Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 4:

“That’s more like it,” I said to myself in the Tuley’s Takes home office on Monday night as the Lions wrapped up their upset of the Ravens to close out NFL Week 3.

After a disappointing 1-4 against-the-spread record in Week 2, I only had four ATS Best Bets in this weekly column and swept them with the Dolphins +11.5 in their 31-21 loss at the Bills on Thursday Night Football, Panthers +6 in their 30-0 home rout vs. the Falcons, Jets +6.5 in their 29-27 loss at the Buccaneers and the Lions +4.5 in their 38-30 win at the Ravens on Monday night. The only other ATS play I hinted at was the Broncos +3 at the Chargers, which was a push if you got the right number. Anyway, that improved our official Best Bets to 8-6 ATS (57.1%) as we’re back over .500 and to respectability.

Week 3 was another profitable week for 2-team, 6-point teasers, even if paying overinflated juice (though we always advise to shop around for the best prices) as our first recommended play on the Bengals +8.5 at the Vikings lost in a 48-10 rout, but we hit every other combo with our eligible teasers with the Patriots +7.5, Texans +8, Broncos +8.5/+9, Seahawks -1 and Cardinals +8.5.

Without further ado, let’s get to NFL Week 5. For the uninitiated, I’ll give my “take” on each NFL matchup (full 16-game card again for Week 4 before we start to his some bye weeks, including an international game early Sunday morning and a Monday doubleheader)  and will be from the point of view of trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. Even if I don’t have an official Best Bet, I’ll still at least give my patent-pending “pool play” strategy for those who play in contests where they have to pick every game.

Here we go in rotation order.

THURSDAY

Seattle (-1) at Arizona

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Tuley’s Take: This week’s Thursday nighter is actually pretty important in the NFC West as these teams are 2-1 and tied for second place along with the Rams behind the 3-0 49ers, who are dealing with a lot of injuries, so the division is up for grabs. The advance line last week was Cardinals -2.5, before Seattle routed New Orleans 44-13, and Arizona lost (but covered) in a 16-15 loss at San Fran. The Cardinals reopened as a short 1- to 1.5-point chalk, but early action has flipped the Seahawks to favoritism. My original thought was taking the Seahawks in teasers, but that’s gone in what should be a one-score game.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass or possibly Cardinals +7.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers to Sunday/Monday games (pool play: Seahawks 60/40 in rare SU & ATS contests that use Thursday games).

SUNDAY

Minnesota (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh

London, England

Tuley’s Take: We get our first international game of the season here (I’ve always been in full support of more standalone NFL games to bet, but not crazy about 6:30 a.m. PT starts to Sunday action). Anyway, the advance line last week was Steelers -1 before the Vikings routed the Bengals 48-10, and the Steelers eked out a 21-14 win at the Patriots. We again saw a change of favorites with the Vikings re-opened as 1-point neutral-site favorites. Early bettors have steamed this to -2.5, so it’s in our “teaser zone” where we can capture both the key numbers of 3 and 7 with the Steelers. Carson Wentz was fine in his first start for the Vikings in place of J.J. McCarthy, who is expected to miss this week, too, though the rout was mostly due to Isaiah Rodgers’ three forced turnovers, including two defensive TDs. Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers should definitely be able to keep this a one-score game. My favorite other eligible teaser teams this week are: Texans -1 vs. Titans, Chiefs +8.5 vs. Ravens, Jets +8.5 at Dolphins and Broncos -1 vs. Bengals (plus some others that are on the cusp that I’ll discuss below if you’re looking for more teaser options).

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Steelers +8.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Steelers 55/45 in ATS contests, but Vikings 60/40 in SU pools).

Philadelphia (-3.5) at Tampa Bay

Tuley’s Take: The advance line was Eagles -2.5, so I thought this was going to be in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio, but the line has continued to rise. I’m not sure why, so I’m actually preferring the Bucs +3.5 as a straight bet. We all saw the wild endings of these two teams’ games on Sunday with the Bucs (-6.5) re-rallying to beat the Jets 29-27 on a last-second FG and the Eagles (-3.5) rallying to hold a late lead and then blocking a FG on the last play of the game and running it back for a TD to win 33-26 for the miracle cover. So, why was this line reopened at Eagles -3 and bet to 3.5? The defending champion Eagles are obviously a very public team, but the Bucs can match them score for score as they’re used to playing close games down to the wire (3-0 by a combined six points). We have a live home dog here against an Eagles team that is also 3-0, but no easy wins either.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Buccaneers +3.5 (pool play: Buccaneers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 65/35 in SU pools).

