Game: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans

Date: November 20th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

With Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud still in the concussion protocol, that makes things around this Thursday night game between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans a little hairy. Buffalo is coming off a huge win this past weekend against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, in what was a thrilling game throughout, bringing their record to 7-3. With MVP Josh Allen at the helm, they are 2nd in yards per game (387.4), paired with 4th in points per game (29.2). The defense hasn’t been quite as dominant at 13th in yards allowed per game (322.7), along with 14th in points allowed per game (22.9).

In the two weeks with Davis Mills starting, we’ve seen this Texans team pull out two wins against fellow AFC South opponents, bringing their record to 5-5 on the season. Offensively they’ve been below average at 19th in yards per game (329.6) and 21st in points per game (22). They have been the best statistical defense in both yards and points allowed per game (16.3 points per game) (258.1 yards per game). With this game being played in Houston, and with how good their defense has been, they could easily stay in this game, even if they have to rely on Davis Mills.

Embed from Getty Images

Betting Overview

We’ve seen this one move ever so slightly further in favor of Buffalo, as it opened with Buffalo at -3.5 and they now sit at -5.5. Unsurprisingly, the moneyline has seen the same movement, with the Bills currently at -250 and the Texans at +225 for their best value. The total has fallen a bit from 46.5 to 43.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This is a fairly evenly coached matchup. Buffalo certainly has a more dynamic scheme on the offensive side of the ball, but the Texans deflect that well with DeMeco Ryans’ scheme on defense. With this game being played in Houston, I’ll give a slight nod to Houston here.

DLs vs. OLs: Both of these teams have top 10 defensive lines in the NFL, with Houston being slightly better on the defensive side of the line. On the offensive line, however, the Bills are significantly better than Houston, giving Buffalo the overall edge up front.

QBs: The quarterback matchup clearly favors Josh Allen. There probably isn’t a matchup in the NFL right now where Allen doesn’t get the edge, not to mention the Texans are likely with a backup QB.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: We’re seeing a fairly even matchup in this position group. Buffalo certainly has the better RB in James Cook, while you could argue either way for the tight end room. Houston may have a slightly better linebacker corps, giving them the overall edge here.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Neither team jumps off the page in the wide receiver room, but the Texans have actually been slightly better than Buffalo in the secondary, though this matchup is very, very close.

Betting Trends

Buffalo is now 5-5 ATS, with a 2-2 record on the road (all as favorites) and a 4-2 mark outside the division. The over/under is split at 5-5, though the under has been more favorable on the road, hitting in three of four games. In non-division matchups, however, the over has been the better play, cashing in four of six.

Houston enters this one at 4-6 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home but an 0-1 mark as a home underdog. They are also 2-4 in non-division games. Totals sit at 3-6-1 favoring unders, with the under hitting in three of five home games and going 2-3-1 in non-division play.

Final Thoughts

Last week felt like a potential turning point in the Bills’ season, just when it seemed things were starting to trend in the wrong direction. Josh Allen delivered what was likely his best performance of the year, giving Buffalo some much-needed momentum heading into a matchup with a tough Texans defense. While it may be difficult to create separation against this Houston team, I think the Bills will be positioned to do so here. The total, however, feels like more of a toss-up.