Game: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens

Date: November 27th at 8:20 PM ET

Where to Watch: NBC

Rounding things out this Thanksgiving, we get a “Sunday Night Football” showdown between AFC North foes — the Cincinnati Bengals and the Baltimore Ravens. This matchup may not carry the same appeal as the earlier games, but Joe Burrow’s return still makes it a compelling watch. Cincinnati has struggled heavily without their star quarterback and enters on a four-game losing skid with a 3–8 record. Offensively, they’ve been underwhelming, ranking 23rd in yards per game (307.1) and 18th in points per game (22.5). Defensively, they’ve been the worst unit in the league, sitting 32nd in both yards allowed (415.8) and points allowed per game (32.7).

Baltimore, meanwhile, is 6–5 and has been finding ways to win despite still looking inconsistent. Their offense has been middle-of-the-pack, ranking 21st in yards per game (315.5) but 10th in scoring (25 PPG). Defensively, they’ve also had issues, ranking 24th in yards allowed (349.2) and 19th in points allowed (23.7). Thursday night serves as a make-or-break moment for the Bengals, and an opportunity for the Ravens to gain a slight edge on the Steelers in the divisional race.

Embed from Getty Images

Weather

It’s expected to be a brisk night in Baltimore on Thursday, with temperatures in the mid-30s. Precipitation shouldn’t be an issue, but the wind could play a role, with averages around 12 mph and gusts reaching up to 23 mph.

Betting Overview

When this betting market opened, Baltimore was a 5.5-point favorite, but the line has since moved to -7. Cincinnati’s moneyline has shifted from +185 to +295, while Baltimore has moved from -225 to -320. The total has also ticked up slightly, rising from 49.5 to either 51.5 or 52 depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Zac Taylor and Al Golden continue to struggle in building a competitive defensive scheme—hurt both by design and personnel. John Harbaugh, meanwhile, has kept Baltimore steady even through rough patches, guiding them back over .500. The Ravens have a clear coaching edge here.

DLs vs. OLs: Each team has issues in different areas. Baltimore’s offensive line has had its struggles, while Cincinnati’s defensive line has been one of the league’s weakest. The Bengals’ offensive line has improved compared to recent years, and the Ravens’ defensive line has been serviceable but not dominant. The battle in the trenches is relatively tight, but it leans slightly toward Cincinnati—even without Trey Hendrickson.

QBs: This should be a premier quarterback matchup between Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. The challenge is that Burrow is coming off injury and Jackson has been managing one most of the season. Given Jackson’s steady in-game reps and rhythm this year, he gets the slight edge.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: The Ravens hold a significant advantage in this area. They’re stronger across all position groups here, even with Derrick Henry underperforming a bit behind a weaker offensive line.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Cincinnati clearly has the superior wide receiver group—one of the best in the league. However, Baltimore holds a substantial advantage in the secondary, while Cincinnati’s secondary has been a major liability. Given that mismatch, the edge on the outside goes to the Ravens.

Betting Trends

Baltimore has taken 6 of the last 10 matchups against Cincinnati, covering in 6 of those games as well. The over has also been a strong trend, hitting in 8 of the last 10 meetings. In their two matchups last season, the Ravens won both, covered once, and the over hit in both games.

The Bengals enter this game 4–7 ATS on the year, with a 1–4 record on the road, a 1–3 mark as a road underdog, and a 1–2 record in divisional play. Overs have been the more favorable trend overall, hitting in 7 of 11 games. However, on the road the under has hit in 3 of 5, splits 2–2 as a road dog, and has hit in 2 of 3 division games.

The Ravens are also 4–7 ATS, with a 2–4 record at home, a 2–2 mark as a home favorite, and a 1–1 record in the division. Overs have similarly hit in 7 of 11 games, including 4 of 6 at home, 3 of 4 as a home favorite, and both divisional matchups.

Final Thoughts

Even with the stakes not quite as high this season, any Bengals–Ravens matchup is always a fun watch—especially with both star quarterbacks back in the mix. It’s tough to know which version of Joe Burrow we’ll get in his first game since Week 2, but given the divisional opponent, I think Cincinnati can keep this one competitive enough to cover. I also lean toward the over in this matchup.