The following NBA betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NBA games of Wednesday, March 11, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s NBA board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top NBA betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* HOME TEAMS are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Knicks-Jazz non-conference set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+14.5 vs NYK)
* Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 60-71 SU and 46-83-2 ATS (35.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 at SAC)
* TORONTO is 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-2.5 at NOP)
Schedule Situations Crucial for NBA Handicapping
The following is an expanded version of the article published in this year’s VSiN NBA Betting Guide, detailing scheduling situations in which teams have shown definitive patterns over the last few seasons. Typically, there are reasons that teams perform at varying levels based on their schedules, whether that be from the amount of rest they’ve gotten before a game, how fatigued they are from a string of games, or how they deal with injuries/workloads based on the schedule pressures.
* NBA teams playing on road in One Day Rest scenario are 223-284 SU but 282-217-8 ATS vs. teams in 2 Days Rest games over the last four seasons
* CLEVELAND is just 16-18 SU and 10-24 ATS (29.4%) vs. teams that have winning records right now this season
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of CLEVELAND (-3.5 at ORL)
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away game scenario are 19-36 SU and 21-33-1 ATS vs. hosts in 2 Days Rest games over the last two seasons
* TORONTO is 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS (76.5%) on the road versus teams that currently have losing records
System/Trend Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TORONTO (-2.5 at NOP)
* NBA teams playing in a back-to-back away game scenario are 31-48 SU and 31-47-1 ATS vs. teams in 4th Straight Home games over the last three seasons
* SACRAMENTO is 10-17 SU and 9-18 ATS playing in 3rd Straight Home games since November 2024
System/Trend Match: 1 FADE of CHARLOTTE, 1 FADE of SACRAMENTO
* UTAH is 102-75 Over the total playing in One Day Rest games since November 2022
* NBA teams playing at home in One Day Rest scenario were 110-84 Over the total vs. teams in 4th Straight Road games since the start of last Season
System/Trend Match (PLAY OVER): NYK-UTA (o/u at 230.5)
* MINNESOTA is 22-7 Over the total playing in the back-to-back away game scenario since December 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
Top Daily Head-to-Head Series NBA Betting Trends
Here are the top head-to-head series NBA betting trends in play for all of today’s games:
(501) CLEVELAND at (502) ORLANDO* Under the total has converted in all four meetings between Cleveland and Orlando since the start of 2025
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-ORL (o/u at 225.5)
(503) TORONTO at (504) NEW ORLEANS* Favorites are 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five of the TOR-NOP non-conference series
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-2.5 at NOP)
(505) NEW YORK at (506) UTAH* Home teams are 10-3 SU and 11-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Knicks-Jazz set
Trend Match (PLAY): UTAH (+14.5 vs NYK)
(507) CHARLOTTE at (508) SACRAMENTO* Road teams are 5-1 ATS in the last six of the CHA-SAC cross-country series
Trend Match (PLAY): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 at SAC)
(509) HOUSTON at (510) DENVER* Road teams are 6-1 ATS in the last seven of the HOU-DEN series
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+6.5 at DEN)
(511) MINNESOTA at (512) LA CLIPPERS* Underdogs are on 10-1 ATS in the last 11 of the Twolves-Clippers series
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+1.5 at LAC)
* Under the total is 10-1 in these last 11 games as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAC (o/u at 227.5)
NBA Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios. Unless noted, these are from the last five NBA seasons.
NBA Team Strength Betting System #1:In games between two teams with 60%+ winning percentages, home teams favored in the -4.5 to -9.5 range are on a 186-68 SU and 148-105-1 ATS (58.5%) run.
System Match (PLAY): DENVER (-6.5 vs HOU)
NBA Team Strength Betting System #7:Double-digit NBA games have produced some definitive results on totals over the last five seasons, depending on the type of matchup. In divisional games featuring double-digit lines, Under the total has gone 137-111 (55.2%). In non-conference games, Over the total was 253-212 (54.4%). And finally, in non-divisional conference games, Over the total was 345-274 (55.7%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – NYK-UTA (spread +14.5, total 229.5), CHA-SAC (spread +12.5, total 224.5)
NBA Extreme Stats Next Game Systems
These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NBA games and detail the results of the follow-up game for the teams. These systems are from the last five seasons unless noted.
Close wins haven’t provided for momentum going forward
NBA teams that won as favorites by a close margin (1-3 points) have gone 308-171 SU but just 200-266-13 ATS (42.9%) in the next contest when favored again.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 at SAC)
Rout wins are a warning sign for the next contest for the hosts
NBA home teams coming off any game in which they beat the point spread by 20-points or more are 341-263 SU but 275-314-15 ATS (46.6%) over the last seven seasons.
System Match (FADE ATS): ORLANDO (+3.5 vs CLE)
Upset wins over conference opponents lead to next game stumbles versus non-conference opponents
NBA teams coming off an upset win over an intra-conference foe have had problems when facing a non-conference opponent in the next game, going just 176-219 SU and 171-220-4 ATS (43.7%) since late-January 2021.
System Match (FADE): UTAH (+14.5 vs NYK)
Unusual shooting performance systems
NBA teams off a game in which they were granted 35 or more free throw attempts trended Under the total the next game, 395-342 (53.6%) since 2021.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CLE-ORL (o/u at 225.5), TOR-NOP (o/u at 234.5)
Massive rebounding differentials
NBA teams that had a -15 or worse rebounding differential have struggled to tighten up in a back-to-back situation, going Over the total at a 109-74 (59.6%) rate since 2021, including 54-31 (63.5%) to the Over in the last 85.
