It might feel like the US Open marks the end of tennis season, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. We still have a few 1000-level events left — plus the ATP and WTA Finals — and one of them is taking place in Shanghai right now. That’s right, the Rolex Shanghai Masters is under way from Qizhong Forest Sports City Arena. This hard-court tournament has a strong field, and we’re going to be doing our best to cover it. With that in mind, keep reading for some Day 4 Shanghai tennis best bets, focusing on the action on Friday, October 3 and Saturday, October 4.
NOTE: Gill Alexander, host of A Numbers Game, posts a bunch of tennis plays to the VSiN picks page. He does a great job handicapping tennis. That page is also where I post all of my Challenger-level picks + plays for all of the tournaments I’m not writing up daily.
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Felix Auger Aliassime
Embed from Getty ImagesAuger Aliassime looks like a popular pick to make a deep run at this tournament, and he does find himself in the right part of the draw. However, this early matchup with Tabilo could pose some problems. Since getting eliminated by Alexander Zverev at the US Open, Tabilo is 14-2 on hard courts. Some of those wins came at the Challenger level, but winning is winning. And that stretch also happened to include victories over Jordan Thompson, Brandon Nakashima, and Lorenzo Musetti. Tabilo’s straight-set win over Marcos Giron the other day was also impressive.
Tabilo is just firing on all cylinders. He’s blasting his serve, staying accurate with it, and following it up with powerful groundstrokes to put points away. He’s also in a nice rhythm of just finding ways to win extended rallies.
Of course, Auger Aliassime is a dangerous hard-court player. We saw him do some incredible things at the US Open, eliminating Zverev, Andrey Rublev, and Alex de Minaur before pushing Jannik Sinner in the semifinals. However, we also haven’t seen Auger Aliassime since then. If he’s not fully in form and playing his very best tennis, I’m not sure he should be given a 62% chance of beating this red-hot version of Tabilo.
Bet: Tabilo ML (+160)
Christopher O’Connell vs. Denis Shapovalov
I had O’Connell to defeat Damir Dzumhur the other day, and I noted that the Australian is clearly comfortable playing the Asian Swing. He has turned in some great results in this part of the ATP calendar, and I don’t see any reason he can’t give Shapovalov a match.
We just saw Shapovalov lose a match to Daniel Altmaier in Tokyo. Oddly enough, that’s another average player with a one-handed backhand. The backhand aesthetics aren’t really important here, but the fact that Shapovalov has lost four of his last six matches definitely leaves an impression. The Canadian’s serve has also abandoned him a bit, and his double-faults are starting to creep back up.
Shapovalov is still a player with all kinds of shot-making talent, but he also gives his opponents a lot of chances. Well, O’Connell is an opportunistic player, and I can see him enjoying this type of match.
Of course, Shapovalov did beat O’Connell on indoor hard courts in Belgrade last year. That’ll lead to a lot of public bets on the Canadian. But these conditions are different. Playing outside means more elements that could get to Shapovalov when he’s serving. The heat and humidity could also bring Shapovalov down, but we know O’Connell will show up ready to fight.
Bet: O’Connell +1.5 Sets (-125 – 1.5 units) & O’Connell ML (+210 – 0.5 units)
Bu Yunchaokete vs. Luciano Darderi
This is a good matchup for Bu. Darderi is at his best on clay courts, where his heavy forehand jumps off the court. Slower clay conditions also give the Italian more time to set his feet, which he needs. When he’s rushed, he can come unglued — especially on the backhand wing. Well, Bu is a player that should be able to bring out the worst in him. These courts play pretty damn fast, and Bu tends to take the ball on the rise and hit flat, powerful groundstrokes. That should prevent Darderi from getting comfortable.
As long as Bu just has a decent day as a server, he should be able to dictate how points are played in this one. And I like Bu to find his best stuff here. Bu is playing in his home Masters, so the motivation will be there. While that could also mean some serious pressure, he has had success in China before. Bu beat Rublev in straight sets in Beijing in 2024, booking a spot in the semifinals at that event. And that came right after a semi-final run in Hangzhou.
This just feels like a match that Bu should win. And this is a spot in which the sportsbooks will likely be rooting for him. They’re begging for action on Darderi by hanging a plus-money number on him. He’s ranked nearly 90 spots better than Bu.
Bet: Yunchaokete ML (-125)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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