Game: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys

Date: November 27th at 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

With both the Kansas City Chiefs and the Dallas Cowboys stacking wins over the last few weeks, this matchup looks far more intriguing than it did not long ago. Each team appeared to be on the verge of letting the season slip away, but both have bounced back in a big way.

Kansas City is coming off its biggest win of the season, an overtime victory against the Indianapolis Colts, and now sits just above .500 at 6-5. The offense has taken a step forward this year, ranking 5th in yards per game (376) and 9th in points per game (25.2). Defensively, they’ve been even stronger, ranking 6th in yards allowed per game (293) and 4th in points allowed per game (18.3).

Dallas enters Thanksgiving at 5-5-1 after a thrilling comeback win against the Philadelphia Eagles. They boast one of the league’s best offenses, ranking 1st in yards per game (387.3) and 4th in points per game (29.1). The defense has shown improvement recently, but the overall numbers still lag behind—29th in yards allowed per game (377.5) and 31st in points allowed per game (28.5).

Both teams will be hungry to secure a win on Thanksgiving and carry that momentum into a late playoff push.

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Betting Overview

With how Dallas has played recently, the line has shifted from Kansas City -4.5 down to -3 to -3.5. The moneyline has tightened as well, with the best value on the Chiefs now at -175 (down from -198) and +155 for the Cowboys (previously +164). The total has seen the biggest change, jumping from the opening number of 47.5 up to 51.5–52.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: It’s hard to find many matchups in the NFL where the Chiefs don’t have the coaching edge, and this one fits that trend. The Cowboys staff still lacks the overall chemistry and cohesion Kansas City brings to the table.

DLs vs. OLs: We should see a fun battle in the trenches on Thursday. Both teams have strong offensive lines, while the defensive lines don’t quite measure up. Dallas does have a slight edge on the defensive line, giving them the overall advantage in this category.

QBs: Dak Prescott has put up some impressive numbers this season, but it’s tough when the quarterback across from you is Patrick Mahomes. Still, this should be an entertaining duel.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Javonte Williams has been very effective for Dallas, but Kansas City comes out ahead in the other position groups. The linebacker discrepancy is the biggest tipping point, as that’s where the Chiefs’ defense has been particularly strong.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Dallas clearly has the stronger receiving corps, while their secondary is slightly weaker than Kansas City’s. Even with the defensive concerns, the advantage on the outside leans toward the Cowboys.

Betting Trends

Kansas City enters this matchup with a 5-5-1 ATS record, including a 1-3 mark on the road (all as favorites) and a 3-1 record in non-conference play. Totals have heavily favored the under, which has hit in 8 of 11 games overall, 3 of 4 on the road, and all four non-conference games.

Dallas sits at 6-5 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home and a 2-0 mark as a home underdog. The Cowboys are also 2-1 in non-conference action. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 7 of 11 games overall, 3 of 5 at home, splitting in their two home-underdog spots, and cashing in all three non-conference matchups.

Final Thoughts

Dallas carries plenty of momentum into this matchup. Their weakness has been the defense, but that unit kept them in the game last week against Philadelphia. If the Cowboys can put together a solid offensive performance — which I think they can against Kansas City — they have a real chance to win outright. I’d still play it a bit more conservatively and take the +3.