The Players Championship Picks, Best Bets and Golf Odds

Akshay Bhatia (70-1 pre-tournament) at one point was five shots back of leader Daniel Berger, who was attempting to go wire-to-wire for his first victory since 2021. Berger had a four-stroke lead at the turn on Sunday, but Bhatia started his back nine by making four straight birdies to stay in the fight and nearly made an albatross on the par-5 16th. After Berger’s bogey at 17, both made par at 18 to extend the Arnold Palmer Invitational to a playoff, where Bhatia’s par was good enough after Berger pulled his tee shot.

Ludvig Åberg and Cameron Young tied for third and Collin Morikawa finished fifth.

This week, the PGA Tour’s primary “Signature event” takes place at The Players Championship just outside of Jacksonville, Fla.

Two-time (2023, 2024) Players champion Scottie Scheffler (4-1) leads the field on the odds board, but he comes into the week off his worst finish in over a calendar year, finishing T-24 at the Arnold Palmer.

Rory McIlroy (12-1), another two-time (2019, 2025) and defending Players champion, was a few strokes off the pace but inside the top 10 heading into the weekend. But he withdrew from the API, citing back spasms from his morning gym workout and then said it worsened on the range Saturday morning.

Morikawa, our nearest pursuer for an outright victory, is priced 24-1.

Xander Schauffele (25-1) is a two-time (2018, 2024) runner-up at The Players. He and Tommy Fleetwood (26-1) finished well down the board last weekend.

Åberg (28-1) and Young (33-1) contended at Bay Hill last weekend but could never get close enough to challenge the leaders.

Si Woo Kim (37-1) is a former Players winner (2017).

The mid-range on the board starts with Hideki Matsuyama (40-1), Russell Henley (40-1), Viktor Hovland (44-1), 2026 PGA Tour winners Chris Gotterup and Akshay Bhatia (both 45-1), Min Woo Lee (47-1), Jake Knapp (48-1), Matt Fitzpatrick, Patrick Cantlay and Robert MacIntyre (all at 50-1).

Other former Players champions in this week’s field include 2021 winner Justin Thomas (100-1), who is making just his second start of the season returning from back surgery, 2016 winner Jason Day (100-1), 2015 winner Rickie Fowler (50-1) and 2004 winner Adam Scott (66-1).

The Event

The Players Championship was conceived by then-PGA Tour Commissioner Deane Beman in 1974 when Jack Nicklaus won the inaugural event in 1974 at the Atlanta Country Club. The event eventually moved to Ponte Vedra Beach, Fla. (18 miles from downtown Jacksonville), and the Sawgrass Country Club in 1977 before moving in 1982 to the adjacent TPC Sawgrass Stadium Course, where it remains today. The Players offers the largest purse on the PGA Tour at $25 million and is considered the unofficial “fifth major” because of arguably having the best field all year. The winner receives 80 OWGR points, a five-year PGA Tour exemption and three years of exemptions to all four majors.

There have been only eight multiple winners of The Players: Jack Nicklaus (1974, 1976, 1978), Fred Couples (1984, 1996), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Davis Love III (1992, 2003), Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Scottie Scheffler (2023, 2024) and Rory McIlroy (2019, 2025). Outside of this list, 24 other major champions have won this event, including recent ones like Scottie Scheffler (2023), Cameron Smith (2022), Justin Thomas (2021), Webb Simpson (2018), Jason Day (2016), Martin Kaymer (2014), K.J. Choi (2011), Henrik Stenson (2009), Sergio Garcia (2008), Phil Mickelson (2007) and Adam Scott (2004).

Seven players have won The Players and a major championship in the same calendar year: Jack Nicklaus (1978, Open), Hal Sutton (1983, PGA), Tiger Woods (2001, Masters), Martin Kaymer (2014, U.S. Open), Cameron Smith (2022, Open), Scottie Scheffler (2024, Masters) and Rory McIlroy (2025, Masters).

The Field

There are 123 players in this week’s field at The Players Championship.

The top 65 and ties make it through the 36-hole cutline to play the weekend. The winner receives 750 FedExCup points and a $4.5 million first-place check from a $25 million purse.

The Course

The Stadium Course at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most iconic courses in the world of golf. Located in Ponte Vedra Beach on a Florida swamp, the property was purchased in 1978 by then-PGA Tour commissioner Deane Beman for the grand sum of $1.

