Today we wrap up the work week with a 21 game College Basketball slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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7 p.m. ET: Mount St. Mary’s at Sacred Heart (-2.5, 149.5)

Mount St. Mary’s (14-15) has won four straight and just dismissed Canisius 68-47, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Sacred Heart (12-18) has lost two straight and just came up short against Marist 65-63 but managed to cover as 7.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Sacred Heart listed as a 2-point home favorite.

Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring home court advantage, why is a team on a losing skid with a worse record favored over a team on a winning streak with a better record?

Sharps have embraced the fishy spot and sided with Sacred Heart at home, driving the Pioneers up from -2 to -2.5, with some books inching toward -3.

At DraftKings, Sacred Heart is taking in 49% of spread bets but a whopping 74% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating an undecided public but also heavy sharp action in favor of the home team.

Ken Pom has Sacred Heart winning by two points (76-74).

With this in mind, many bettors have preferred to mitigate some risk by playing the Pioneers on the moneyline at -160.

Sacred Heart has the better offensive efficiency (216th vs 331st), effective field goal percentage (153rd vs 190th), three-point shooting (68th vs 232nd) and free-throw shooting (23rd vs 330th).

Sacred Heart is 7-5 at home this season. Mount St. Mary’s is 6-10 on the road.

8 p.m. ET: Appalachian State at Texas State (-1.5, 132.5)

Appalachian State (19-11) just snapped a two-game losing skid with an 89-74 win over Georgia Southern, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas State (18-12) just saw their seven-game win streak come to an end, falling to Louisiana 67-54 and losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Appalachian State listed as a 1-point road favorite.

Sharps have pounced on Texas State at home, flipping the Bobcats from a 1-point home dog to a 1.5-point home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on Texas State.

At DraftKings, Texas State is taking in 54% of spread bets and 60% of spread dollars. At Circa, Texas State is receiving 50% of spread bets and a whopping 94% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home team.

Many sharps have looked to gain some added cushion by targeting Texas State on the moneyline at -120.

At DraftKings, the Bobcats are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of heavy pro action siding with a straight up Texas State victory.

Texas State has the better offensive rebound percentage (70th vs 149th), free-throw shooting (50th vs 364th) and force more turnovers on defense (83rd vs 337th).

Texas State is 15-1 at home this season.

8 p.m. ET: Michigan (-1.5, 157.5) at Illinois

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Michigan (26-2, ranked 3rd) has won 12 of their last 13 and just held off Minnesota 77-67 but failed to cover as 22-point home favorites. On the other hand, Illinois (22-6, ranked 10th) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to UCLA 95-94 in overtime and losing outright as 6.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Michigan listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.

The public can’t believe this line is so low and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Wolverines, who have the better won-loss record and ranking.

This lopsided betting pushed Michigan up from -1.5 to -2.5.

However, since that time we’ve seen nothing but sharp buyback on Illinois, dropping the Fighting Illini back down from +2.5 to +1.5.

Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze on Illinois, as we are right back to the opening number despite the public hammering the Wolverines.

Illinois is the top “bet against the public” play of the day as the Fighting Illini are only receiving 23% of spread bets in the most heavily bet nationally televised primetime game of the night on FOX.

At Circa, Illinois is receiving 47% of spread bets and 64% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” split in their favor.

Ken Pom has Michigan winning by one point (81-80), which provides actionable value on the Fighting Illini at +1.5.

Illinois has the better offensive efficiency (1st vs 5th), offensive rebound percentage (3rd vs 24th), free-throw shooting (6th vs 152nd) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (13th vs 171st).

The Fighting Illini also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on February 21st while Michigan last played on February 24th.

Illinois is 13-2 at home this season.

The post Top Picks from the CBB Betting Splits for Friday February 27th appeared first on VSiN.