The 2024-2025 NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers will open their season in a divisional matchup on the road against the Atlanta Falcons. Both franchises enter with plenty of optimism, the Bucs riding last year’s success, and the Falcons banking on their promising talent. As with many division rivals, this all-time series is tight, with Atlanta holding the slight edge at 32 wins to Tampa’s 31, including both meetings last season. There wasn’t a clear dominant team in the NFC South during the regular season, as Tampa finished 10-7, while Atlanta took the 2 slot at 8-9. Even with the Falcons winning the last two matchups and playing at home, the Bucs are favored between -2.5 and -1.5 depending on the book, opening at -2.5 at most spots. The moneyline has also shifted, opening with Atlanta at +120 and Tampa at -142, and moving to Atlanta between +114 and +106 and Tampa between -135 and -130. The over/under has dropped slightly, opening at 47.5 at most books, with some holding at that number, and others moving between 47 and 46.5.

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Weather

Being that this game is being played in Atlanta in Mercedes Benz Stadium, the weather will have no impact on this one.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: From a head coaching standpoint, the edge goes to Todd Bowles, as he has been with the Buccaneers organization for a long time and has consistently fielded a strong defense throughout his tenure, from defensive coordinator to head coach. From an offensive coaching perspective, the case can be made either way. Falcons’ Zac Robinson has had a full season to establish his scheme, while Josh Grizzard will be making his first appearance as OC, though he worked under Liam Coen last season.

DL’s vs OL’s: The Bucs and Falcons are fairly similar in terms of potential on both the DL and OL. Both teams boast strong offensive lines but have some question marks on the defensive front. I would give the edge to Atlanta here, as the Bucs will be without star offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs, and likely nose tackle Vita Vea, who won’t be anywhere close to 100% if he does suit up.

QB’s: It’s tough to make a case for Michael Penix Jr. in this matchup, as Baker Mayfield is coming off his best season in the NFL, while Penix Jr. will be making his first career start. This could certainly change before the next meeting between these two teams, but for now, with Mayfield’s experience and momentum heading into the season, the edge is pretty clear.

RB’s & TE’s vs LB’s: Overall, in the RB + TE vs LB matchup, Atlanta gets the edge. Bijan Robinson is a more complete back compared to Bucky Irving, and neither tight end has shown much consistency. In the linebacker group, Atlanta is just slightly stronger overall.

WR’s & Secondaries: The secondary units are very similar between these two teams, as neither has players who truly jump off the page. While Tampa’s wide receiver group is on the older side, I prefer their depth compared to Atlanta’s. That said, Drake London is capable of being a difference-maker any given week.

Last 10 ATS & Over/Under Results

In the last 10 matchups between these two franchises, the Falcons have edged the Buccaneers, covering 6 of those games. The over has also been prominent in this stretch, hitting 7 of the last 10, with the average over/under set at 46.1 in those contests.

Final Thoughts

It will be exciting to get an early-season NFC South showdown. From a betting standpoint, the majority of public action has been on the Falcons spread at 58%, with 88% of bets on the under. The absence of Tristan Wirfs is very concerning for the Bucs, as elite offensive tackles often dictate how a game unfolds. If backup left tackle Charlie Heck struggles, it could turn into a long day for Tampa Bay.