The course was designed by the legendary late Pete Dye in 1979 (with a Steve Wenzloff and Pete Dye redesign in 2017) and it hosted its first Players in 1982. The two-month date change from May to March has had such a dramatic effect on how the course has been played that it does not make sense to take much of the pre-2019 results into account. With coastal winds gustier in March, scoring is more random, and the course plays longer thanks to the softer fairways.

The track is a par-72 of 7,352 yards. The layout features 94 Scottish-style bunkers (second most on tour), 16 water holes (most on tour), including the famous island green on the 17th and a variety of waste areas.

The course is unusual in that no consecutive holes play in the same direction and there are left and right doglegs throughout. The fairways (30.5 yards average width) and rough (grown out to four inches this year) are comprised of overseeded Ryegrass.

Tee shots on the angled fairways are well-designed and encourage golfers to hit toward the trouble for the least obstructed approach shots into the demanding greens. So, there is very much a risk/reward element here at TPC Sawgrass.

The 100% Poa Trivialis greens are 5,500 square feet on average and are fast (13 on the Stimpmeter). In the past, the greens have been Bermudagrass overseeded with Poa and Velvet Bentgrass. They still have a Bermuda base, but the Bentgrass is gone for an exclusive Poa overseed. These Poa greens run smoother and lack the bumps that players have already seen on West Coast courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach.

Three of the par-3s are under 185 yards, including the infamous 17th-hole island green and all average over par scores.

The par-4s are a mix of challenging risk/reward holes. Two of them play under 400 yards and three more are over 470 yards. Almost all of the par-4s are “S-shaped” as Dye wanted both the draw and fade to be in play. Nos. 14 and 18 are the toughest holes on the course.

The par-5s at TPC Sawgrass average only 554 yards. It is here where scoring becomes crucial, as three of them are reachable in two shots. Water is present on holes 9, 11, and 16, which requires players to find the fairway with the driver to have any chance of successfully going for the green.

Correlated courses to TPC Sawgrass include other Dye designs like TPC River Highlands, Harbour Town, PGA West Stadium, Kiawah Island, and Whistling Straits. Other courses on the Florida swing, such as Bay Hill, PGA National, Innisbrook, have had strong correlations in the past, as have TPC Southwind, Waialae, and Sedgefield.

Golf Digest provides a hole-by-hole video of TPC Sawgrass. This video was done five years ago, so there have been some changes since, but the layout largely remains the same.

Weather

The AccuWeather forecast shows windy and rainy conditions during the early rounds before predominantly clear conditions over the weekend.

The Players Championship Recent History/Winners

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2025: Rory McIlroy (-12/276); 11-1*

2024: Scottie Scheffler (-20/268); 11-2

2023: Scottie Scheffler (-17/271); 10-1

2022: Cameron Smith (-13/275); 30-1

2021: Justin Thomas (-14/274); 20-1

2020: Tournament canceled due to COVID-19

2019: Rory McIlroy (-16/272); 14-1

2018: Webb Simpson (-18/270); 100-1

2017: Si Woo Kim (-10/278); 500-1

2016: Jason Day (-15/273); 12-1

2015: Rickie Fowler (-12/276); 66-1**

2014: Martin Kaymer (-15/273); 90-1

2013: Tiger Woods (-13/275); 9-1

2012: Matt Kuchar (-13/275); 55-1

2011: K.J. Choi (-13/275); 45-1 ***

2010: Tim Clark (-16/272); 100-1

Playoff win over J.J. Spaun – *

Playoff win over Sergio Garcia and Kevin Kisner – **

Playoff win over David Toms – ***

The Players Championship Trends

Experience Matters

Only twice since 1983 has a player won The Players on his course debut (Hal Sutton — 1983, Craig Perks — 2002).
10 of the last 11 Players winners played in at least five previous Players Championships.
16 of the last 17 Players winners had a finish here of at least 23rd or better at TPC Sawgrass.

Incoming Form

27 of the last 27 Players winners made the cut in the previous start before their Players victories.
13 of the last 14 Players winners finished 22nd or better in the previous start before their victory.
14 of the last 16 Players winners had a top-5 finish in the calendar year before their victory.

Cream Rises to the Top

20 of the last 22 Players winners were rated 45th or better in the OWGR (Official World Golf Rankings).
10 of the last 12 Players winners were major champions.

Early Bird Gets the Worm

15 of the last 19 Players winners had a morning tee time during Thursday’s opening round (the last time a solo first-round leader had an afternoon tee time was in 2014).

