Super Bowl Sunday is finally here as the Seattle Seahawks face the New England Patriots at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for the big game using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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6:30 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks (-4.5, 45.5) vs New England Patriots

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The Seahawks (16-3) are the 1-seed and just held off the Rams 31-27 in the NFC Championship game, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Patriots (17-3) are the 2-seed and just outlasted the Broncos 10-7 in the AFC Championship game but failed to cover as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Seattle listed as low as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite.

The public thinks this line is too short and 59% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Seahawks.

Early in the week, we saw Seattle creep up from -3.5 to -4.5. However, since that time we’ve seen a sharp “line freeze” develop as the Patriots have remained stagnant at +4.5 even though the public is backing the Seahawks minus the points. In other words, oddsmakers seem reluctant to hand out New England +5 despite the majority of tickets taking Seattle.

The Patriots offer notable “bet against the public” value as New England is only receiving 41% of spread bets at DraftKings in the most heavily bet sporting event of the year.

At Circa, New England is receiving 32% of spread bets and 43% of spread dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the unpopular dog plus the points.

The Patriots also match several profitable betting systems.

Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 4-1 ATS this postseason and 30-13 ATS (70%) with a 35% ROI since 2020. Playoff dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 2-1 ATS this postseason and 33-24 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2017.

Super Bowl dogs are 15-7 ATS (68%) with a 32% ROI since 2004. Super Bowl dogs getting 3-points or more are 11-4 ATS (73%) with a 42% ROI since 2004. Super Bowl dogs getting 4.5-points or more are 9-1 ATS (90%) with a 74% ROI since 2004.

Those looking to back New England but also gain some additional wiggle room could elect to target the Patriots in a teaser. By taking New England up from +4.5 to +10.5, value-minded bettors can pass through they key numbers of 7 and 10.

The Seahawks have gone 14-5 ATS this season, including 12-4 ATS as a favorite. The Patriots are 14-6 ATS this season, including 4-2 ATS as a dog.

In his career, Mike Vrabel is 33-24 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI as a dog.

When it comes to the moneyline, we are seeing 58% of bets and 59% of dollars at DraftKings taking the Patriots +195. Meanwhile, Circa is showing 53% of bets and 57% of dollars on Patriots +190. Seattle is currently priced between -220 and -240.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 46.5 to 45.5.

At DraftKings, the under is taking in 54% of bets and 55% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 39% of bets and 29% of dollars.

Both teams play stingy defense, with Seattle giving up 17.1 PPG (1st in the NFL) and New England allowing 17.3 PPG (2nd). Both teams also rank in the bottom half in pace of play, with the Patriots ranking 17th in plays per game and the Seahawks ranking 24th.

The forecast calls for mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5-7 MPH winds.

Super Bowl MVP (DraftKings)

Sam Darnold +120

Drake Maye +240

Jaxon Smith-Njigba +500

Kenneth Walker +850

Rhamondre Stevenson +2800

Rashid Shaheed +3000

Stefon Diggs +4500

Marcus Jones +6000

TreVeyon Henderson +7500

Cooper Kupp +8000

The post Top Picks from the NFL Betting Splits for Seahawks-Patriots on Super Bowl Sunday February 8th appeared first on VSiN.