Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Date: October 16th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

This week’s Thursday Night Football brings us an AFC North matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals. Pittsburgh has somewhat quietly started the season with a 4-1 record. The offense has shown flashes at times, and it does seem that Aaron Rodgers still has something left in the tank at this point in his career. It comes as no surprise, however, how strong that Pittsburgh defense has been, particularly with its front seven. The Steelers come in with the third-highest sack percentage (9.52% of plays) and the fourth-best red zone defense, allowing touchdowns only 50% of the time. There are some mild concerns regarding their yards allowed per game, as they rank 25th, giving up 355.6 yards per contest. As for the Bengals, things have fallen off in a big way since the injury to Joe Burrow, as they’ve lost four straight since that day. They rank 31st in the NFL in yards per game (235.2) and 29th in points per game (17.2). The defense hasn’t helped much either, sitting 31st in yards allowed per game (394.2) and 30th in points allowed per game (30.5). While the Bengals have struggled badly on both sides of the ball, divisional games always present a different challenge for both teams since they know each other so well.

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Weather

The weather in this game shouldn’t play much of a factor, with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and a 0% chance of precipitation. Winds are expected to average around 6 mph, with occasional gusts reaching up to 9 mph.

Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for this game at the start of the season, the Bengals were heavily favored at -4.5. But with the way both the Bengals and Steelers have been playing, the Steelers are now -5.5 favorites. Moneylines currently range between -260 and -278 in favor of Pittsburgh, while Cincinnati sits between +210 and +225. The total has also moved down quite a bit from its opening line of 46.5 and now rests between 42.5 and 43.5, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: Obviously, Mike Tomlin has been around this Steelers organization for a long time, and he’s been the epitome of consistency. He, along with defensive coordinator Teryl Austin, has formed a dynamic duo for that strong Pittsburgh defense, giving them the coaching edge in this matchup.

DLs vs. OLs: Both offensive lines in this matchup have graded out poorly up to this point in the season, but Pittsburgh’s defensive line remains one of the best in the NFL. This presents a much tougher challenge for Cincinnati’s offensive line than the other way around, giving the Steelers the clear advantage.

QBs: Aaron Rodgers has looked much more efficient than Joe Flacco through the first few games of the season. Flacco, while operating in a different offense, does have plenty of experience facing Mike Tomlin and that Steelers defense, which is worth noting. That said, Rodgers still holds the edge here.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Neither of these teams has been great in the running game, nor have their tight end groups done much to stand out. The Steelers are slightly better across the board in this area, giving them the slight overall edge.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The secondaries aren’t a strong suit for either team, but you can’t overlook how talented that Cincinnati receiver group is. They haven’t played up to their full potential without Burrow, yet they still hold the advantage in this area.

Betting Trends

While this Steelers–Bengals rivalry has been split at five games apiece over the last ten meetings straight up, the Steelers have proven to be the slightly better team against the spread, covering six of ten, including the last four. The over has also been slightly more favorable, hitting in six of the ten, and splitting over the last four.

On the season, the Steelers sit at 3-2 ATS, splitting one apiece thus far as an away favorite, and going 1-0 within the division. Totals have followed a similar trend, with the over hitting in three of Pittsburgh’s five games, splitting one apiece as an away favorite, though the under hit in their lone divisional matchup.

The Bengals enter this divisional meeting with a 2-4 record ATS, including 0-1 as a home underdog and 0-1 within the division. Overs have been slightly more favorable in Bengals games, hitting in four of six overall, with both home games going over, while the under hit in their lone divisional matchup.

Final Thoughts

This game is a tough one to bet from a spread standpoint, but I think the Steelers’ front seven will prove difficult for the Bengals to handle. I do expect Cincinnati to keep things close, but the Steelers should ultimately come out on top. With the Bengals’ pass-heavy attack, I also expect the over to hit based on the current line.

Ja’Marr Chase’s anytime touchdown is currently listed at +135, and he has scored a touchdown in the last 2 games, as well as his last 2 games against this Steelers team.