Tuley’s Takes: MLB Over/Under Season Win Totals:

We love this time of year in the Tuley’s Takes home office as we’re still in the midst of March Madness, but last Saturday was the first day of spring when a young (and old) man’s fancy lightly turns to baseball (apologies to Alfred Lord Tennyson). We’re excited about the baseball season as we try to defend our title in the Westgate’s Pro Baseball Wins Challenge after going 23-7 last year with our MLB Over/Under picks on all 30 teams. It helped that we stuck to our handicapping and took the Cubs Over 86.5 and Dodgers Under 104.5, even though LA had swept Chicago 2-0 in the Japan Series in mid-March after the MLB Over/Under lines were set for the contest and a full week before the entry deadline.

But enough looking back, as we can’t rest on our laurels. Here are my favorite Over and Unders for this season, with one from each league.

Chicago Cubs Over 89.5

I know I’m opening myself up to this being called a homer pick as I grew up as a die-hard Cubbies fan in the Chicago suburbs, but we hit this last year when the Cubs won 92 games and even though they lost Kyle Tucker to free agency, they signed 3B Alex Bregman to their already potent lineup and have one of the best and deepest starting rotations in the majors.

In addition, manager Craig Counsell named Daniel Palencia as the team’s closer, and he was part of a closer-by-committee group last season before mostly working middle relief in high-leverage situations during the postseason. He certainly looked ready to be an elite closer after his five no-hit innings and 0.00 ERA for Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic with three saves. That makes them a complete team and the most confident I’ve felt heading into a season since the 2016 World Series campaign.

Again, I know I’m being a homer here, but when going over the futures markets, I can’t help but see the Cubs as the biggest value play on the board at +850 to win the NL pennant and +1600 to win the World Series. I didn’t bet them in 2016, so I don’t want to miss out this time.

Detroit Tigers Over 86

Staying in the Central but moving to the AL, the Tigers were running away with the division last year, leading the Guardians by a whopping 12 games at the All-Star Break and looking like they would coast to the division and contend for a first-round bye. However, they limped to the regular-season finish line at 7-16 in September and finished 1 game behind the Guardians, though they did go Over their win total of 83.5 with 87 victories. The two teams met in the Wild Card round, with the Tigers getting revenge with a 2-1 series win before losing 3-2 to the Mariners in the divisional round.

The Tigers are the clear-cut AL Central favorite this season (around +120) in the weakest division in baseball and should get at least 87 wins again if they can avoid a disastrous month. In addition to Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal being back after winning his arbitration case, the team added Framber Valdez to the rotation as well as Gleyber Torres to the lineup, as the team continues to do a better job of adding talent around their star pitcher, unlike the Pirates with Paul Skenes.

Washington Nationals Under 64.5

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Sometimes teams are so bad that oddsmakers can’t set their win totals low enough, so even though it looks like a square play to fade the worst teams. That certainly looked to be the case with the Rockies and Nationals during the offseason. The Rockies opened with the lowest win total in the majors at 52.5, while the Nationals were set at 65.5, with the White Sox and the Cardinals the only other teams below 70. An interesting thing has happened in the market as the Rockies have been a popular Over pick and have been steamed to 57.5 at Circa Sports.

I’m tempted to fade that move with the Rockies being the weakest team in the NL West, but the stronger play looks to be on the Nationals Under – even though it’s down to 64.5 as of Tuesday – because Washington hasn’t done as much to improve its roster (James Woods and CJ Abrams are solid, but where else will the runs come from). And the pitcher is worse after trading mediocre ace MacKenzie Gore to the Rangers in the off-season after dealing closer Kyle Finnegan last summer.

Houston Astros Under 84.5

From 2017-2023, the Astros made the ALCS in seven straight years with World Series titles in 2017 and 2022. They were right on the verge of being called a dynasty (and probably would have been if not for the sign-stealing scandal, aka “Garbage Cangate”), but the current team is a far cry from those years after losing more and more stars to free agency. They won 87 games last season, but they should be closer to .500 after the Mariners bypassed them as the top team in the AL West, and the rest of the division looks improved (or at least the Rangers and A’s – if I had another MLB Over/Under play in the AL, it would be Angels Under 70.5).

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