual defensive performances
NBA teams that hold an opponent to 36% or less field goal percentage in any given game have produced well the next contest as well, going 177-116 SU and 165-121-7 ATS (57.7%) since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+2.5 vs MIN)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NBA Streak Betting System #14:Teams reaching winning or losing streaks of 7 games or more become play against teams in general, going 293-335-4 ATS (46.7%) in the next outing since 2020.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW YORK (-6.5 vs DEN), SACRAMENTO (-1.5 vs MEM)
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, to summarize, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the road side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a very consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): OKLAHOMA CITY, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #3: It is a somewhat rare situation, but when there was a majority handle backing a home underdog in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 135-106 ATS record (56%). This has netted +18.4 units and an ROI of 7.6%. As a general rule, most bettors tend to bet favorites. This lot of 241 games was only about 5.0% of the total sample size.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): SACRAMENTO
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE, CLEVELAND
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA CITY
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE ML, SACRAMENTO ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #11: One of the best, simplest, and most frequent angles I have been able to uncover is when a majority of handle bettors were backing the Under in an NBA game. It is generally believed that most NBA bettors prefer taking Overs. When any majority number have favored the Under option over the last 3+ seasons, the results have been strong, with Under the total on these games going 484-393, good for 55.2%, +51.7 units, and an ROI of +5.9% since January ’23.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): MIN-TOR, OKC-SAS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – MEM-SAC
DK NBA Betting Splits system #13: The average NBA game total since January of 2023 has been a bit more than 228. In NBA games with “low” totals, or those less than 220, majority handle bettors have gone an impressive 408-345 (54.2%), while majority number of bets groups are a bit less at 398-359 (52.6%). Both groups have proven profitable regardless of which side of the total they have chosen.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – BOS-HOU
DK NBA Betting Splits system #14: Majority handle Under bettors have been successful when sticking to their guns despite DraftKings raising total off of its opening number. These Under majorities have gone 200-153 (56.7%) since January 2023 by not getting baited into this totals trap. This has been the most profitable angle of all in terms of ROI, producing +31.7 units of profit for 9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-TOR
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+3.6)
2. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+2.1)
3. DENVER +6.5 (+0.9)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. DENVER +6.5 (+4.4)
2. SAN ANTONIO +2.5 (+2.0)
3. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+1.5)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+2.4)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CLE-LAC OVER 222.5 (+2.7)
2. BOS-HOU OVER 214.5 (+2.6)
3. DEN-NYK OVER 224.5 (+1.2)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Match: MEM-SAC UNDER 231.5 (-0.8)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. MEMPHIS +1.5 (+3.4)
2. LA CLIPPERS +2.5 (+3.1)
3. DENVER +6.5 (+1.3)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+1.5)
2. MINNESOTA -2.5 (+1.0)
3. HOUSTON -4.5 (+0.5)
Today’s Top 3 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-TOR OVER 227.5 (+3.4)
2. CLE-LAC OVER 222.5 (+3.3)
3. BOS-HOU OVER 214.5 (+2.5)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Wednesday, February 4 appeared first on VSiN.
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