System Match (PLAY OVER): TOR-NOP (o/u at 234.5)
Winning but not covering has been a problem
Teams that won their previous game but didn’t cover the spread have been bad in their zero rest follow-up game recently, going 60-71 SU and 46-83-2 ATS (35.7%) since the start of the 2022-23 season.
System Match (FADE): CHARLOTTE (-12.5 at SAC)
NBA Streak Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams on winning or losing streaks of at least four games in the NBA.
NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY
Strategies Using NBA DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website on opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 14 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until tip-off for best usage.
To summarize the findings from the first half data of the 2025-26 season, the sample contained 633 games, and for the most part, majority bettors have lost on all six point spread, money line, and total categories. In fact, this has been the worst half-season they have endured since I started studying this subject a few years ago. Here are the results:
– Majority handle on point spreads: 291-335 ATS (46.5%), -77.5 units – ROI: -12.4%
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 287-323 ATS (47%), -68.3 units – ROI: -11.2%
– Majority handle on money lines: 379-247 (60.5%). -123.2 units – ROI: -20.2%
– Majority number of bets on money lines: 404-227 (64%). -113.7 units – ROI: -18%
– Majority handle on totals: 306-310 (49.7%). -35 units – ROI: -5.7%
– Majority number of bets on totals: 307-318 (49.1%), -42.8 units – ROI: -6.8%
DK NBA Betting Splits system #1: When 63% or more of the handle was on the side of a home team playing as a 4-point favorite or less (or as an underdog) on ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 211-174 ATS (54.8%) over the last 3+ seasons, good for +19.6 units of profit and an ROI of 5.1%. This is a fairly profitable system that the public seems to get right consistently. If you see nearly 2/3 of the handle backing a host in an expected competitive NBA game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #2: When 59% or more of the handle has been on the ROAD side of an ATS wager, this “super” majority group has gone 868-785 ATS (52.5%) over the last 3+ seasons. This has produced a profit of +4.5 units and an ROI of 0.3%. This has been a VERY consistent system since I first found it, and for its simplicity, fairly successful. However, it is down over 20 units so far in ’25-26 so perhaps tread lightly. Even still, remember that handle is the total amount of money on a game and is generally considered sharper. When a good portion of the overall money is on a road team in the NBA, it wins more often than not.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, TORONTO, NEW YORK, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #4: In another somewhat rare situation, when there was a majority handle backing the team with fewer wins on the season in the NBA over the last 3+ seasons, that group produced a 456-412 ATS record (52.5%), good for +2.8 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%. This is another system that has dropped a bit this season but has still outperformed the normal levels by a decent amount. We’ll see if it can stay positive in the second half of the season.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): DENVER, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #6: In NBA non-Conference games (East versus West) of the last 3+ seasons, DK super majority handle groups of 62% or greater have been mildly successful, as they are 461-417 ATS (52.5%). If you consider that the overall majority numbers showed just over a 50% success rate, they were about 2.5% improved on these more-rare contests. This simple angle has produced +2.3 units of profit and an ROI of 0.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO, NEW YORK, CHARLOTTE
DK NBA Betting Splits system #7: The number 63% or higher has been a key super-majority number in non-divisional conference games over the last 3+ seasons, with handle groups of that size boasting a 579-508 ATS record, good for 54.2%. This is over a 4% improvement on the overall majority figures and has netted +20.2 units of profit and an ROI of 1.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND, DENVER, LA CLIPPERS
DK NBA Betting Splits system #9: There has been a massive disparity of success levels for majority groups on handle when they back the home or road team on money line wagers. On home teams, these majorities have gone 1454-663 over the last 3+ seasons but for -277.83 units and an ROI of -13.1%. On road teams, these majorities have gone 1,113-757 but for -72.73 units and an ROI of -3.9%. This 9.2% disparity warrants outright fading ML majorities on home teams until something definitively changes.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DENVER ML, LA CLIPPERS ML
DK NBA Betting Splits system #12: There has been some decent success for number of bets majorities when they don’t get too heavily invested. In fact, majorities on either side of the total (Over or Under) of 57% or less have gone 409-367 (52.7%) for +5.3 units and an ROI of +0.7% since January 2023.
System Match (PLAY): OVER – TOR-NOP
Today’s NBA Strength Ratings
The following NBA betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NBA tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+2.4)
2. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+1.4)
3. ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.2)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.1)
2. LA CLIPPERS -1.5 (+0.3)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+2.4)
2. ORLANDO +3.5 (+1.9)
3. SACRAMENTO +12.5 (+1.8)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Match: NEW YORK -14.5 (+2.3)
Today’s Top 3 TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. HOU-DEN OVER 231.5 (+1.6)
2(tie). CLE-ORL OVER 225.5 (+0.5)
NYK-UTA OVER 230.5 (+0.5)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. CHA-SAC UNDER 224.5 (-1.6)
2. MIN-LAC UNDER 227.5 (-0.6)
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:Ratings Matches: 1. NEW ORLEANS +2.5 (+3.6)
2. MINNESOTA +1.5 (+1.5)
Today’s Top 3 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NEW YORK -14.5 (+4.8)
2. CLEVELAND -3.5 (+2.4)
3. CHARLOTTE -12.5 (+0.7)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CLE-ORL OVER 225.5 (+1.4)
TOR-NOP OVER 234.5 (+1.4)
Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. MIN-LAC UNDER 227.5 (-3.6)
2. NYK-UTA UNDER 230.5 (-1.4)
3. HOU-DEN UNDER 231.5 (-0.3)
The post Steve Makinen’s NBA Betting Trends and Best Bets for Wednesday, March 11 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment