The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing, as the women are playing a 1000-level event in Dubai and the men are competing in 500-level tournaments in Doha and Rio de Janeiro — and the field in the Delray Beach 250 also happens to be loaded. With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page on Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, February 19.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Clara Tauson vs. Jessica Pegula – Dubai
Alexandra Eala vs. Coco Gauff – Dubai
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Pegula was able to handle her business against Iva Jovic last match. Unfortunately, Sorana Cirstea wasn’t able to do the same against Eala. That resulted in a losing two-leg parlay on Wednesday. Well, I’m going back to a two-leg parlay in which I’m backing Pegula and fading Eala, so hopefully we don’t suffer the same fate on Thursday.
With Pegula, the numbers continue to suggest she’s playing some of the best tennis of her life. While the sample size is small, her 10-2 record gives her the highest winning percentage (83.3%) of her career. Well, with her playing some fantastic tennis, why not back her to beat Tauson? Tauson is a player we backed rather often in 2024 and 2025, but she’s just 7-5 since the start of 2026. Also, when looking at Elo Rating, Pegula’s 2026 number of 1972.9 puts her sixth on the WTA Tour. Meanwhile, Tauson is down at 77th in the world in Elo, with a number of 1678.6. Overall, I just don’t think Tauson’s movement is good enough for her to hang with Pegula in longer rallies, and she’s not serving or striking the ball well enough to power through her right now.
As far as Eala goes, it’s hard to see her beating Gauff. It’s abundantly clear that Eala is going to have the crowd wherever she plays, which is going to be hard for Gauff to deal with. Gauff also continues to struggle with her serve. However, Gauff should regularly have chances to break the mediocre Eala serve, and the baseline rallies should favor the American. Gauff’s speed and athleticism still give her a shot in any match, and I think it’ll take a more powerful player than Eala to bounce her.
Also, if you’re not as confident in Gauff as I am, you can always go Eala at plus-money odds if Pegula wins the first match.
PARLAY: Pegula ML & Gauff ML (-128 – 1.5 units)
Jaime Faria vs. Damir Dzumhur – Rio De Janeiro
Dzumhur didn’t look 100% in his win over Pedro Martinez last match, but he was able to gut out a victory. Well, let’s see if he can do it again when he takes on Faria.
Faria shouldn’t even be in this field, as he lost in qualifiers. However, he was given the opportunity to compete in the main draw, and he earned a dominant 7-5, 6-1 win over Sebastian Baez in the opening round. Now, Faria is going to like his chances against Dzumhur. Tactically, there’s a lot that Faria can do to bother Dzumhur.
While Dzumhur wants to counterpunch and extend rallies, it’s going to be hard for him to do that if his legs aren’t there. Faria is going to test the legs, as he has a pretty good drop shot. Faria is also more capable than Martinez when it comes to playing first-strike tennis, as he has a big, heavy forehand, and he also has a top-notch down-the-line backhand. All of that should mean that he’ll be able to win some rallies quickly, making it hard on Dzumhur to grind out this win.
I’ll also add that Faria is far more likely to win quick points on his serve. That said, it’s just going to take a lot more for Dzumhur to win this match.
Bet: Faria ML (-152 – 1.5 units)
Jakub Mensik vs. Jannik Sinner – Doha
Sinner really should be able to defeat Mensik, but I’m having a really hard time passing on the Czech to cover a 5.5-game spread. Mensik is already one of the most dangerous servers on the planet, and he possesses a rock-solid baseline game too. While a lot of people expect him to be more of a servebot, running through service games and then playing a high-risk, high-reward baseline game, that’s really not the reality. He’s an elite server and can rack up holds in a hurry, but he’s more of a grinder from the back of the court. That’s why he has always reminded me a little more of Alexander Zverev and Taylor Fritz than some of the more aggressive guys on the tour with size.
I expect Mensik to be under pressure a decent amount in this match, as Sinner is an elite returner and the conditions in Doha are a little slower — which helped him easily dispatch Alexei Popyrin last round. However, if this ends up being a straight-set win from Sinner, all we need is seven games from Mensik in order to win this. That makes this worthy of a stab. He can win enough service games to help us cash this — and I wouldn’t be stunned if he wins a set.
Bet: Mensik +5.5 Games (-125)
Ignacio Buse vs. Joao Fonseca – Rio De Janeiro
Dusan Lajovic vs. Matteo Berrettini – Rio De Janeiro
After opening-round losses in Melbourne and Buenos Aires, Fonseca badly needed a straightforward win to kick things off in Rio. Well, he got exactly that in a 7-6 (1), 6-1 victory over Thiago Monteiro. Of course, things weren’t easy in the opening set, but Fonseca settled in and hit Monteiro off the court in the second. His Performance Rating in Set 2 was 8.56 at TennisViz, which is an awesome number. He also was fantastic when looking Conversion (on attacks) and Steal Score, and his forehand hit 9.6 when looking at Shot Quality in that set.
While a lot of people want to pile on Fonseca for a slow start to the year, he just hasn’t been healthy. That has prevented him from playing matches. Well, now that he has a few under his belt, he should start to rattle off some wins. And I’d be surprised if he can’t beat Buse, as he’s a better server, and he has the more dangerous strokes from the baseline. He also has the crowd in his corner.
Berrettini is the one I’m trusting to get a better price with Fonseca, backing him to take out Lajovic as the second leg of a two-legger. This surface is great for Berrettini, as he has a little more time to play from his weaker backhand wing — or just run around it and blast forehands. His serve is also good enough for him to pick up cheap points on any surface, so all the slower court speed does is help him return a little easier. And this opponent really should be one that Berrettini can handle, as Lajovic’s serve isn’t all that reliable. I’m also not sure the Serbian can handle Berrettini’s power at this stage in his career. I also wonder if Lajovic’s legs will already be wobbly, as he played two three-setters in qualifying, then he played a physical two-set match against Altmaier.
PARLAY: Fonseca ML & Berrettini ML (-130 – 1.5 units)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
The post Tennis Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Thursday, February 19 appeared first on VSiN.
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