Today we have a loaded slate of College Basketball on tap with 52 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Kentucky at Texas A&M (-1.5, 161.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesKentucky (19-10) has won two straight and just took down Vanderbilt 91-77, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, Texas A&M (19-10) has lost two in a row and just fell to Texas 76-70, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Texas A&M listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 65% of spread bets at DraftKings are grabbing the Wildcats plus the points.
However, despite the public backing Kentucky we’ve seen the line remain static at Texas A&M -1.5. In fact, several shops are juicing up the Aggies -1.5 (-115). We’ve never seen this line fall to -1 or lower.
This signals a sharp “fade the trendy dog” line freeze in favor of Texas A&M, as the line has stayed the same or been juiced in favor of the Aggies despite the public backing the Wildcats.
Texas A&M has notable “bet against the public” value as the Aggies are only receiving 35% of spread bets at DraftKings in one of the most heavily bet, nationally televised games of the night on ESPN2.
Ken Pom has Texas A&M winning by one point (79-78).
With this in mind, many sharps have looked to protect themselves by playing Texas A&M on the moneyline at -125.
The Aggies have buy-low value as an unpopular favorite on a losing skid against a sell-high trendy dog on a winning streak.
Texas A&M has the better effective field goal percentage (52nd vs 76th), three-point shooting (46th vs 118th) and free-throw shooting (109th vs 185th).
Texas A&M is 13-4 at home this season. Kentucky is 4-5 on the road.
9 p.m. ET: BYU at Cincinnati (-2.5, 151.5)
BYU (20-9) has dropped three of their last four and just fell to West Virginia 79-71, losing outright as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, Cincinnati (16-13) has won five of their last six and just crushed Oklahoma State 91-68, cruising as 9.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 1.5-point home favorite.
The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take.
However, despite this 50/50 ticket split we’ve seen Cincinnati creep up from -1.5 to -2.5.
Normally, in a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers have sided with the home chalk Bearcats.
At DraftKings, Cincinnati is receiving 47% of spread bets and a whopping 83% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
Many pros have looked to gain some added cushion by targeting Cincinnati on the moneyline at -135.
At DraftKings, Cincinnati is taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp bet discrepancy in favor of a straight up Bearcats win on their home court.
Cincinnati has the better defensive efficiency (13th vs 51st), hold their opponents to a better effective field goal percentage (43rd vs 127th) and force more turnovers on defense (68th vs 232nd).
Cincinnati is 14-3 at home. BYU is 3-5 on the road.
11 p.m. ET: Nebraska at UCLA (-1.5, 143.5)
Nebraska (25-4, ranked 9th) has won three straight and just brushed aside USC 82-67, easily covering as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, UCLA (19-10) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Minnesota 78-73 and losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Nebraska listed as a 1.5-point road favorite.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and 79% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to lay the points with the Cornhuskers, who have the better record and ranking.
However, despite Nebraska receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen this line completely flip to UCLA -1.5 at home. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Bruins.
UCLA is one of the top “bet against the public” plays of the day as the Bruins are only receiving 21% of spread bets is one of the most heavily bet games of the night on FS1.
Many pros have looked to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game by playing UCLA on the moneyline at -115.
At DraftKings, UCLA is receiving 24% of moneyline bets but 44% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of a straight up Bruins victory.
UCLA has buy-low value as an unranked team off a loss against a sell-high ranked team on a winning streak.
The Bruins have have the better offensive efficiency (31st vs 49th), three-point shooting (23rd vs 83rd) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (13th vs 24th).
UCLA is 16-1 at home this season.
The post Top Picks from the CBB Betting Splits for Tuesday March 3rd appeared first on VSiN.

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