Game: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date: December 11th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

This week’s Thursday Night Football game is a slight letdown compared to last week, featuring an NFC South matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There are still playoff implications in this one, which keeps things interesting, as the Buccaneers have made the NFC South race far more competitive. Atlanta enters this matchup on a 2-game losing streak with an overall record of 4-9. Their offense has been inconsistent, averaging 330 yards per game (16th in NFL), along with just 19.4 points per game (27th in NFL). They haven’t been much better defensively, allowing 322.5 yards per game (14th in NFL), and 24.1 points per game (20th in NFL). The Bucs have also struggled recently, losing 4 of their last 5 to fall to 7-6. They haven’t excelled on either side of the ball, averaging 315 yards per game (22nd in NFL) and 23 points per game (17th in NFL) on offense. Defensively they’ve been slightly worse, allowing 338.4 yards per game (21st in NFL), along with 25 points per game (23rd in NFL). With the Falcons already eliminated from playoff contention, their role is spoiler, while the Bucs look to stabilize their season.

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Weather

Thursday’s game in Tampa will be played in cooler temperatures for Florida, settling in the mid to high 50s. Precipitation won’t be a factor, and winds could play a small role with averages around 5 mph and gusts up to 10 mph.

Betting Overview

When lines opened, Tampa was favored by 5.5 points, but books now have them at 4 to 4.5. Even with that movement on the spread, moneylines have stayed steady with Atlanta at +185 and Tampa at -225. The total has dropped notably from the opening number of 47.5, now sitting at 44.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The Raheem Morris experiment in Atlanta feels like it’s nearing an abrupt end as the season winds down. Todd Bowles and his staff haven’t been impressive either, but if you have to trust one sideline, it’s Bowles and the Buccaneers.

DLs vs. OLs: Tampa’s offensive line has been rough this year, and it’s become a major factor in their struggles. The defensive lines are fairly similar overall but given how poorly the Bucs’ o-line has performed, the edge up front goes to Atlanta.

QBs: With the Falcons turning to Kirk Cousins after the Michael Penix Jr. injury, things haven’t gone smoothly. Baker Mayfield hasn’t been outstanding, but he’s been the more reliable quarterback in recent years—and still is.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Atlanta holds the advantage here, with stronger talent across these position groups. It still feels like Bijan Robinson is being limited by the offense around him, but the matchup favors the Falcons.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both teams have dealt with injuries at wide receiver and have struggled in the secondary. With fewer injuries in both their receiving corps and defensive backfield, the Falcons get a slight edge on the perimeter, though it’s close.

Betting Trends

In the last 10 matchups between these teams, the Buccaneers have won 6 of 10. Against the spread, each team has covered 5 times, and the total has leaned toward the over, hitting in 6 of the last 10. In their Week 1 matchup in Atlanta this season, Tampa Bay won, narrowly covered, and the under hit.

Atlanta enters this matchup with a 5-7-1 ATS record, a 3-3 mark on the road, and a perfect 3-0 record as a road underdog. Within the division, however, the Falcons are just 1-3. Totals sit at 6-6-1 overall, with the under-hitting in 4 of 6 road games and 2 of 3 games as a road underdog. In NFC South play, the under has hit in 3 of 4.

Tampa Bay is 5-8 ATS this season, with a 1-5 home record and a 1-4 record as a home favorite, but they are 2-1 in division matchups. Totals have leaned toward the over in 7 of 13 games overall, including 5 of 6 at home and 4 of 5 when favored at home. In NFC South games, the under has hit in 2 of 3.

Final Thoughts

With Tampa Bay having more on the line, I expect them to come into this game motivated and focused. Despite their recent struggles, they still sit atop the division. With a night game at home and the stakes high, I like the Buccaneers to cover here, with the under-hitting as well.