Top Picks from the CBB Betting Splits for the First Four on Tuesday March 17th

Today the NCAA Tournament begins with a pair of First Four matchups to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both March Madness games using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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6:40 p.m. ET: UMBC vs Howard (-1, 141.5)

Both of these teams are 16-seeds and the winner will advance to face 1-seed Michigan.

UMBC (24-8) has won twelve straight and just brushed aside Vermont 74-59 to win the America East tournament, easily covering as 2-point neutral site favorites. Meanwhile, Howard (23-10) has won eight in a row and just outlasted NC Central 70-63 to win the MEAC tournament but failed to cover as 11.5-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened with UMBC listed as high as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.

The public is rushing to the window to back UMBC, who has the better won-loss record.

However, despite UMBC receiving 73% of spread bets at DraftKings we’ve seen this line completely flip in favor of Howard, pushing the Bison from a 2.5-point neutral site dog to a 1-point neutral site favorite. Some shops have even touched as high as Howard -1.5.

In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on Howard, as the line has flipped in their direction despite the public hammering UMBC.

Howard offers notable “fade the trendy dog” contrarian value, as the Bison are only receiving 27% of spread bets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, nationally televised game.

At Circa, Howard is taking in 40% of spread bets but a hefty 72% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet discrepancy and further evidence of sharp money in Vegas backing the Bison.

Those looking to follow the sharp move but also gain some added cushion in a potentially close game may prefer a Howard moneyline play at -115.

Howard has the better defensive efficiency (117th vs 192nd), offensive rebound percentage (20th vs 340th), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (30th vs 75th) and force more turnovers on defense (8th vs 272nd).

9:15 p.m. ET: Texas vs NC State (-1.5, 158.5)

Both of these teams are 11-seeds and the winner will advance to face 6-seed BYU.

Texas (18-14) has dropped five of their last six and just fell to Ole Miss 76-66 in the first round of the SEC tournament, losing outright as 5.5-point neutral site favorites. Similarly, NC State (20-13) has also lost five of their last six and just came up short against Virginia 81-74 in the ACC tournament quarterfinal, failing to cover as 6.5-point neutral site favorites.

This line opened at roughly a pick’em.

The public is split down the middle and can’t decide which team to support.

However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen NC State move from a pick’em to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.

Normally, in a vacuum, you wouldn’t expect the line to move if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the 50/50 line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have backed the Wolfpack.

At DraftKings, NC State is taking in 50% of spread bets and 54% of spread dollars. At Circa, NC State is receiving 56% of spread bets and a whopping 92% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Wolfpack, especially from the sharps out in the desert.

Ken Pom has NC State winning by one point (83-82). He also has the Wolfpack ranked slightly higher (34th vs 37th).

With this in mind, many pros have looked to gain some added protection by playing NC State on the moneyline at -115 or -120.

At DraftKings, NC State is taking in 44% of moneyline bets and 50% of moneyline dollars, another sharp split in favor of a straight up Wolfpack victory.

NC State has the better defensive efficiency (86th vs 112th), effective field goal percentage (35th vs 61st), three-point shooting (10th vs 126th), free-throw shooting (37th vs 71st), commit fewer turnovers on offense (9th vs 86th) and force more turnovers on defense (91st vs 346th).

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