Today we have a loaded midweek slate of MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.

2:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Chicago Cubs (-170, 10)

This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.

The Royals (49-53) dominated the opener 12-4, cashing as +125 road dogs. Then the Cubs (60-41) bounced back with a 6-0 win yesterday, taking care of business as -265 home favorites.

In this afternoon’s series finale, the Royals hand the ball to righty Seth Lugo (6-5, 2.94 ERA) and the Cubs send out fellow righty Colin Rea (8-3, 3.80 ERA).

This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and Kansas City a +125 road dog.

Sharps have pounced on the Cubs laying modest chalk at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -170.

At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars, indicating one-sided Pro and Joe support in their favor.

Non-division home favorites off a win receiving 5-cents of steam or more in their direction are 149-78 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season.

The Cubs are 31-13 (71%) with a 9% ROI as a home favorite, the 5th most profitable home favorite in MLB. When playing as a home favorite against a below .500 team, the Cubs are 16-4 (80%) with a 16% ROI. When priced as a home favorite of -150 or more, the Cubs are 25-6 (81%) with a 20% ROI.

Chicago has the better offense, hitting .256 with 150 homers and 533 runs scored compared to Kansas City hitting .245 with 81 homers and 355 runs scored.

Rea has a 1.45 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. The Cubs are 7-1 in Rea’s last 8 starts.

Meanwhile, Lugo has a 3.93 ERA in three July starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 18.1 innings pitched.

3:40 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Seattle Mariners (-135, 7.5)

This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.

The Brewers (60-41) won the opener 6-0, coming through as +110 road dogs. Then the Mariners (54-47) bounced back with a 1-0 win yesterday, cashing as -135 home favorites.

In this late afternoon series finale, the Brewers go with righty Quinn Priester (8-2, 3.33 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Luis Castillo (7-5, 3.21 ERA).

This line opened with Seattle listed as a -130 home favorite and Milwaukee a +110 road dog.

The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline ticket split at DraftKings, we’ve seen the Mariners quietly creep up from -130 to -135.

In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the 5-cent move we can infer that the sharper, more respected wagers are backing the home team.

At Circa, Seattle is taking in 45% of moneyline bets but a hefty 69% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the desert smart money siding with the home chalk.

Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 60-37 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.

The Mariners have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.

Castillo has a 1.45 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 18.2 innings pitched. The Mariners are 5-0 in his last five starts. He has a 2.06 ERA at home compared to 4.74 on the road.

6:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Guardians (-130, 8.5)

Embed from Getty Images

The Guardians (50-50) have taken the first two games in this four-game series, winning the opener 10-5 as -145 home favorites and winning again last night 6-3 as -160 home favorites.

In tonight’s rematch, the Orioles (44-56) tap righty Zach Eflin (6-5, 5.95 ERA) and the Guardians start fellow righty Slade Cecconi (5-4, 3.84 ERA).

This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -120 home favorite and Baltimore a +100 road dog.

Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the short chalk with the Guardians, steaming Cleveland up from -120 to -130.

At DraftKings, the Guardians are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 80% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is taking in 63% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of another Guardians win at home.

Home favorites with a line move in their favor who also made the postseason the previous year are 204-107 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 149-78 (66%) with a 4% ROI.

Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 94-56 (63%) with a 5% ROI. Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who missed the postseason the previous year are 60-37 (62%) with a 7% ROI.

The Guardians are 15-8 (65%) with a 9% ROI as a home favorite, the 8th best home favorite in MLB.

Cecconi has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 6 of his last 8 starts.

Meanwhile, Eflin is returning from the injured list after posting an 8.72 ERA in five June starts, allowing 21 earned runs in 21.2 innings pitched.

The post Top Picks from the MLB Betting Splits for Wednesday July 23rd appeared first on VSiN.