New Orleans at Buffalo (-16)

Tuley’s Take: We were thrilled to win with the Dolphins +11.5 at the Bills last Thursday, but we’re not gonna bite on the Saints getting even more points on Sunday. We usually don’t see a line this high this early in the season, but the Saints have been that bad. I’m proud that I’ve passed on them in their first three games (+5.5 vs. Cardinals, +3 vs. 49ers and +7 at Seahawks) and still not ready to back them even with way more than double digits.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Bills 55/45 in ATS contests and 100/0 in SU pools).

Carolina at New England (-5.5)

Tuley’s Take: Here’s another line that has been rising, and again, I’m happy to fade the move. The advance line last week was Patriots -5 before they lost 21-14 vs. the Steelers, and the Panthers (we had +6, closed +4.5) routed the Falcons 30-0. It reopened Pats -4, but for some reason it quickly got bet to 5 and now 5.5 as of deadline late Wednesday afternoon. The Patriots, who are admittedly improved under Mike Vrabel, have only beaten the Dolphins with losses to the Raiders and Steelers, while the Panthers just have that one win over the Falcons but are 2-1 ATS. Gimme the points again.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Panthers +5.5 (pool play: Panthers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Patriots still 60/40 in SU pools).

Washington (-1) at Atlanta

Tuley’s Take: There is some uncertainty with this game as Jayden Daniels missed Week 3 with Marcus Mariota beating his former team in the Raiders, 41-24. We’re waiting to see if Daniels will be able to go this week (as well as WR Terry McLaurin), so the line has been wavering around -1 and -1.5. I considered the Falcons in teasers, but that awful performance vs. the Panthers isn’t a confidence booster (though I usually “trade on bad news”). I wouldn’t even like the Falcons if this went over a field goal with Daniels starting, so I think it’s best to also pass on the teasers if I’m not that confident in them keeping this competitive.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Commanders 60/40 in all SU and ATS contests).

Cleveland at Detroit (-10)

Tuley’s Take: Now, unlike the Saints, here’s a double-digit dog I can get behind (and, in fact, already have). The advance line was Lions -8.5 last week before the Browns upset the Packers 13-10 and reopened Lions -8 on Sunday night before they upset the Ravens 38-30 on Monday night. This line shot back up to -9.5 and now to 10 by Wednesday. The Lions have certainly bounced back from their Week 1 loss to the Packers, but the Browns are 2-1 ATS as they’ve been competitive with Joe Flacco except for their loss to the Ravens. I’ll take the bonus points with them due to a solid defense that can help them stick around again, just like they did against the Packers.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Browns +10 (pool play: Browns 60/40 in ATS contests, but Lions 90/10 in SU pools).

Tennessee at Houston (-7)

Tuley’s Take: The Texans were the preseason favorites to win the AFC South and now have an uphill battle after a 3-0 start. But they should right the ship here against a Titans team that is still going through growing pains with rookie QB Cam Ward. Tennessee did cover in its 20-12 Week 1 loss at Denver, but they’ve been overmatched the last two weeks vs. the Rams and Colts. I expect the Texans to roll. However, you know I don’t like betting chalk (at least ATS), so this is one of my key games in my Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Texans -1/-1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Texans 60/40 in SU & ATS contests).

Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) at New York Giants

Tuley’s Take: The Jaxson Dart era begins in New York, I guess. But I’m not ready to jump on the bandwagon. With Russell Wilson, the 37-point outburst vs. Dallas in Week 2 was the outlier (and we saw the Cowboys defense isn’t what it used to be after being shredded by Caleb Williams and the Bears this past Sunday). Jim Harbaugh has the Chargers (3-0) heading in the right direction. I’m not about to fade them until I get more points (and the right underdog).

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Chargers 55/45 in ATS contests and 70/30 in SU pools).

