Game: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Date: September 18th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Amazon Prime Video

After last week’s lopsided Thursday Night Football game, many hoped for a closer matchup this time, but that doesn’t seem likely as the 0-2 Dolphins head to Buffalo to face the 2-0 Bills. The only edge for Miami might be that the Buffalo weather isn’t brutal yet, though it will still be a raucous environment. These teams have been nearly polar opposites so far, with Miami getting blown out in Week 1 before playing a tight game against a so-so New England Patriots squad. Buffalo, meanwhile, won a dogfight against an outstanding Ravens team and then dominated an inferior New York Jets squad. The Bills will look to replicate that effort this week before enjoying a mini bye ahead of Week 4.

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Weather

Temperatures for this game will be fairly warm for Buffalo, sitting around 70 degrees at kickoff and dipping into the high 60s as the game progresses. There is no precipitation in the forecast, and wind could play a small role, averaging around 8 mph with gusts up to 21 mph.

Betting Overview

This game continues to shift further in Buffalo’s favor, opening with the Bills as 8.5-point favorites and now sitting between 11.5 and 12.5. The moneyline is hardly worth a look, with Buffalo between -700 and -800 and Miami ranging from +500 to +575. The over/under has inched up slightly from 48.5 to 49.5.

In the last 10 matchups between these teams dating back to 2021, the Bills have won all but one, covering the spread in 5 with 1 push, while Miami has covered 4. The over/under has split evenly at 5 apiece.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching comparison in this matchup isn’t remotely close. Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel showed promise by making the playoffs in back-to-back years in 2022 and 2023, but the team completely imploded last season. Schematically, this year’s squad looks much the same, which is not an encouraging sign. Sean McDermott and his staff have been a model of consistency in the NFL over the past few seasons, though it certainly helps to have someone like Josh Allen, who might be the biggest game-changer in the league.

DLs vs. OLs: These two defensive lines are somewhat comparable, but Buffalo holds the clear edge thanks to a much stronger offensive line. Through just two games this season, Tua Tagovailoa has already been sacked 8 times, and the Dolphins’ run game has been largely stagnant.

QBs: This battle isn’t close, with Josh Allen clearly taking the edge. He has consistently shown the ability to read defenses, create plays when needed, and his accuracy has only improved over the years. Unfortunately, the same cannot be said for Tua Tagovailoa.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: In this category, I’d give a slight edge to Miami, but it doesn’t matter much—especially on offense—if they can’t protect up front. The Bills may have some concerns in the run game, but they can spread the ball around when needed.

WRs vs. Secondaries: This category is fairly close, though not for the best reasons. I’d give a slight edge to Miami because of their deeper wide receiver group. However, neither secondary rank among the strongest in the NFL.

Betting Trends from 2024

Miami didn’t have a strong season last year, particularly on the road ATS. In away games they went 4-5-0, but as an underdog they were just 2-5-0. The under was also frequent, hitting in 7 of 9 overall and 5 of 7 as road underdogs. In division matchups, however, the over hit in 4 of 6 for Miami.

The Bills, on the other hand, were excellent at home, covering in 7 of 10 overall and 6 of 9 as home favorites. Division games were more challenging, where they went 3-3 ATS. The over was more common at home, hitting in 6 of 10 overall and 6 of 9 as a home favorite. In division play, the over cashed in 4 of 6.

Final Thoughts

While the Miami Dolphins have been far from impressive so far, a 12.5-point spread feels like a lot—even on the road against a powerhouse like the Bills. I’m not saying this game will be close, but I’d be cautious about taking Buffalo at the current number. I’d have more confidence in the over this week, especially if Miami can keep its passing game at the level, it showed this past Sunday.