Statistical Analysis

Iron play will determine the winner of The Players Championship as it always does. If you look at numbers over the past decade plus, you can see the importance of Strokes Gained: Approach:

2025: McIlroy +7.7 (5th) — Total SG: Approach (Ranking in that week’s field)

2024: Scheffler +6.4 (7th)

2023: Scheffler +7.6 (4th)

2022: Smith +6.7 (5th)

2021: Thomas +6.5 (5th)

2019: McIlroy +6.5 (6th)

2018: Simpson -0.7 (92nd) — ranked No. 1 in Strokes Gained: Putting that week

2017: Si Woo Kim +4.1 (16th)

2016: Day +5.6 (9th)

2015: Fowler +6.3 (3rd)

Strokes Gained: Approach — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Si Woo Kim 1.198
Austin Smotherman 1.170
Collin Morikawa 1.066
Rory McIlroy 0.974
Ryan Gerard 0.962
Justin Rose 0.930
Marty Dou 0.905
Daniel Berger 0.873
Thorbjørn Olesen 0.778
Viktor Hovland 0.725
Jacob Bridgeman 0.711
Sepp Straka 0.696
Brooks Koepka 0.693
Adam Scott 0.618
Nicolai Højgaard 0.605
Johnny Keefer 0.600
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.585
Kurt Kitayama 0.580
Akshay Bhatia 0.565
Shane Lowry 0.563
Hideki Matsuyama 0.559
Rasmus Højgaard 0.533
Haotong Li 0.518
Chris Gotterup 0.509

Players can also gain strokes off the tee here (although TPC Sawgrass is the third most difficult on tour to do so) and not necessarily just based on distance.

Here are the numbers for the recent Players winners for Strokes Gained Off The Tee:

2025: McIlroy +2.7 (17th)

2024: Scheffler +6.4 (1st)

2023: Scheffler +4.6 (5th)

2022: Smith -5.2 (68th) — led the field for Strokes Gained: Putting and 5th for Strokes Gained: Approach

2021: Thomas +3.4 (10th)

2019: McIlroy +5.3 (2nd)

2018: Simpson +1.5 (34th)

2017: Si Woo Kim +5.4 (2nd)

2016: Day +1.9 (28th)

2015: Fowler +1.9 (26th)

Strokes Gained: Off The Tee — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Michael Brennan 0.931
Scottie Scheffler 0.743
Marco Penge 0.728
Joel Dahmen 0.711
Cameron Young 0.685
Johnny Keefer 0.660
Pierceson Coody 0.636
Rory McIlroy 0.623
Chris Gotterup 0.622
Keith Mitchell 0.622
Nicolai Højgaard 0.612
Harris English 0.596
Min Woo Lee 0.587
Haotong Li 0.583
Adam Scott 0.572
Robert MacIntyre 0.565
Gary Woodland 0.554
Si Woo Kim 0.552
Kurt Kitayama 0.551
Aldrich Potgieter 0.548
Collin Morikawa 0.542
Taylor Moore 0.526
Ryo Hisatsune 0.516

Good Drive Percentage is a measure for par-4s and par-5s by calculating the sum of fairways hit and number of greens or fringe in regulation (when the drive was not in the fairway on the tee shot), divided by the number of par-4s and par-5s played.

In layman’s terms, Good Drive Percentage combines both off the tee and approach play since TPC Sawgrass is the ultimate positional course where players will club down off the tee to avoid the many water hazards. It also takes into account a player’s ability to reach the green even when missing the fairway.

Good Drive Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

Joel Dahmen 90.66%
Matt Fitzpatrick 88.10
Collin Morikawa 88.10
Si Woo Kim 87.71
Haotong Li 86.97
William Mouw 86.90
Lucas Glover 86.43
Rory McIlroy 86.43
Daniel Berger 86.31
Cameron Young 86.09
Kurt Kitayama 86.05
Max McGreevy 86.05
Patrick Cantlay 85.71
Corey Conners 85.71
Rickie Fowler 85.71
Jake Knapp 85.71
Ryo Hisatsune 85.40
Justin Rose 85.12
Ben Griffin 85.00

Players will miss greens here and have to chip out of both thick rough and short grass to save pars.

