Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action on tap with 16 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-160, 9) at Cincinnati Reds
The Dodgers (62-45) took last night’s series opener 5-2, cruising as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers send out righty Tyler Glasnow (1-1, 2.75 ERA) and the Reds (56-51) counter with lefty Nick Lodolo (8-6, 3.08 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -150 road favorite and Cincinnati a +130 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on another Dodgers road victory, steaming Los Angeles up from -150 to -160.
At Circa, the Dodgers are only taking in 60% of moneyline bets but a hefty 85% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy money out in Vegas backing the road chalk.
Favorites off a win with a winning record who made the postseason the previous year receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 127-57 (69%) with a 7% ROI this season.
The Dodgers have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Los Angeles has the superior offense, hitting .254 with 161 homers and 561 runs scored compared to the Reds hitting .246 with 109 homers and 487 runs scored.
Glasnow has pitched well since returning from the injured list, posting a 1.00 ERA in three starts. He has only allowed 2 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. He has a 0.82 ERA in night games this season.
Meanwhile, Lodolo has a 4.17 ERA at home compared to a 2.23 ERA on the road.
Embed from Getty Images7:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-120, 9) at Minnesota Twins
The Twins (51-55) won last night’s series opener 5-4, walking off in the bottom of the 9th as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox (57-51) tap righty Lucas Giolito (6-2, 3.97 ERA) and the Twins go with righty Pierson Ohl, who is making his MLB debut. Ohl was a 14th round pick in 2021 and has gone 5-2 with a 2.17 ERA in the minors this season.
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have jumped on the Red Sox to exact some revenge after last night’s blown save, steaming Boston up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their favor are 57-31 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season. Short road favorites -130 or less off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 60-40 (60%) with a 10% ROI.
Boston has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Red Sox have the more productive bats, hitting .252 with 131 homers and 524 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .241 with 122 homers and 445 runs scored.
Boston is 10-3 in Giolito’s last 13 starts. He is 3-1 with a 3.30 ERA on the road this season.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets (-125, 8.5) at San Diego Padres
The Padres (58-49) took last night’s series opener 7-6, coming through as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets (62-45) hand the ball to lefty Sean Manaea (1-1, 2.19 ERA) and the Padres turn to righty Ryan Bergert (1-0, 3.84 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -115 road favorite and San Diego a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Mets to bounce back with a win, steaming New York up from -115 to -125. Some books are even approaching -130.
At DraftKings, the Mets are taking in 64% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, New York is receiving 57% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Short road favorites -130 or less off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 60-40 (60%) with a 10% ROI this season.
New York has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Mets have the more explosive bats, hitting 135 homers and scoring 472 runs compared to the Padres hitting 90 homers and scoring 433 runs.
Manaea has made three starts this season, giving up only 1 earned run in all three starts.
Meanwhile, Bergert has a 5.19 ERA at home compared to a 1.96 ERA on the road.
The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Tuesday July 29th appeared first on VSiN.
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