Today we have another loaded College Basketball slate on tap with 44 Conference Tournament games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:30 p.m. ET: Middle Tennessee State (-2.5, 131.5) vs Louisiana Tech
Embed from Getty ImagesThis is the Conference USA Tournament quarterfinal.
Middle Tennessee State (17-14) is the 5-seed, has won five straight and just edged Missouri State 75-63 in their regular season finale, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, Louisiana Tech (18-13) is the 4-seed, has won three of their last four and just dominated Delaware 81-38, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Middle Tennessee State listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and can’t decide whether to take the points or lay them.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen Middle Tennessee State creep up from -1.5 to -2.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price one way or the other. So, based on the line movement we can infer that the bigger, sharper and more respected wagers have laid the chalk with the Blue Raiders.
Ken Pom has Middle Tennessee State winning by two points (67-65). He also has the Blue Raiders ranked higher (170th vs 209th).
With this in mind, many sharps have looked to gain some added cushion by playing Middle Tennessee State on the moneyline at -140.
At DraftKings, Middle Tennessee State is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of sharp action backing the Blue Raiders to earn a straight up victory.
Middle Tennessee State has the better offensive efficiency (167th vs 300th), effective field goal percentage (172nd vs 321st), three-point shooting (194th vs 357th), free-throw shooting (252nd vs 349th) and limit their opponents to fewer offensive rebounds (90th vs 205th).
9:30 p.m. ET: Florida Atlantic vs North Texas (-1.5, 135.5)
This is the second round of the American Conference Tournament.
Florida Atlantic (18-14) is the 7-seed and just held off Temple 63-59 in yesterday’s first round, winning outright as 1.5-point neutral site dogs. On the other hand, North Texas (18-13) is the 6-seed, has won three of their last four and just edged Rice 62-58 in their regular season finale but failed to cover as 6.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Florida Atlantic listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public sees two evenly matched teams and can’t decide who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split at DraftKings we’ve seen North Texas flip from a 1.5-point neutral site dog to a 1.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on North Texas.
At DraftKings, North Texas is receiving 50% of spread bets but 70% of spread dollars. At Circa, North Texas is taking in 33% of spread bets and a whopping 99% of spread dollars. Both books are displaying a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the Mean Green.
Many sharps have looked to protect themselves in the event of a close game by playing North Texas on the moneyline at -120.
At DraftKings, North Texas is receiving 37% of moneyline bets and 48% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of smart money banking on a straight up Mean Green win.
North Texas has the better defensive efficiency (42nd vs 114th), force more turnovers on defense (9th vs 241st), limit their opponents to fewer three-pointers (40th vs 176th) and grab more offensive rebounds (66th vs 128th).
The Mean Green also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, having last played on March 4th while Florida Atlantic is playing the second leg of a back-to-back and their 3rd game since March 7th.
11:30 p.m. ET: UC Davis vs Cal State Fullerton (-2.5, 155.5)
This is the Big West Tournament quarterfinal.
UC Davis (19-13) is the 6-seed and just held off UC Santa Barbara 79-73 in yesterday’s first round, winning outright as 4.5-point neutral site dogs. Meanwhile, Cal State Fullerton (17-15) is the 3-seed and just crushed Cal State Northridge 90-77 in their regular season finale, easily winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with UC Davis listed as a 1-point neutral site favorite.
Sharps have gotten down hard on Cal State Fullerton, flipping the Titans from a 1-point neutral site dog to a 2.5-point neutral site favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement on Cal State Fullerton.
At DraftKings, Cal State Fullerton is receiving 55% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Cal State Fullerton is taking in 43% of spread bets and over 97% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in their favor.
Many pros have looked to gain some added protection by specifically targeting the Titans on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, Cal State Fullerton is receiving 62% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cal State Fullerton is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a straight up Titans victory.
Cal State Fullerton has the better offensive efficiency (148th vs 174th), commit fewer turnovers on offense (70th vs 263rd) and allow fewer offensive rebounds to their opponents (83rd vs 185th).
The Titans also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as UC Davis is playing the second leg of a back-to-back while Cal State Fullerton last played on March 7th.
The post Top Picks from the CBB Betting Splits for Thursday March 12th appeared first on VSiN.
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