Here are the numbers for recent Players winners for Strokes Gained: Around the Green:

2025: McIlroy -0.8 (51st) — only Players winner to lose strokes Around the Green

2024: Scheffler +3.1 (6th)

2023: Scheffler +5.0 (4th)

2022: Smith +1.4 (19th)

2021: Thomas +3.0 (12th)

2019: McIlroy +1.5 (26th)

2018: Simpson +5.0 (3rd)

2017: Si Woo Kim +4.9 (3rd)

2016: Day +3.6 (11th)

2015: Fowler +1.1 (33rd)

Strokes Gained: Around The Green — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Tommy Fleetwood 0.900
Hideki Matsuyama 0.608
Scottie Scheffler 0.585
Taylor Moore 0.566
Harry Hall 0.555
Keegan Bradley 0.529
Ben Griffin 0.528
Min Woo Lee 0.456
Mackenzie Hughes 0.453
Akshay Bhatia 0.448
Sahith Theegala 0.430
Nick Taylor 0.407
Rory McIlroy 0.406
Alex Noren 0.384
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.382
Chris Gotterup 0.379
Kevin Roy 0.374
Jason Day 0.368
Andrew Putnam 0.318
Brooks Koepka 0.307
Danny Walker 0.302

Scrambling (2026 PGA Tour season)

Hideki Matsuyama 75.69%
Taylor Moore 73.79
Robert MacIntyre 73.17
Kurt Kitayama 72.97
Nick Taylor 72.18
Russell Henley 72.12
Jake Knapp 71.82
Rory McIlroy 71.43
Jason Day 70.24
Davis Thompson 69.66
Nicolai Højgaard 69.41
Rickie Fowler 69.31
Kevin Roy 68.63
Adam Scott 68.52
Sahith Theegala 67.95
Steven Fisk 67.82
Haotong Li 67.68
Jordan Spieth 67.59
Joel Dahmen 67.57
Harry Hall 67.50
Eric Cole 67.24
S.H. Kim 67.15
Tommy Fleetwood 67.11

Scrambling, Sand Save Percentage, Three-Putt Avoidance are all more difficult at TPC Sawgrass as opposed to the average PGA Tour course. There are plenty of opportunities to make bogey, especially with so much water on the course.

Bogey Avoidance Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

Rory McIlroy 8.33% (percentage of time player makes bogey)
Kurt Kitayama 9.42
Jake Knapp 9.72
Nick Taylor 9.72
Hideki Matsuyama 9.95
Rickie Fowler 10.00
Taylor Moore 10.07
Russell Henley 10.19
Jacob Bridgeman 10.42
Davis Thompson 10.53
Joel Dahmen 10.76
Jason Day 10.76
Nicolai Højgaard 10.76
Scottie Scheffler 10.83
Si Woo Kim 10.91
Robert MacIntyre 11.11
Daniel Berger 11.32
Ricky Castillo 11.39
Min Woo Lee 11.39
Adam Scott 11.39
Patrick Cantlay 11.46

Despite the course presenting many challenges, the Birdie or Better rate is about the same as tour average. Pete Dye courses are risk/reward. He forces you to hit toward the trouble, but if you execute the right shot, this course can be had with low numbers.

Birdie Or Better Percentage (2026 PGA Tour season)

Scottie Scheffler 32.22%
Rory McIlroy 31.11
Jacob Bridgeman 29.40
Ludvig Åberg 28.82
Pierceson Coody 28.63
Ricky Castillo 28.61
Min Woo Lee 28.33
Akshay Bhatia 28.31
Jake Knapp 27.50
Collin Morikawa 27.47
Si Woo Kim 27.38
Shane Lowry 27.38
Wyndham Clark 26.94
Max Greyserman 26.94
Harris English 26.85
Matt Fitzpatrick 26.67
Russell Henley 26.54
Ryan Gerard 26.28
Harry Hall 26.11
Robert MacIntyre 26.11
Ryo Hisatsune 26.07
Austin Smotherman 26.02

The four par-5s have a combined Birdie Or Better rate of almost 40% and none of them are all that long. Water lurks on three of them, but players will have to attack all of them if they want to score low here.

Strokes Gained: Par-5s — Average Per Round (Last 50 rounds)

Jake Knapp 0.280
Rasmus Højgaard 0.222
Min Woo Lee 0.221
Scottie Scheffler 0.213
Pierceson Coody 0.184
Mac Meissner 0.180
Matt Fitzpatrick 0.170
Ludvig Åberg 0.170
Adam Scott 0.157
Tommy Fleetwood 0.149
Rory McIlroy 0.148
Xander Schauffele 0.148
Sudarshan Yellamaraju 0.135
Sepp Straka 0.133
Jordan L Smith 0.133
Cameron Young 0.132
Kristoffer Reitan 0.128
Shane Lowry 0.122
Rico Hoey 0.121
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.118
S.H. Kim 0.109
Chris Gotterup 0.108
J.J. Spaun 0.106
Emiliano Grillo 0.103

Ball striking wins at The Players. Scottie Scheffler ranked 37th and 48th for Strokes Gained: Putting during his winning weeks at The Players. You don’t necessarily need to putt great to win here, but it never hurts, as Cameron Smith proved in 2022 and Webb Simpson proved the same in 2018, when they led their respective fields for Strokes Gained: Putting. Rory McIlroy ranked 10th last year in his victory.

