Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 5 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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8:15 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 45.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

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The Chiefs (2-2) just took down the Ravens 37-20 last week, winning outright as 2.5-point home dogs. Similarly, the Jaguars (3-1) just upset the 49ers 26-21, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 3-point road favorite.

The public thinks this line is way too short and 71% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Chiefs. This lopsided support pushed Kansas City up from -3 to -3.5.

However, since the hook has become available we’ve seen some sneaky sharp buyback on Jacksonville, as several shops are juicing up the Jaguars +3.5 (-115).

Jacksonville has notable “bet against the public” value as the Jaguars are only receiving 29% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game.

At DraftKings, the Jaguars are receiving 29% of spread bets and 38% of spread dollars. At Circa, Jacksonville is taking in 25% of spread bets and 30% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home dog.

Primetime dogs, like the Jaguars here, are 10-5 ATS (67%) this season and 151-131 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. Primetime dogs getting 3.5-points or more are 105-78 ATS (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2020. Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less are 176-151 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2018.

In his regular season career, Patrick Mahomes is just 37-46 ATS (45%) when favored by 3.5-points or more. Mahomes is also just 1-5 ATS in his last six Monday Night Football games (all as favorites).

In terms of the total, we’ve seen the line tick up from 44.5 to 45.5. Some shops even briefly touched as high as 47 before some inflated under buyback brought the line back down to where it stands now.

This buyback is notable because the public is pounding the over (71% of bets at DraftKings) yet the total fell. At Circa, the under is taking in 51% of bets but 71% of dollars, a wiseguy bet discrepancy in favor of a lower scoring game.

Primetime unders are 9-8 (53%) this season and 199-144 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019.

The weather forecast calls for mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and 7-10 MPH winds at EverBank Stadium, with gusts up to 20 MPH.

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