Game: Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots

Date: February 8th at 6:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

The day has finally arrived, as we prepare to crown the Super Bowl champion. While both of these teams have won Super Bowls in the past, they look vastly different from the versions that last hoisted the Lombardi Trophy. Seattle is making its first Super Bowl appearance since 2015, when they suffered a gut-wrenching loss to New England. This season, with a new core in place, they’ll look to finish what that 2015 team could not.

Seattle has been a dominant team all year, posting a 14–3 overall record and securing the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Offensively, they rank 7th in yards per game (350) and 2nd in points per game (29.2). Defensively, they’ve been just as impressive, allowing only 293.2 yards per game (7th in the NFL) while surrendering the fewest points per game in the league at 17.1.

New England is appearing in its first Super Bowl since the Bill Belichick–Tom Brady era, and under head coach Mike Vrabel, this Patriots team has proven to be extremely difficult to beat. Offensively, New England has been sharp, ranking 6th in yards per game (364.2) and 8th in points per game (27.2). Vrabel has also reshaped the defense, which ranks 2nd in both yards allowed per game (282.4) and points allowed per game (17.3). Will these two high-powered offenses break through elite defenses, or will the defenses dictate the pace and turn this matchup into a slugfest?

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

The weather for this contest is shaping up to be ideal, with temperatures in the mid-60s at kickoff before dipping into the low-60s as the game progresses. There is a 0% chance of precipitation throughout the game, and wind should not be a major factor, averaging around 10 mph with gusts up to 13 mph.  

Betting Overview

This line moved quickly once the Super Bowl matchup was finalized, though movement has been relatively modest since. Seattle opened as 3.5-point favorites and has ticked up slightly to 4.5. The moneyline has followed a similar pattern, with Seattle moving to -235 (from -205), while New England has shifted to +205 (from +170). The total has dipped slightly as well, moving from an opening number of 46.5 down to 45 or 45.5 depending on the sportsbook.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: We have a fascinating coaching matchup in this game. Both head coaches are relatively new in their current roles, and each brings significant value to his team. On one side, you have Mike Macdonald, who has established himself as one of the league’s premier defensive schemers. On the other, Mike Vrabel has proven over the years that he can guide his teams deep into the postseason. Not to mention, Vrabel understands what it takes to succeed on this stage from his own playing career. New England also benefits from the experience of offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, who has served as the Patriots’ OC for multiple Super Bowl appearances. For those reasons, I’d give a slight edge to New England in the coaching department.

OLs vs. DLs: Up front, neither team truly jumps off the page. New England holds the advantage along the offensive line, while Seattle’s defensive line has been more effective over the course of the season and into the playoffs. With that said, the overall edge in the trenches slightly favors Seattle, though this should be a very close and competitive matchup.

QBs: It’s always intriguing to break down the quarterback matchup, especially with two players making their first Super Bowl appearances. Seattle counters with Sam Darnold, who has played his role effectively all season and put together an impressive campaign. New England, meanwhile, features second-year quarterback Drake Maye, who was in the MVP conversation for much of the year. Maye doesn’t have the same level of surrounding talent as many quarterbacks across the league, which makes his production all the more impressive. While Darnold may have more experience, I prefer the overall skill set that Maye brings to the table.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Seattle could have a difficult time establishing the run against New England’s linebacker corps, which ranks 7th in success rate and has allowed just 71.3 rushing yards per game throughout the playoffs. New England also has the advantage of deploying two dynamic backfield threats in Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, something Seattle lacks without Zach Charbonnet. At tight end, AJ Barner provides more value as a run blocker, while Hunter Henry offers more as a receiving threat. Overall, this matchup leans in favor of New England.

WRs vs. Secondaries: On the perimeter, Seattle holds a clear advantage. The Seahawks feature a combination of speed and elite route running at wide receiver. Their secondary is also fast and capable of playing a physical style. While Christian Gonzalez has been excellent for New England all season, he can only match up with one receiver at a time.

Betting Trends

Seattle enters Super Bowl 60 with a strong 14-5 ATS record, along with a 12-4 mark as a favorite, a 3-2 record against AFC opponents, and a 2-0 record in the playoffs. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 11 of 19 games. In games as a favorite, the over has hit in 10 of 16, as well as 3 of 5 against AFC opponents. Both of Seattle’s playoff games have also seen the over cash.

New England comes in at 13-6-1 ATS on the season, with a 4-2 record as an underdog, a 4-1 mark against NFC opponents, and a 2-1 record in the playoffs. Overs have been prevalent in Patriots games as well, hitting in 12 of 20 contests. As an underdog, the over has hit in 4 of 6 games, along with 4 of 5 against non-conference opponents. However, in the playoffs, the under has hit in 2 of the 3 games.

Final Thoughts

The entire NFL season comes down to this final matchup, and it should be a highly competitive contest between two defensive-minded coaches. Unlike last year’s Super Bowl, this game feels like one that will come down to the wire, which leads me to New England covering the spread. The total is a bit trickier given the strength of both defenses, but considering how low it currently sits, I’d lean toward the over.