The first round of the NFL Playoffs wraps up tonight with a Wild Card showdown between the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime postseason grudge match using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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8:15 p.m. ET: Houston Texans (-3, 38.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

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The Texans (12-5) have won nine straight games and just outlasted the Colts 38-30 but failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Steelers (10-7) have won four of their last five and just edged the Ravens 26-24, winning outright as 4.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Houston listed as a 3-point road favorite.

The public thinks this line is a bit short and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Texans.

Early in the week, this lopsided betting pushed Houston up from -3 to -3.5.

However, once the hook became available we saw sharp action hammer the Steelers, dropping Pittsburgh back down from +3.5 to +3. On game day, the Steelers are being juiced up +3 (-115), signaling further liability on the home dog and a possible dip down to 2.5.

In other words, we are seeing a sharp “line freeze” and some sneaky reverse line movement in favor of the home dog, as the line has either stayed the same or dipped back down toward the Steelers despite the public siding with the road chalk Texans.

Pittsburgh offers notable “bet against the public” value as the Steelers are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game on ESPN.

Playoff dogs, like the Steelers here, are 4-1 ATS this postseason and 64-39 ATS (62%) with a 21% ROI since 2017. Wild Card dogs specifically are now 31-16 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017.

Short playoff dogs +3 or less are 2-0 ATS this postseason and 28-10 ATS (74%) with a 44% ROI since 2017.

Mike Tomlin has thrived in the underdog role historically, going 70-42 ATS (63%) with a 21% ROI when catching points in his career.

In addition, Aaron Rodgers is 40-32 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI as a dog in his career, including 6-3 ATS (67%) with a 28% ROI as a dog in the postseason.

Meanwhile, C.J. Stroud is 14-9 ATS (61%) as a dog in his career but just 11-16 ATS (41%) as a favorite.

Pittsburgh features correlative betting value as a dog in a super low total game (38), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.

The Steelers also welcome back star WR DK Metcalf, who missed the last two games due to suspension.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 39.5 to 38.5, with some shops inching down to 38.

At DraftKings, the under is taking in 50% of bets and 54% of dollars. At Circa, the under is receiving 58% of bets and 76% of dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy bet split in favor of a lower scoring game.

Wild Card weekend unders are 3-2 this postseason and 28-19 (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2017. Primetime unders are 142-103 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2022, including 10-4 (71%) with a 36% ROI in the postseason.

The forecast calls for chilly 30 degree weather with clear skies and 7-10 MPH winds.

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