Today we have a loaded midweek slate of College Basketball on tap with 41 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN CBB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6 p.m. ET: Creighton at Butler (-2.5, 155.5)
Embed from Getty ImagesCreighton (14-16) has dropped three in a row and just came up short against Providence 79-76, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Butler (15-14) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to Villanova 82-73 but managing to cover as 10.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Butler listed as low as a 2-point home favorite.
Sharps have sided with the short home chalk, driving Butler up from -2 to -2.5. Some shops have even touched as high as -3. We’ve never seen this line get down to -1.5 or less. In other words, all movement and liability has been on the side of the Bulldogs.
At DraftKings, Butler is taking in 59% of spread bets and 77% of spread dollars. At Circa, Butler is receiving 80% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Bulldogs, signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action.
Ken Pom has Butler winning by two points (79-77).
With this in mind, many pros have elected to protect themselves by playing the Bulldogs on the moneyline (-145).
At DraftKings, Butler is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of smart money banking on a straight up Bulldogs victory on their home court.
Butler has the better offensive rebound percentage (46th vs 274th) and commit fewer turnovers on offense (112th vs 180th).
The Bulldogs enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on February 25th while the Bluejays last played on February 28th.
Butler is 10-6 at home and tonight is their Senior Night. Creighton is 3-8 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for the Bulldogs, who lost to the Bluejays 89-85 on the road back in late December.
7 p.m. ET: Duquesne at Rhode Island (-2.5, 143.5)
Duquesne (16-13) has lost three straight and just got rolled by Saint Louis 91-76, failing to cover as 13.5-point road dogs. Similarly, Rhode Island (15-14) has also dropped three in a row and just fell to Saint Joseph’s 61-55, losing outright as 2.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Rhode Island listed as low as a 1-point home favorite.
Sharps have pounced on Rhode Island, pushing the Rams up from -1 to -2.5.
At DraftKings, Rhode Island is receiving 59% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in their favor.
Ken Pom has Rhode Island winning by two points (73-71).
As a result, many wiseguys have elected to mitigate some risk and play the Rams on the moneyline (-140).
At DraftKings, Rhode Island is taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of big money playing the Rams to earn a straight up victory.
Rhode Island has the better defensive efficiency (87th vs 135th), offensive rebound percentage (147th vs 220th), free-throw shooting (190th vs 220th) and force more turnovers on defense (12th vs 107th).
Rhode Island is 9-6 at home. Duquesne is 5-6 on the road.
This is also a revenge spot for the Rams, who lost to the Dukes 76-61 back in early February.
7 p.m. ET: Miami at SMU (-1.5, 159.5)
Miami (23-6, ranked 22nd) has won two in a row and just dominated Boston College 76-54, easily covering as 15.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, SMU (19-10) has dropped two straight and just got crushed by Stanford 95-75, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with SMU listed as low as a 1-point home favorite.
Right off the bat, this opening line speaks volumes. Even when factoring in home court advantage, why is an unranked team favored over a ranked team with a far better record?
Pros have embraced the fishy side, pushing SMU up from -1 to -1.5.
At DraftKings, SMU is taking in 47% of spread bets but a notable 78% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in their favor.
Ken Pom has SMU winning by two points (82-80).
With this in mind, many sharps have elected to pay a few more cents of juice and gain some added cushion by playing the Mustangs on the moneyline (-120).
SMU has the better offensive efficiency (16th vs 44th), three-point shooting (22nd vs 178th) and free-throw shooting (106th vs 329th).
The Mustangs have buy-low value as an unranked team on a losing skid against a sell-high ranked team on a winning streak.
SMU is 15-2 at home this season.
The post Top Picks from the CBB Betting Splits for Wednesday March 4th appeared first on VSiN.

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