Tuley’s Takes: MLB Championship Series Best Bets:

We’ve really enjoyed the MLB playoffs here in the Tuley’s Takes home office. Now we’re down to the Final Four with the MLB Championship Series.

The Blue Jays and Dodgers only needed four games apiece to dispose of the Yankees and Phillies, respectively, while the Mariners-Tigers and Cubs-Brewers series going the full five games.

With the Mariners outlasting the Tigers 3-2 late Friday night in 15 innings (classic pitchers’ duel in a winner-take-all game), I’ll give my “takes” on the Mariners-Blue Jays in the ALCS and then add the NLCS after the Cubs-Brewers Game 5 series concludes Saturday night.

Seattle Mariners vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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Series price: Blue Jays -135 / Mariners +115
Game 1: Blue Jays -160 / Mariners +140 (Over/Under 7.5, Over -120 / Under +100)

Tuley’s Take: The Blue Jays had the better regular-season record (by four wins) to earn home-field advantage in the ALCS with the meeting of the Junior Circuit’s top two teams. They also won the season series 4-2—though the last meeting was five months ago in May—so we get why Toronto is a decent-sized series favorite. 

They also sure look like the better overall team, especially as they didn’t show any rust from their first-round bye and dominated the Yankees by scores of 10-1, 13-1 and 5-2 with the only loss being 9-6 in Game 3. That’s an average of 8.5 runs per game to 4.8 allowed.

I get that the Mariners had a much harder time, averaging just four runs per game (though they had to face Tarik Skubal twice, so kudos for overcoming that 100-mph speed bump) and also allowing 4 runs per game in a very even series that went 15 innings to decide a classic Game 5. Despite losing the season series, I believe the Mariners can turn the tables in the ALCS.

So, I’ll take the Mariners at +115 on the series price and also +140 in Game 1. There’s particular value there as I think the oddsmakers have jacked up the Game 1 price (especially relative to the series price) because of the conventional wisdom out there that the Mariners went through a tough series and had to use all pitchers available just to survive Game 5 while the Blue Jays were able to set their rotation by finishing their series more than two days earlier.

But as much as I like the Mariners, this should be a long series that goes at least six games, and I see value on both teams as underdogs. So, after betting the Mariners in Game 1, I expect I’ll be on them again in Game 2, but then expect to bet on the Blue Jays at plus-money in the Seattle games as they should have more than a 50/50 chance to win those road games. If this series goes at least six games, I could see dogs going 4-2, though we’d only need to go 3-3 to be profitable with those individual games.

It should be a fun series to bet and watch.

Best Bets: Mariners +115 to win series and +140 in Game 1, plus anytime as underdog in series, but also Blue Jays when dogs.

Cubs/Brewers winner vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Series price: TBD
Game 1: TBD

Tuley’s Take: To be posted Sunday.

Best Bets: To be posted Sunday.

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