Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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12:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles (-120, 10)

The Orioles (50-58) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, sweeping yesterday’s doubleheader 16-4 as -125 home favorites and winning again 3-2 as +105 home dogs.

In this early afternoon series finale, the Blue Jays (63-46) hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (7-4, 3.83 ERA) and the Orioles counter with fellow righty Dean Kremer (8-7, 4.23 ERA).

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -115 home favorite and Toronto a -105 road dog.

The public says the Blue Jays are the better team and there’s no way they get swept. However, despite 65% of moneyline bets backing Toronto at DraftKings, we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Baltimore -115 to -120. Some books are even up to -125. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement in favor of the Orioles.

Home favorites off a win who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 132-65 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season. Short home favorites -140 or less with a sub .500 record playing an opponent with an above .500 record are 49-32 (61%) with a 9% ROI.

Kremer is 5-2 with a 2.65 ERA at home this season. Meanwhile, Berrios has a 6.12 ERA in five July starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 25 innings pitched.

The Orioles have pitched far better as of late, sporting a team ERA of 3.93 over their last ten games compared to 5.76 for the Blue Jays.

Baltimore is 27-26 at home. Toronto is 26-29 on the road.

1:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (-120, 8)

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This is the rubber match of a three-game series.

The Twins (51-56) won the opener 5-4, walking it off in the bottom of the 9th as a -110 home pick’em. Then the Red Sox (58-51) bounced back with an 8-5 win yesterday, taking care of business as -130 road favorites.

In this afternoon’s series finale, the Red Sox send out righty Brayan Bello (6-5, 3.32 ERA) and the Twins tap fellow righty Zebby Matthews (2-2, 4.97 ERA).

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -130 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog.

Sharps seem to think this opener was way too high and have gotten down hard on the Red Sox, dropping Minnesota from -130 to -120 and moving Boston from +110 to +100. Essentially, sharp Red Sox money has driven this game down toward a pick’em.

At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 76% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing a sharp one-way Pro and Joe bet discrepancy in favor of the Red Sox.

The Red Sox have the better bats, hitting .252 with 133 homers and 532 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .242 with 124 homers and 450 runs scored.

Bello has a 3.13 ERA in five July starts. He has given up 3 earned runs or less in 12 straight starts. He is 4-2 with a 3.19 ERA in day games.

Meanwhile, Matthews has a 4.50 ERA in two July starts and a 7.71 ERA in day games.

Boston also has an edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.37 (4th best in MLB) compared to 4.29 for Minnesota.

The Red Sox have a team ERA of 3.74 over their last ten games compared to 5.37 for the Twins.

Boston is 26-18 in day games. Minnesota is 22-31.

2:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 7.5)

The Brewers (64-43) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 8-4 as -105 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 9-3 as -130 home favorites.

In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs (62-45) turn to lefty Shota Imanaga (7-4, 3.12 ERA) and the Brewers start righty Freddy Peralta (12-4, 2.81 ERA).

This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 home favorite and Chicago a -105 road dog.

Sharps have quietly sided with the Brewers to complete the sweep, driving Milwaukee up from -115 to -120.

At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 67% of moneyline bets but 75% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing the short home chalk.

Home favorites off a win who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 132-65 (67%) with a 5% ROI this season.

Milwaukee is 26-11 (70%) with a 17% ROI as a home favorite, the 3rd best home chalk team in MLB.

The Brewers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.

Imanaga has a 4.13 ERA in five July starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched.

Meanwhile, Peralta has a 2.51 ERA in five July starts. Milwaukee is 7-1 in Peralta’s last 8 starts. He is 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA at home this season.

The Brewers are hitting .260 against lefties, 4th best in MLB.

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