Super Bowl Prop Bets

Exceptional Props: Built on History, Paid in Units

Back in 2019, for Super Bowl LIII, I took a deep dive into the historical outcomes of general Yes/No props for every Super Bowl dating back to 2002. Beyond compiling win-loss records for more than 150 props at the time, I also introduced a metric I decided to call the exceptional rating. Clever name, right?

Hey, I mostly handle publication layout and design for VSiN – so once a year, when I step out of my dark corner to do a little research and writing, you get to see how well graphics translate into vocabulary… or how well they don’t (perhaps like the measurement’s name).

Fast-forward to Super Bowl LX, and it’s time once again for my favorite, your favorite, everyone’s favorite: Matty’s 8th Annual List of Exceptional Props.

In short, the exceptional rating is a way to quantify the value of a prop’s betting line – and, by extension, the potential advantage a bettor may have. How is it calculated? I’ll get to that in a moment.

After reviewing nearly 300 props for Super Bowl LIX in last season’s article – 15 of which earned an exceptional rating – I finished with a 9-6 record, up 0.4 units, and enough profit to buy a nice ham sandwich down the street. Through seven seasons, my overall record now stands at 64-38 (62.7%, +9.55 units).

Endure. Improve. Advance.

I’m hopeful the exceptional rating produces a few more shekels for Super Bowl LX. Here’s how it works.

How to Calculate Exceptional Rating

Step 1: Using an odds converter, determine the implied odds of a prop based on how often the outcome has historically been correct (or incorrect).

Step 2: Compare those implied odds to the sportsbook’s listed odds and calculate the difference.

Here is an example:

The team that scores last has won the Super Bowl in 21 of the last 24 games – 87.5% of the time. That translates to implied odds of -700, meaning I’d expect to lay seven units to win one. But when I reach the sportsbook, I see the line is just -200. Now I’m only laying two units to win one – saving five units compared to expectation.

To determine the exceptional rating, subtract the sportsbook odds from the implied odds:

-700 – (-200) = 500

That difference of 500 becomes the prop’s exceptional rating.

Setting the Baseline

In addition to calculating an exceptional rating for every prop, I also establish a minimum rating – essentially a baseline – to determine which props are worthy of a wager. Over the years, that threshold has ranged from 400 to 600. This year, my minimum exceptional rating is 500.

The purpose is simple: discipline. Setting a minimum prevents me from betting every prop on the board.

A Few Things to Keep in Mind

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  • Most of these props are available at multiple sportsbooks. Take your time, shop around and find the best number. Lines referenced in this article may have changed since publication.
  • Some books phrase props differently, even though the outcome is effectively the same. For example:
    • “What will be the first offensive play of the second half?” Pass (-110) or Run (-110)
      vs
    • “Will the first play of the second half be a pass?” Yes (-110) or No (-110)
  • Should you bet props below the 500 minimum? That’s entirely up to you. The exceptional rating is just one tool in your betting arsenal. Team tendencies, matchup context and insights from VSiN personalities and experts all matter. Plenty of strong bets will fall below my personal cutoff.
  • Some props with exceptional ratings above 500 will come with very steep prices (e.g., -1800). Consider these selectively and always within the confines of your bankroll.

My Bets

This year, I’ve identified 12 props with an exceptional rating of 500 or greater. My maximum exposure on a single prop is 10 units. Those selections are listed below and remember, tracking goes back to 2002.

 Prop (1u = 1 unit, 4u = 4 units, etc) My Wager Is On Historical Yes Historical No Implied Wager Odds Actual Odds I’m Betting Exceptional
Rating		 Book
Will the game be decided by exactly 11 points? Yes, 1u 2, 8.3% 22, 91.7% +1100 +3000 1900 Westgate
Will there be an offensive touchdown scored on 4th down? No, 4u 1, 4.2% 23, 95.8% -2298 -400 1898 DraftKings
Will both teams attempt a 2-point conversion? No, 8u 1, 4.2% 23, 95.8% -2298 -800 1498 Circa
Will any quarterback throw for 400+ yards? Yes, 1u 2, 8.3% 22, 91.7% +1100 +2500 1400 FanDuel
Will any player have a 60+ yard run? No, 10u 1, 4.2% 23, 95.8% -2298 -1000 1298 Circa
Will the game be decided by exactly 4 points? Yes, 1u 3, 12.5% 21, 87.5% +700 +1600 900 Westgate
Will there be a kickoff returned for a touchdown? Yes, 1u 3, 12.5% 21, 87.5% +700 +1600 900 Circa
Will the final play result in a score (kickoff not included)? Yes, 1u 7, 29.2% 17, 90.8% +243 +1060 817 FanDuel
Will there be a successful onside kick? Yes, 1u 1, 4.2% 23, 95.8% +2298 +3000 702 FanDuel
Will the team that scores last win the game? Yes, 2u 21, 87.5% 3, 12.5% -700 -200 500 FanDuel
Will there be a safety? Yes, 1u 4, 16.7% 20, 83.3% +500 +1000 500 FanDuel
Will there be a score in the first 3:30 of the game? No, 6u 2, 8.3% 22, 91.7% -1100 -600 500 Westgate
12 TOTAL WAGERS RISKING 37u            

The Spreadsheet

Beyond the bets themselves, perhaps the most valuable tool in this article is the spreadsheet compiling results from 275 props across the last 24 Super Bowls, along with a breakdown of “square” results by quarter.

Several props – labeled “Infinite” – have never been beaten in one direction or the other. I’ll continue adding to the spreadsheet throughout the week, so be sure to check back.

A Trend Worth Noting

Last year, I noticed a shift in the types of props qualifying for strong exceptional ratings. This year, that trend became even more apparent: implied odds and exceptional ratings are converging.

In plain terms, props with exceptional ratings north of 400–500 are increasingly either:

a) very expensive, or

b) long shots.

The days of finding massive exceptional ratings attached to modest -110 or -200 prices are largely gone. As this convergence continues, my plan for Super Bowl LXI is to generate exceptional-rating lists using 25-year, 15-year and 10-year data windows.

Best of luck with all your Super Bowl wagers.

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