Strokes Gained: Putting — Average Per Round (2026 PGA Tour season)

Jacob Bridgeman 1.221
Jake Knapp 1.095
Davis Riley 1.021
Matthieu Pavon 1.005
Vince Whaley 0.977
Kevin Roy 0.883
Karl Vilips 0.864
Akshay Bhatia 0.850
Robert MacIntyre 0.828
Rickie Fowler 0.807
Chandler Phillips 0.798
Jordan Spieth 0.794
Rasmus Højgaard 0.761
Chad Ramey 0.733
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 0.673
Takumi Kanaya 0.664
Russell Henley 0.659
Harry Hall 0.559
Scottie Scheffler 0.547
Matt McCarty 0.528
Jason Day 0.521

TPC Sawgrass has all the trademark characteristics of Pete Dye designs — railroad ties, dogleg fairways, strategically placed water hazards and bunkers, and risk/reward golf.

Strokes Gained: Pete Dye Courses — Average Per Round (Last 36 rounds)

Scottie Scheffler 2.62 (28 rounds)
Justin Thomas 2.00 (26 rounds)
Rory McIlroy 1.88 (16 rounds)
Alex Smalley 1.77 (12 rounds)
Wyndham Clark 1.58 (26 rounds)
Brian Harman 1.45 (24 rounds)
Sepp Straka 1.37 (27 rounds)
Tom Hoge 1.29 (30 rounds)
Tommy Fleetwood 1.25 (24 rounds)
Jason Day 1.15 (26 rounds)
Hideki Matsuyama 1.10 (14 rounds)
Patrick Cantlay 1.06 (20 rounds)

Selections

Collin Morikawa +2050

Morikawa has kept up a good run since winning at Pebble Beach last month by following up with a T-7 at the Genesis and a fifth last week at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

TPC Sawgrass has always seemed to be an ideal course for Morikawa’s ball striking, yet he has just one top-10 in five appearances, which came last year. It was here last year that Morikawa got into a bit of a kerfuffle with the media after skipping post-round availability the week prior when he blew a three-shot lead at the 2025 API.

He is third in this week’s field for both Strokes Gained: Approach and Good Drives Gained.

Ludvig Åberg 28-1

After struggling to start 2026, Åberg did show some signs a couple of weeks ago at the Genesis, indicating a turnaround, and it showed last week at Bay Hill, where he finished third and ranked second for Strokes Gained: Tee-To-Green.

The ball striking was on full display as he ranked first for Driving Distance, second for Driving Accuracy, first for Total Driving, fifth for Greens in Regulation and second for Ball Striking.

A Ponte Vedra Beach resident, Aberg uses TPC Sawgrass as his practice facility and plays both the Dye Valley and Stadium Course regularly.

Cameron Young 35-1

Young has finished third and seventh in his last two starts.

He led the field for Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee and was third for Strokes Gained: Ball Striking last week at Bay Hill.

He has never finished better than 51st in four appearances here. However, he has finished inside the top 10 in eight of his last 15 overall starts and finally earned his first PGA Tour victory last fall at a comparable course (Sedgefield — Wyndham Championship).

Viktor Hovland 40-1

Hovland was T-3 here in 2023 and ninth the year prior.

On the other hand, he also shot 80 here in the first round to sit dead last but rebounded to win the Valspar the following week.

After a couple of down performances in California, he finished T-13 last week at Bay Hill.

Matt Fitzpatrick 41-1

Course form is fickle here at The Players for most, and Fitzpatrick certainly falls into that, having missed the cut here in three of the last five years. However, the other finishes were fifth and ninth.

Approach is the name of the game at TPC Sawgrass, and he was eighth at TPC Scottsdale, third at Pebble Beach and 10th at Riviera in the category.

Putting has been terrible for him to start 2026, but a return to Florida proved to be a good thing last week as he was 14th for Strokes Gained: Putting and can keep it going here.

Min Woo Lee 41-1

Lee was sixth on debut here in 2023.

He also finished T-6 last week at Bay Hill, where he was top-5 with the irons. Lee was 12th at the Genesis and finished T-2 with Sepp Straka behind Morikawa at Pebble Beach last month.

The Australian is an elite driver and should be a contender here if his iron play matches the off-the-tee.

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