Jacksonville at San Francisco (-3.5)

Tuley’s Take: I’m still bummed about the Jaguars failing to cover +3.5 in Week 2 against the Bengals after leading the whole game, only to lose 31-27 and fail to cover by half a point. They should really be 3-0 with their wins over the Panthers and Texans. The 49ers, meanwhile, are 3-0 by a combined 10 points with narrow wins over the Seahawks, Saints and Cardinals. And the 26-21 win at the Saints in Week 2 was only a cover as the line dipped from -7 to -3 with Mac Jones starting for Brock Purdy. The former Mr. Irrelevant is expected back, so that’s why we’re getting more than a FG, and we’ll take it.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Jaguars +3.5 (pool play: Jaguars 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 60/40 in SU pools).

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams (-3.5)

Tuley’s Take: When the next week’s lines come out each Sunday afternoon/night, I try to grab some early lines if I think they’ll be gone during the week. This week’s early play was the Colts +4 at Circa Sports, and it’s been slowly coming down (I hope that’s due to sharp money seeing the same things I am). The Rams played great against the Eagles – until the end – but I don’t see them that much better than the Colts, who still only have punted once behind Daniel Jones, somehow looking like the second coming of Peyton Manning. This should be another shootout, and again, I love getting more than a field goal in a game coming down to the wire between two equally matched teams.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Colts +3.5 (pool play: Colts 65/35 in ATS contests, lower if it goes to +3, but Rams still 60/40 in SU pools).

Chicago at Las Vegas (-1)

Tuley’s Take: New coach Ben Johnson finally got the Bears’ offense out of hibernation in the 31-14 win vs. the Cowboys, while the Raiders lost their second straight game, but I’m still not ready to jump on the Bears’ bandwagon. They were on my short list of teaser plays this week, but I’d need it to get to +1.5 to tease it up over a touchdown, and I’m not even sure I’ll add them. Besides, several books are down to pick ’em.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass (pool play: Raiders 55/45 in SU & ATS contests).

Baltimore (-2.5/-3) at Kansas City

Tuley’s Take: I have no such reservations about using the Chiefs in teasers of this marquee matchup on Sunday afternoon, with both these top AFC teams scuffling at 1-2 with the loser staring at a 1-3 start to the season. This should be a back-and-forth battle that comes down to the final possession and another one-score game where we love to be holding plenty of teaser tickets. I’m hoping to be live to the Chiefs from some of my previously mentioned games in the early Sunday window, but am also starting new teasers with Chiefs +8.5 to the Jets +8.5 at the Dolphins and the Broncos -1 on Monday.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Chiefs +8.5/+9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Chiefs 55/45 in ATS contest, but Ravens 60/40 in SU pools).

Green Bay (-6.5/-7) at Dallas

Tuley’s Take: The advanced line on this game was only Packers -4.5. You would think it would have been more likely to drop with their 13-10 loss at the Browns, but then the Cowboys got blown out 31-14 by the lowly Bears, and oddsmakers still raised it to Packers -6 on Sunday night. I’ve been waffling back and forth about whether I’d like the Cowboys if the line got to +7 or if I should just tease the Packers down to -0.5 or -1. For now, I’ll officially pass as I feel my other plays are stronger this week.

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Pass for now, possibly add Cowboys if +7 (pool play: Cowboys 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +7, but Packers still 75/25 in SU pools).

MONDAY

New York Jets at Miami (-2.5/-3)

Tuley’s Take: As I said in the Bills breakdown, I was thrilled to cash with the Dolphins +11.5 last Thursday night. I know Justin Fields still might not be back for the Jets, but I’m not so sure the right team is favored. We cashed again with probably the most underrated ATS quarterback of all time, Tyrod Taylor, and the Jets +6.5 in their 29-27 loss at the Buccaneers. If I get Jets +3 in my contests this week, I might add them to some tickets, but I still think the better play is to have several tickets to Jets in teasers..

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Jets +8.5/+9 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Jets 55/45 in ATS contests, but Dolphins 60/40 in SU pools).

Cincinnati at Denver (-7/-7.5)

Tuley’s Take: Monday should be a big day for the Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio with the aforementioned Jets game and then the Broncos in the nightcap. After the way the Bengals laid an egg in Minnesota with Jake Browning at QB, I’m leery of taking the points with them, and the play is to anchor more teasers to the Broncos (and I already have with more to come as the weekend draws near).

NFL Week 4 Best Bet: Broncos -1/-1.5 in 2-team, 6-point teasers (pool play: Bengals 55/45 in ATS contests, but Broncos 75/25 in SU pools).

For more Week 4 NFL predictions and analysis, visit the Week 4 NFL Hub, exclusively on VSiN.

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