The 2026 BNP Paribas Open is in full swing at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden, and Friday, March 13 brings another loaded slate of ATP and WTA action from Tennis Paradise. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks for Indian Wells, digging into matchup tactics, court conditions, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 BNP Paribas Open best bets are built to help you profit all the way through the men’s final on Sunday, March 15. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
BNP Paribas Open best bets for Friday, March 13
Aryna Sabalenka vs. Linda Noskova
Embed from Getty ImagesIn looking at our VSiN betting splits page, DraftKings opened with Sabalenka -391 and Noskova +307. However, money seemingly poured in on the Belarusian, pushing her out to a -720 favorite. Well, that’s outrageous to me. I understand having confidence in Sabalenka here, but the opening numbers were far closer to where I have these two. That said, I think there’s crazy value in backing Noskova.
I’ll fully acknowledge that there’s a real chance Sabalenka runs away with this, as she’s a big-match player and Noskova hasn’t been on this type of stage very often. However, these prices just don’t sit right with me, triggering some pretty aggressive plays.
I just don’t think you can name many players that serve as well as Noskova does. In fact, her 2026 hold percentage of 80.9% is good for the fifth-highest mark on the WTA Tour. On top of that, Noskova’s 32.5% break percentage matches a career-high mark she set in 2023. She’s just playing some really good tennis this season, and her game is perfect for slower hard courts. Her serve is good enough — and accurate enough — for her to rack up holds through the slower conditions, and the extra time on the ball allows her a little more time to set her feet and rip shots from the baseline. It also makes her more dangerous as a returner.
As long as the moment doesn’t get too big for Noskova, I see this match being very similar to the one Sabalenka just played against Victoria Mboko. I think we’ll see some long, competitive sets, which means Noskova will have her chances. These two actually met one another in Adelaide in 2023, when Sabalenka earned a 6-3, 7-6 (4) win. That was well before Noskova was really a high-level WTA performer. Also, Sabalenka plays her best tennis in Australia.
Bet: Noskova +5.5 Games (-110 – 1.5 units), Noskova +1.5 Sets (+163 – 0.5 units), Noskova ML (+590 – 0.25 units)
Elena Rybakina vs. Elina Svitolina
I don’t exactly have anything for this specific matchup, but I like Rybakina to win. I just think it’s a different type of challenge trying to beat her on hard courts right now, and these conditions are interesting for her. Rybakina’s still the best server in the tournament, but giving her a little more time as a returner is just unfair. We really haven’t seen anyone challenge Rybakina since the opening round, but the 26-year-old has adjusted to her surroundings. Now, I genuinely believe she’s the player to beat. That’s why I’m taking her to win the tournament.
The reason I’m grabbing +180 is that Rybakina was around +140 the last time she faced Sabalenka, which was in the Australian Open final. However, now that she has earned back-to-back wins over the Belarusian, I imagine she’ll be closer to +120 or +125 in their next meeting. Well, that makes the +180 look pretty good. I know a moneyline rollover would theoretically pay out a little more, but I genuinely believe there’s a non-zero chance Noskova wins. So, I’d rather a grab a great price with Rybakina now.
Bet: Rybakina To Win Indian Wells (+180 – 1.5 units)
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
The post Tennis Best Bets Today: Indian Wells picks for Sabalenka vs. Noskova & Rybakina vs. Svitolina appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment