Tennis Best Bets: Picks and predictions for Thursday, February 26

The ATP and WTA Tours are currently in full swing. We’re just a week away from the start of the 2026 BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, which is considered the “fifth Slam.” However, there’s still some high-leverage tennis to be played before that, as the men are playing 500-level events in Dubai and Acapulco — while others are playing in Santiago (250). Meanwhile, the women are in either Merida (500) or Austin (250). With that in mind, we have a lot to cover over the next couple of days. I’ll be writing up my tennis best bets from Monday to Friday, then I’ll post my championship picks on the VSiN Pro Picks page for Sunday. That said, keep reading for my tennis best bets for Thursday, February 26.

NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.

Jenson Brooksby vs. Daniil Medvedev – Dubai
Tallon Griekspoor vs. Jakub Mensik – Dubai

Brooksby is having a nice run in Dubai, but I think it ends here. Over the last 52 weeks, in non-Slam matches, Medvedev’s 8.17 Performance Rating at TennisViz is just way higher than Brooksby’s 7.12. Medvedev has also been better at pretty much everything when looking at individual skills. He’s better In Attack (24% vs. 22%), converting on the same percentage (68%) as Brooksby but playing offense a little more. He’s also better at stealing points (37% vs. 36%), meaning he’s a little better as a defender. On top of that, Medvedev has a higher Shot Quality when looking at serve (8.1 vs. 7.2), return (7.6 vs. 6.3), forehand (7.7 vs. 6.9), and backhand (7.9 vs. 7.2). There just isn’t much that Brooksby will be able to hang his hat on here. The American is a tough competitor, plus he has variety that can make him a tricky opponent. However, Medvedev is an elite problem-solver. He should be able to find a way through, as this is a match in which he’s not at a disadvantage when looking at weapons. That’s a rarity for him at this stage in a tournament these days.

As far as the other match goes, it’s hard to ignore the form that Griekspoor has found lately. After looking lifeless for most of the season, Griekspoor has now won at least two matches in back-to-back events, and his win over Alexander Bublik was very impressive last round. However, Mensik has found another gear since last season. The Czech star is 13-5 since the start of the 2026 season, and he picked up a win over Jannik Sinner last week. Mensik is serving at a high level, his backhand is as dangerous of a shot as always, and he’s still playing his usual brand of solid defense. Mensik’s Forehand Quality is also higher in 2026 (7.5) than it was in 2025 (6.8). He’s just starting to sharpen every part of his game, and I believe his returning and baseline solidity will be advantages over Griekspoor that the Dutchman will struggle to overcome.

PARLAY: Medvedev ML & Mensik ML (-133 – 1.5 units)

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Added Plays

I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.